Sunday, December 16, 2012

Top 20 Prospects: #4 Daniel Norris LHP




#4 Daniel Norris LHP

Born:  April 25, 1993 in Johnson City, Tennessee, US (Age 19)
Acquired via: 2011 Draft. 2nd Round from Science Hill HS (Johnson City, TN).
Bats: Left, Throws: Left
Height: 6' 2", Weight: 180 lb.
Baseball America Rank: Not Listed (Pre Marlins Trade)
Baseball Prospectus Rank: #7
Fan Graphs Rank: #6
MLB.com Rank: #4 (#91 in MLB; #7 LHP)
Minor League Ball Rank: #8


2012 Stats and Analysis:
Team/Level
W-L
IP
ERA
WHIP
K/9
BB/9
BABIP
FIP
HR/9
Bluefield
(Rk)
2-3
35.0
7.97
1.629
9.8
3.3
.367
3.80
1.0
Vancouver (A-)
0-1
7.2
10.57
2.478
5.9
5.9
.452
3.85
0.0
Total
2-4
42.2
8.44
1.781
9.1
3.8
.382
3.81
0.8










At first glance, Norris’ stats look horrific, and they are, but if the FIP shows you anything it’s that he was terribly unlucky to have stats THIS bad. Norris is quite raw and I presume that’s the reasoning for his troubles, at his age and at this level the coaching staff could have has him working on anything. Getting Norris to focus on a certain lesser pitcher, for example, could be cause for the poor numbers. Also, Norris has a BABIP of a combined .382, which is completely unrealistic. That, along with the good FIP and terribly short sample size lead me to believe Norris was terribly unlucky in his first minor league stint. Although the numbers wouldn’t justify it, the scouts still adore Norris and his electric stuff, getting nothing but good reports. As always, stats mean next to nothing in short season ball, so putting meaning into his 2012 stats, and not going by what the scouts say, isn't something you should be doing. Which brings us to his...

Scouting Report
Norris has a smooth delivery from the ¾ slot, but has a tendency to drag out and be too long. Norris has a four pitch mix, of which, three could end up being plus to plus-plus pitches. His FB sits comfortably in the low 90s with good sinking action, but can be pumped up to 94-95mph if need be. Norris shows good feel for his CH that sits roughly 10mph slower in the low 80s with good deception and movement, which is currently his go-to second pitch. His curveball has plus-plus potential. It sits in the mid 70s with some hard-late bite. Norris could be a good starter with three plus pitches, but if he develops the slider into a decent secondary pitch it could be the difference between good and great.



2013? Projection? ETA?
Norris will presumably start 2013 in Extended Spring Training, and then find himself in Vancouver (A-), and possibly Lansing (A) by the end of the year. All eyes will be on Norris this year to see if last year was really just unlucky. With a solid year, Norris could find himself giving Sanchez a run for Top Blue Jays Prospect next year. Norris’ ceiling is high, but that comes with risk. The perfect world projection is a high #2 starter with nasty stuff. Though at this point, a solid #3 starter seems more likely. Because of his left-handed-ness,if he does struggle as a starter he could easily make the transition and be an elite set-up man--worse case. If all goes right, Norris could be Toronto-bound by late 2015, and a 2016 shot at the rotation seems likely. Prospects everybody. We have a ton of them. The Dickey trade doesn't cripple our system.

2 comments:

  1. I followed him closely last season and he was confusing. He would strike out the side one inning like he was Roger Clemens in his prime and then the next inning he would give up 4-5 straight hits to guys batting in the .100s. Bi-polar to say the least. Hopefully he can get it together and KEEP it together, otherwise I don't see him reaching AAA much less the bigs.

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  2. I think with good coaching and a solid work ethic in the off season, this guy could go really far. He's still very young and has time to acknowledge his weaknesses and fine tune his game. This 2013 season will really define his place with the Jays and the big leagues. I personally see a ton of potential and I would be surprised if he didn't make his way up to the MLB in the next 5 years.

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