When the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline arrived
with the Blue Jays realistically out of contention, it was expected that some
superfluous pieces (to varying degrees) such as Casey Janssen, Darren Oliver,
Rajai Davis and Emilio Bonifacio would be moved for low-level prospects or
financial relief. Instead the deadline
came and went with the Blue Jays making no transactions at all. Since that time, Emilio Bonifacio has cleared
waivers and been traded to the Kansas City Royals for a player to be named
later (PTBNL) or cash. While this represents
a logical start to moves for the Blue Jays, two more players should be
jettisoned for some value as they are both impending free agents and unlikely
to return – Darren Oliver and Rajai Davis.
Moving Oliver is the easiest move the Blue Jays can
make for the rest of the season. With a
pair of strong southpaw relievers in Brett Cecil and Aaron Loup, Oliver has
been relegated to the third left-handed option in the bullpen. He was also behind Juan Perez until the
latter tore his UCL two weeks ago.
Oliver is 42 years old and is likely in his last season, although
speculation of his pending retirement has existed for years. He has had difficulty getting his curveball
in the zone versus left-handed hitters, making him unsuitable for high-leverage
work, but he could be appealing in a low-leverage role for a team like the
Yankees, Tigers, or Orioles who have all dealt with bullpen issues throughout
the year. The Tigers are probably the best
fit as Leyland likes having veteran arms in his bullpen and Phil Coke, his
lower-leverage left-handed option has battled control problems (9.6% walk
rate). Oliver could be replaced by
Mickey Storey in the short term, in whom the Blue Jays could have another arm
similar to Neil Wagner, and should ultimately be replaced by Luis Perez, who
should return from Tommy John surgery in a couple of weeks. Trading Oliver would represent a cost savings
of $639,000
While trading Rajai Davis would bring back the greater
value of the pair, the Blue Jays current roster construction makes it
considerably more difficult. At the
non-waiver trading deadline, the Blue Jays had the flexibility to trade Davis,
but with Rasmus and Cabrera both on the disabled list and Bautista now nursing
a sore hip the Blue Jays outfield depth has been stretched to the limit. Kevin Pillar and Anthony Gose have both been
recalled from Buffalo and were sharing left and centre field with Davis, with
Bautista manning right field, but now the Blue Jays have placed Bautista
on the disabled list and recalled
Moises Sierra.
Davis is an impending free agent and his skill set may
be more difficult to replace than would appear at first glance. Using the list of 2014 Free Agents indicated
as centre fielders (a must for a fourth outfielder) by MLB
Trade Rumours, I sorted for players more productive than
Davis against left-handed pitching (career 112 wRC+ vs. LHP). There
were two – Franklin Gutierrez at 124 and Chris Young at 122
(Andres Torres at 105 was the only other player better than league average). Of those four Davis has accumulated the same
value of BsR – the sum of wSB
(linear weights of stolen base in runs above average) and Ultimate Base Running
(UBR),
which values non-stolen base baserunning events also using runs above average
(making UBR similar to UZR) – as the other three combined. While Gutierrez and Young may provide better
offensive value vs. LHP, the speed is a factor that neither can even begin to
compensate for, making Davis’ skill set rather unique.
One cheaper option may be an internal fix, where Gose
and Pillar platoon in left field, the team to goes back to a seven-man bullpen
and the Blue Jays find a right-handed platoon power bat to pair with Lind and
some cheap speed. Of course this would
require jettisoning Melky Cabrera on a club that feels his leg issues were turf
related. One year at $8M is a reasonable
contract for Cabrera, making it potentially desirable.
The Blue Jays could potentially trade Davis with a
handshake agreement to return, but he would be under no obligation to hold to
that and Major League Baseball may even consider such an agreement to be
tampering as Davis’ new club would have a window of exclusive negotiating rights
from the time of the trade until the opening of free agency.
Despite this, I would like to see Davis moved (cost
savings $533,000) as he could have value to a potential playoff team. Cincinnati seems like the most logical
landing spot as he could replace Xavier Paul, he of -5 wRC+ in 81 PA vs.
LHP. Heisey edges Paul in wRC+ vs. RHP
103 to 100 and Heisey’s mark vs. southpaws is 82. Heisey is vastly superior to Paul and Davis
would give the Reds a much improved second outfield option off the bench, along
with a pinch-runner they sorely lack.
Other teams such as Oakland, Boston and Baltimore
either lack room on the bench or need help in the other side of a platoon, but
could use him as a pinch-runner if they desired to, although this would be a
sub-optimal use of roster space. Another
club could claim him off waivers (thereby blocking Cincinnati from trading for
him) and the Blue Jays could work out a trade with them, but a trade to
Cincinnati for a mid-level prospect makes the most sense for both parties. I would be surprised and yet not overly
disappointed if Rajai Davis is a Blue Jays on September 1.
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