August Trade Candidates

When the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline arrived with the Blue Jays realistically out of contention, it was expected that some superfluous pieces (to varying degrees) such as Casey Janssen, Darren Oliver, Rajai Davis and Emilio Bonifacio would be moved for low-level prospects or financial relief.  Instead the deadline came and went with the Blue Jays making no transactions at all.  Since that time, Emilio Bonifacio has cleared waivers and been traded to the Kansas City Royals for a player to be named later (PTBNL) or cash.  While this represents a logical start to moves for the Blue Jays, two more players should be jettisoned for some value as they are both impending free agents and unlikely to return – Darren Oliver and Rajai Davis.

Moving Oliver is the easiest move the Blue Jays can make for the rest of the season.  With a pair of strong southpaw relievers in Brett Cecil and Aaron Loup, Oliver has been relegated to the third left-handed option in the bullpen.  He was also behind Juan Perez until the latter tore his UCL two weeks ago.  Oliver is 42 years old and is likely in his last season, although speculation of his pending retirement has existed for years.  He has had difficulty getting his curveball in the zone versus left-handed hitters, making him unsuitable for high-leverage work, but he could be appealing in a low-leverage role for a team like the Yankees, Tigers, or Orioles who have all dealt with bullpen issues throughout the year.  The Tigers are probably the best fit as Leyland likes having veteran arms in his bullpen and Phil Coke, his lower-leverage left-handed option has battled control problems (9.6% walk rate).  Oliver could be replaced by Mickey Storey in the short term, in whom the Blue Jays could have another arm similar to Neil Wagner, and should ultimately be replaced by Luis Perez, who should return from Tommy John surgery in a couple of weeks.  Trading Oliver would represent a cost savings of $639,000

While trading Rajai Davis would bring back the greater value of the pair, the Blue Jays current roster construction makes it considerably more difficult.  At the non-waiver trading deadline, the Blue Jays had the flexibility to trade Davis, but with Rasmus and Cabrera both on the disabled list and Bautista now nursing a sore hip the Blue Jays outfield depth has been stretched to the limit.  Kevin Pillar and Anthony Gose have both been recalled from Buffalo and were sharing left and centre field with Davis, with Bautista manning right field, but now the Blue Jays have placed Bautista on the disabled list and recalled Moises Sierra.

Davis is an impending free agent and his skill set may be more difficult to replace than would appear at first glance.  Using the list of 2014 Free Agents indicated as centre fielders (a must for a fourth outfielder) by MLB Trade Rumours, I sorted for players more productive than Davis against left-handed pitching (career 112 wRC+ vs. LHP).  There were two – Franklin Gutierrez at 124 and Chris Young at 122 (Andres Torres at 105 was the only other player better than league average).  Of those four Davis has accumulated the same value of BsR – the sum of wSB (linear weights of stolen base in runs above average) and Ultimate Base Running (UBR), which values non-stolen base baserunning events also using runs above average (making UBR similar to UZR) – as the other three combined.  While Gutierrez and Young may provide better offensive value vs. LHP, the speed is a factor that neither can even begin to compensate for, making Davis’ skill set rather unique.

One cheaper option may be an internal fix, where Gose and Pillar platoon in left field, the team to goes back to a seven-man bullpen and the Blue Jays find a right-handed platoon power bat to pair with Lind and some cheap speed.  Of course this would require jettisoning Melky Cabrera on a club that feels his leg issues were turf related.  One year at $8M is a reasonable contract for Cabrera, making it potentially desirable.

The Blue Jays could potentially trade Davis with a handshake agreement to return, but he would be under no obligation to hold to that and Major League Baseball may even consider such an agreement to be tampering as Davis’ new club would have a window of exclusive negotiating rights from the time of the trade until the opening of free agency.

Despite this, I would like to see Davis moved (cost savings $533,000) as he could have value to a potential playoff team.  Cincinnati seems like the most logical landing spot as he could replace Xavier Paul, he of -5 wRC+ in 81 PA vs. LHP.  Heisey edges Paul in wRC+ vs. RHP 103 to 100 and Heisey’s mark vs. southpaws is 82.  Heisey is vastly superior to Paul and Davis would give the Reds a much improved second outfield option off the bench, along with a pinch-runner they sorely lack.

Other teams such as Oakland, Boston and Baltimore either lack room on the bench or need help in the other side of a platoon, but could use him as a pinch-runner if they desired to, although this would be a sub-optimal use of roster space.  Another club could claim him off waivers (thereby blocking Cincinnati from trading for him) and the Blue Jays could work out a trade with them, but a trade to Cincinnati for a mid-level prospect makes the most sense for both parties.  I would be surprised and yet not overly disappointed if Rajai Davis is a Blue Jays on September 1.

BlueJaysPlus Podcast Episode 13: Zach Mortimer on Prospects and the Draft

We had a couple technical difficulties this week, as first, Ewan forgot to press record when he interviewed Eno Sarris of FanGraphs, and for some reason, part 1 of the podcast got messed up, and our voices are intertwined instead of one after another...I explain at the beginning of the episode. BUT, we still had a fantastic interview with Zach Mortimer, a scout for Baseball Prospectus, and we talked about the possibility of Casey Janssen being traded.  For now on I'm going to post an outline of the show so you can skip to parts you would like to listen to.

Stream


Download:CLICK HERE

RSS Feed:CLICK HERE

Outline
@ZachMort Interview:0:00-26:32
Casey Janssen Talk/Week Ahead/ Housekeeping:26:33-39:31

Live MLB Draft Blog!

The 2013 MLB Rule 4 draft is set to get underway in about 40 minutes, and we'll be live blogging the whole thing(OK, not the whole thing, mainly the Jays parts) for you tonight! This is our first foray into live blogging, so bear with us. We'll analyze the picks leading up to the Jays and how it effects the Blue Jays pick at #10, and then, after the Jays pick, we'll talk about that for a while, I guess.

We have a great team live blogging tonight, as Ewan, Marshall, Isaac, and myself(Gideon) will be manning this post. I'll try to embed any important tweets as well with updates on the draft.

Thanks for joining us, and keep on coming back and refreshing as new content will be coming rapidly(or at least I hope). We welcome your comments on this post as a great way to interact with us!

6:32 PM-Gideon
With half an hour left, I figured I'd get this started. Right now, it seems as if the Astros will be taking either Kohl Stewart or Colin Moran with the #1 pick. This info comes from a tweet by David Rawnsley of PerfectGameUSA(affiliated with BaseballProspectus).

Interesting, well placed source just told me that Astros are down to Stewart or Moran.Kohl would certainly be a surprise.
— David Rawnsley (@DavidRawnsleyPG) June 6, 2013

The general consensus was that the Astros would take either RHP Mark Appel or RHP Jonathan Gray with that pick, but now it seems as if they might use last year's strategy again, when they chose to skip Appel for Carlos Correa, and then be able to sign guys for over slot later. If they were to do that this year, they'd probably be looking at Sean Manea with their pick at #40.

Whoever the Astros take, it won't effect the Jays much. What will effect the Jays is what happens with pick 8-9, owned by the Royals and the Pirates respectively. This should be fun, so buckle up and enjoy the ride!

6:37-Gideon
Some non draft news. I just saw a tweet from @ShiDavidi of Sportsnet saying the Jays will purchase Andy Laroche's contract tomorrow to replace the sent down Anthony Gose. I think that was pretty expected, so not so newsworthy.

6:44-Gideon
Just a reminder, if you haven't already checked them out, Marshall and Ewan put up some great draft pieces these past couple of days. Marshall's piece can be found by clicking here, and Ewan's by click here. I'm sure they want your feedback, so leave a comment or two.

6:53-Gideon
We're less than 10 minutes away now, and I thought I'd write who I'd like the Jays to select.

LHP Trey Ball has good mechanics and a very ceiling of a #2 starter. For more about him, read the articles I linked to above. The good mechanics are key for me, as they are something other pitchers in this draft with similar ceilings don't have, and with the Jays recent injury history, I think mechanics should be a focus when acquiring players.

7:00-Gideon
So we're already to go. Don't expect the first pick to be announced for 10-15 minutes. This is going to be a long night. So, the king of twitter, Fernando Tatis, keeps us entertained with some comedy!

mlb draft tonight...but ryan braun and alex rodriguez already selected in the supplemental round yesterday
— Fernando Tatís (@FernandoTatis17) June 6, 2013

7:01-Gideon
The others will be joining in soon. But, it seems as if we know who the 1st pick will be. Keith Law informs us in the following tweet!

Hearing it's Appel to Houston.
— keithlaw (@keithlaw) June 6, 2013

7:10-Gideon
So with Appel likely going to the Astros, I assume it will be Gray to the Cubs and then Bryant to the Rockies. Stewart probably goes to the Twins, and from there, things could change. Should be exciting. Stick with us!

7:12-Gideon
It's Appel.
The Houston Astros select RHP Mark Appel out of Stanford. Cubs on the clock. Seems as it will be Gray. We shall see.

7:15-Gideon
Jim Bowden is hearing Cubs will go Gray. The tweet:

Astros take Mark Appel...Cubs on the clock and I'm hearing they're taking Jonathan Gray with the 2nd overall pick
— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) June 6, 2013

7:17-Gideon
Kris Byrant to the Cubs according to John Manuel of BA.Oh, and now confirmed by Bud Selig.
Interesting. He's powerful. He went to the University of San Diego and plays third base. Will be interesting to see if the Rockies go with Gray or take a bat.

7:20-Ewan

The Astros grab the pitcher they passed on last year, in Stanford right hander Mark Appel.  This shows that money wasn't a concern, because you'd suspect that Jonathan Gray would've signed for slightly less money.

The real lesson in this pick is Scott Boras always wins.  Gambled by letting Appel go back into the draft, and he's the big winner.

Harold Reynolds thinks that Appel could be in Houston by July.  His first comment of the night that is totally out to lunch.  Not saying that Appel doesn't have the MLB ready talent, right now, but there is zero chance a hopeless team burns through service time in order to add a win to a 65 win team. 

7:21-Isaac
The Astros did the right thing by picking Mark Appel #1 overall. There was a ton of speculation about various players, many people had them taking Gray, Moran, or Stewart. But then again, there is speculation every single year. I think the Astros knew Appel was the guy from the beginning, being the most polished, most advanced, player on the board. Another step forward for the Astros rebuild. They are doing it right.

7:24-Gideon
Rockies select RHP Jonathan Gray. I'm surprised. A bit. Doesn't really effect the Jays. Top 3 off the board after 3 picks. Makes sense.

7:25-Ewan

The Cubs surprise people to a certain degree, by passing on Jonathan Gray, to take what the rarest thing in the game these days is, which is right handed power.  3rd baseman Kris Bryant has as much power as any pick in recent memory. 

With seemingly 3rd base long term plugged by Javier Baez, and 1st base with Anthony Rizzo, I'd expect that Bryant could be ticketed for right field. 

Harold Reynolds tells us that he's seen Bryant pick it at 3rd, and he can stay there.  I question how many times he's been out to San Diego to scout Bryant's D.

7:27-Gideon
So the Twins, as expected, will pick Stewart. The tweet:

As expected, the #Twins are going to take HS RHP Kohl Stewart out of Houston area. #mlbdraft
— John Manuel (@johnmanuelba) June 6, 2013

7:28-Ewan

With Bryant off the board, the Rockies don't get cute and force a hitter in this slot.  They take Jonathan Gray, and wind up with who I thought was the best talent in the draft. 

I always thought the Rockies should've been focused on pitching to begin with, so this works just as well. 

Lack of Harold Reynolds lunacy after this pick, but I'd expect its only because they cut to commercial.

Despite the 3 picks not being in order, the top 3 are the 3 players we expected.

7:30-Gideon
Jeff Passan of Yahoo say Indians are in on Frazier. We'll see if they pick him

Hearing the Indians are on Clint Frazier, the powerful outfielder from Georgia, at No. 5.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) June 6, 2013

7:33-Ewan

The first no brainer of the night.  The Twins have one of the most stacked farm systems in the entire league, however it is still lacking pitching.  The ability to pair a stud arm like Kohl Stewart, along side their stud position players like Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano.  Together those are the trio who could lead the twinkies back to prominence. 

Mark Appel calls in, and credits God for showing him the path to go.  Pretty lofty nickname he's given to Scott Boras.

7:34-Gideon
Indians go ginger and select Frazier. #6 will likely be Shipley, per Passan.

Braden Shipley, a right-hander from Nevada, likely will go No. 6 to the Marlins. Moran dropping is only thing that might change that.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) June 6, 2013

Oh, and Frazier sings Taylor Swift, so the Jays missed big time.

7:37-Marshall
First pick of the draft(Frazier) that could have a trickle down effect, as mentioned by Ewan in his article. We'll see how it effects the Jays.

7:40-Ewan

First real shock of the night occurs at #5 as the Indians take Clint Frazier over Colin Moran, and not only blow up draft boards, but also crush my heart.  I was still holding out hope that Frazier's unconventional body and player type would fall to the Jays at 10. 

Now the question becomes where does Colin Moran fall.  He doesn't strike me as a Red Sox type pick.  Big wildcard introduced.

Harold Reynolds comps Frazier to Mike Trout, which seems really lazy.  I also learned that Frazier has grown 2 inches in the past couple weeks, and is now 6'1.

7:42-Gideon
Marlins select Moran. WOW. What a Moranic pick. Sorry, just wanted to make that pun. I lime it. Makes the picture cloudy now for the Jays. Let's what happens!

7:48-Ewan

Since Colin Moran fell into their laps, they pass on Braden Shipley to take the polished MLB ready third baseman.

I'm hoping that this means that Shipley falls into the Royals lap, since I expect they are looking for a college pitcher.  This could lead to Trey Ball falling to the Jays.  Ball is at the top of my board right now.

Luhnow in his interview basically tells Reynolds he's a moron for thinking Appel will get there by July.

Also, I appreciate whoever the host is, for throwing a jab at the Royals (and ex-hitting coach Jack Maloof) by saying they are looking to "hit a home run"

7:50-Gideon
Red Sox take Ball. I shall go cry. Meadows now top of my list.

7:53-Marshall
Hoping Shipley falls to the Jays now, him and Stanek intrigue. Along with Meadows, of course.

7:54-Ewan

Red Sox snag Trey Ball, who another of the guys I really wanted.  I'll be very disappointed if the Royals snag Meadows next, which there has been some buzz on them taking.  That would be my nightmare scenario, which could lead to someone like a JP Crawford going to the Jays.

Let's hope the Royals are looking for pitching and take one of Bickford, Meadows, or Stanek.

7:55-Gideon
Royals take Hunter Dozier. Very big surprise. Pirates now going to choose between Meadows and McGuire. Jays likely to get the one who they don't take.

8:01-Gideon
Pirates select Meadows, so now McGuire and Shipley are available. Let's hope for Shipley. 

8:01-Ewan

I just pity Royals fans.  Hunter Dozier wasn't ranked in the top 30 by anyone. 

Jesus Christ.  Reynolds loves the pick.  Compares him to Troy Tulowitzki, and says he's a lock to stay at short.  Jonathan Mayo immediately says Reynolds doesn't know anything, and he's not a shortstop.

This pick is atrocious, and is Dayton Moore's final insult to Royals fans on his way out the door. 

I don't care how little money Dozier takes, even of it gets them Bickford or Manaea.

Now that Harold Reynolds realizes its a crappy pick he's questioning it.

8:05-Gideon
I don't like this pick. I'll explain soon. No more live blogging picks. We'll be giving our thoughts on this pick, and then be back at it when the Jays draft in the 2nd round.

I'll be back with the live blog when the second round comes on. I'm writing a separate post on Bickford.

11:00-Gideon
Aaaaaaaaand I'm back! The Jays have their 2nd round pick at #47, which should be in a few minutes. Let's see what happens.

11:05-Gideon
No idea who Clinton Hollon is. 

#BlueJays take RHP Clinton Hollon. Big arm, effort to delivery. Good SL. #mlbdraft
— Nathan Rode (@NathanRode) June 7, 2013

Well that sounds good, I think. I'll look for scouting reports and post them on here. Stay tuned. 

11:15-Gideon
So Hollon throws with a 3/4 arm slot, and his mechanics are messy and, as Rode says above, he has an effort delivery. Once again, the Jays go to a guy with a high risk of injury. But, I won't rant again, I'll focus on the good. He was going to be a mid 1st round pick this draft before getting hurt, so their is some potential here. He sits 91-94 and touches 97 according to the scouting report I found, and apparently has good control. He also throws a high 70's curve and his change up features good arm speed. The money line from this scouting report though is the following. "Potential for 4 above average offerings". Very nice. If he stays healthy, this could be a nice little snag for AA and the crew.

Jays Select Phil Bickford: Mechanics Continue to Mean Nothing

You'd think after years of having seasons thrown away because of pitcher injuries the Jays Front Office would get a clue and stop acquiring pitchers with bad mechanics that lead to injuries. But, that clearly isn't the case as with the 10th overall pick in tonight's draft, the Blue Jays picked high school RHP Phil Bickford from California.  I'm getting tired of the Jays being stupid.

Bickford has the 2nd best high school in the draft according to BA, reaching 97 MPH and sitting between 92 and 94 MPH. This might be good, but a flamethrower with bad mechanics leads to injuries 99.9% of the time.

He also lacks a good breaking pitch. His slider can be a wipeout pitch some times, but most of the time it will just hang up there and get hit. Phil also throws a change up which is nothing to write home about, so yeah, very exciting player!

The best worst part about Bickford though has to be his mechanics. He throws with a 3/4 arm slot as shown in this video below, and is just an injury waiting to happen. His high ceiling is very nice, but it's hard to reach a ceiling without an arm. Given the odds that his arm falls off(not literally obviously), his ceiling seems untouchable.

But wait, there's more. He's also a tough sign. So, if he doesn't sign, the Jays get the 11th pick next year, in what is considered as an even weaker draft than this one!!! Hurray!!! This was such a smart move.

The Blue Jays have one starter in the big leagues with good mechanics(Buehrle), and he is vastly overpaid, and might be leaving town soon. In the minors, their best prospects, Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna, both have horrid mechanics. Now throw in Bickford, and the Jays have really created a recipe for success faille here. There is an old saying that goes "Pitchers win Championships". It means healthy pitchers, not the Josh Johnson and Phil Bickford's of the world!

Want to know why you should hate this pick? Law had him at 55 on his rankings.

How does one spin this is a good pick? Fail to mention the bad, obviously. Take it away, Brian Parker.

I'll leave with this. The Jays need a philosophy change. If it requires a new GM, then that's the cost that will need to be paid. But, AA can't keep on getting these guys that are destined to be hurt, and then blame everything on bad luck. It might be time to #FireAA(not mid-season, off-season).

You can follow me on twitter, @gideonturk. To connect with the site, Follow us on Twitter, and Like us on Facebook.

Toronto Blue Jays 2013: Season So Far & Future Odds Predictions

In just over a month, we’ve seen only a fraction of the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays, but it has been a brutal start to the season. The once preseason World Series favorites have yet to hit their stride and find themselves 9 games under .500 as we enter Thursday’s game.

Are these Jays still World Series contenders? Was all the media created hype justified during the offseason? These are questions still waiting to be answered, but no one could be impressed with what they have seen early on.

We’ll take a look at the Jays’ future odds for the World Series, AL Pennant and AL East Title. On top of that we’ll analyze some key parts of the season so far and if we think this team has what it takes to compete in the postseason.

Free Swinging Ways

Manager John Gibbons has used over 26 different lineups this season, not only due to injuries to Jose Reyes (podcast), Jose Bautista and others but because he can’t figure out a way to get his offense clicking.

Toronto ranks near the bottom of the AL in runs scored and in OBP. A quick look at a box score of most games shows a team of hitters below .300 and many closer to the Mendoza Line rather than the .250 mark. In all of baseball, they also rank near the bottom in batting average. The lineup certainly has pop but has struggled with strikeouts.

Given all of those imperfections, fans may have some reasons to be optimistic. Their BABIP is around .260 which is among the lowest in the majors. This SABRmetric statistic measures the percentage of balls hit into play that fall in for hits. Of course, there are other factors that have contributed to their offensive struggles but based on their team BABIP, but the Jays’ luck will begin to even out, and the hits will start falling, like they have been the past few days.

Jose Reyes’ loss after just week into the season seriously hurt the team’s run production. With a lineup full of mostly power hitters – who are prone to strike out or homer – it is critical to have a player whose specialty is getting on base.

All Star Rotation? Not so much.

The rotation coming into the season was almost as hotly discussed as the improved Jays’ lineup. After one month, it is severely under performing. R.A Dickey has not regained his magic with the knuckler yet and may be headed to DL with neck and back inflammation. Brandon Morrow, Mark Buehrle, and Ricky Romero have all struggled, while both J.A Happ and Josh Johnson are on the DL.

Surprisingly, one of the biggest weaknesses that the Jays had before entering the season has been strong. The bullpen has been solid despite already throwing over 100 innings this season, due to starters pitchers being pulled so early. However, things will need to change as the pen is being overworked and likely will not perform well under this soft of wear and tear all season.

Current Future Odds 

These odds are provided by Bovada.lv. I’m not recommending Bovada to bet with as I don’t know much about them but leading portal SBO rates them as pretty good.

Toronto Blue Jays to Win World Series 28/1

Toronto Blue Jays to Win AL Pennant 12/1

Toronto Blue Jays to Win AL East +650

As I mentioned above, the Jays came into the start of the season as 15/2 World Series favorites by the odds makers. The odds clearly have now been adjusted, reflecting their poor start to the season.

The AL East is an especially unforgiving division and a lousy April can come back to haunt a team later in the year. However, if we look at it from a betting perspective - if you believe the Jays will turn around their season – now is the time to get the best possible price on your selection.

They have undoubtedly had their share of rotten luck and most everyone would agree that at – at least on paper – they have what it takes to contend for a championship. Bettors have yet to see this team actually click and who knows how good they could be when that finally happens.  

Danny Knobler is Bad At His Job ... AGAIN

Danny Knobler Is Bad At His Job… AGAIN

So Danny Knobler is at it again.  It wasn’t even a month ago, that I wrote an article (on my personal blog), criticizing an incredibly lazy, and incorrect article that Mr. Knobler wrote analyzing the way “blogs” were handling the Houston Astros.  That article was merely a lazy writer choosing an incorrect narrative. This one is worse.

Also for the record, I’m not going link to Mr. Knobler’s article, because he doesn’t deserve the extra clicks that even a small blog like this would direct his way. However, in order to not take any of his words out of context, I will quote his entire article

Wasn't it right around this time last year that Bobby Valentine was getting booed?

I don’t think it was 4 games into the season, but regardless, how that is relevant?  I have no idea, but I’m sure Mr. Knobler will illuminate me.

It was, wasn't it? 

No, pretty sure they waited a few weeks, but whatever, you’ve already driven the point home, get to the useless premise of this article please.

And it was a reminder of everything that was already wrong in a Red Sox season that wouldn't get any better.

More Red Sox talk.  Get to the point.

So now it's a different year, and a different Red Sox manager, and John Farrell got booed Friday night for a completely different reason. And yet, the way and his team reacted to it says everything about how this Red Sox team and this Red Sox season are off to a different start.

4 games into a season.  Totally not too early to make sweeping proclamations about how “everything is different”.

Sorry, Blue Jays fans, but you can't hurt John Farrell. You can hate him all you want, you can boo him all you want, but you can't hurt him.

I think Mr. Knobler might misunderstand the point of booing.  It isn’t to “hurt” the target that you’ve directing them at, but rather (in this case) its to show him that the way he treated the fans that paid his paycheque isn’t appreciated.

You can't even get him to admit he doesn't like it."It was electric in here," Farrell said, on a night when nearly all the electricity was directed at him, more than anyone else who was involved in the 6-4 Red Sox win over the Blue Jays. "It was a great crowd. It's a great atmosphere."

First of all, this sentence is horribly constructed.  This guy gets paid to write by one of the biggest media companies in the world and this is the tripe he comes up with?  Just terrible.

It was a different atmosphere, anyway, on a night when the promotion was basically, "Let's all boo our ex-manager."

Now we get to the point that really set me off about this terrible article.  I’d like Mr. Knobler to point out any pre-game promotion that mentioned anything about booing the former manager.  It wasn’t necessary.  The fans in the southern Ontario market aren’t sheep that need to be told when to boo.  Frankly, its one of the things they do better than just about any sports town outside of eastern Pennsylvania.

It wasn’t the team (or any other Rogers conglomerate partners) who came up with the clever hashtag of #FFF.  That was done by the fans.  In fact, the only pre-game mentions of Farrell I saw on any broadcast as just to point out that the “former manager was returning”.  These fans may not have the longest memories, but they certainly can remember back to late fall, when Farrell informed people that he was leaving for his “dream job”.  They can remember the disrespect that he showed to not only his players, but the fan base as a whole.

Seriously, have you ever heard fans boo the pregame meeting at home plate? Have you heard fans boo the visiting team's pitching changes? Have you heard fans mockingly chant the visiting manager's name, over and over, inning after inning? 

No, I personally cant recall any time this has happened at a baseball game.  Though I do recall Mike Keenan returning to coach in Vancouver, and being booed out of the building. 

Also, I cant recall any time that a manager has asked to leave, merely because he wanted a job that he viewed as a “better” one.  If you can think of a precedent where that has been the case, please, I’d like to hear it.

The crowd -- and the "Let's boo" promotion attracted a near sellout -- even booed when Farrell went to check on the health of rookie shortstop Jose Iglesias (who took a Josh Johnson pitch on the right forearm and eventually had to leave the game).

1 – Yet again, there was no “Let’s boo” promotion.  The sellout was attracted by John Farrell’s mere presence back in Toronto.

2 – This is a cheap shot.  This implies that the fans were booing him coming out to attend to his poor injure player.  They weren’t.  They were going to take every opportunity to boo the man who told these fans that they were second class citizens in the baseball world. 

It was different, but then it's different for a manager to ask to leave one team to take over another team in the same division. It's different for that manager to publicly admit that he had wanted to make the switch a year earlier, and then to make comments that could be read to suggest he viewed the first city as just a steppingstone to the job he really wanted.Farrell probably would have been better off not saying some of the things he did after leaving the Blue Jays for the Red Sox last fall, and he certainly wasn't going to make the same mistake now. He had nothing but compliments for this city and its baseball fans Friday.

Really, this is about as close as Knobler comes to criticizing anything that John Farrell did this past off-season. 

Though, don’t worry, he’s going to spend the next two paragraphs praising all the wonderful changes that Farrell has brought to the “new look” Boston Red Sox. 

"I think history shows Toronto is an outstanding baseball town," Farrell said.Perhaps it will be again, although the Blue Jays' 1-3 start isn't doing much to build on the momentum the Jays generated with their big offseason. It certainly can't help that on the nights with the two biggest crowds this week, the Blue Jays lost.

Great, now that he has his “dream job” Farrell can throw ridiculous platitudes at us.  I’d much rather he done what Josh Hamilton did today and stick to his guns.  We know that John Farrell doesn’t see an “outstanding baseball town” when he looks at Toronto, and frankly it probably isn’t. 

Fans in Toronto know that it’s a hockey town first and foremost, but they don’t want someone they are paying to try and change that, waving that fact in their face. 

Perhaps it will be again, although the Blue Jays' 1-3 start isn't doing much to build on the momentum the Jays generated with their big offseason. It certainly can't help that on the nights with the two biggest crowds this week, the Blue Jays lost. 

Its four games Danny, Four.  Though, I suppose if its not to early to make sweeping proclamations about the “dramatic turnaround” in Boston, its not too early to be raising the white flag above the dome. 

That's hardly Farrell's problem now, just as it's hardly Farrell's problem that he's not the most popular guy in this town, or in the clubhouse he once ran."We'd rather have him there [in Boston] than have him here and wishing he was there," Jose Bautista said Friday afternoon. "We have a manager who wants to be here."

Hmm, so now we have a comment by star Jose Bautista about the new manager who is in the Toronto dugout.  I’m sure the next few paragraphs will be about how John Gibbons seems to have this team a lot more happy and cohesive than John Farrell ever did. 

Right?

The Red Sox have one, too. They have a manager who seems to have showed up at the right time (following the unpopular Valentine), and with the right group of players (in a clubhouse that was rebuilt with team chemistry and "Boston fit" in mind).

Farrell mentioned Friday night that people who only watch on television don't realize how much fun the Red Sox are having in their dugout.His team does seem to enjoy being together. It also seems significantly more ready to win than the team Valentine took over a year ago. Once again Friday night, the Red Sox were able to show off young talent (Iglesias made a brilliant play at short, and Jackie Bradley Jr. was on base three times) and their outstanding bullpen (four innings, one run).

Lets ignore the fact that Jackie Bradley made two poor plays in the outfield, or that Junichi Tazawa was rather dreadful out of the pen.

Nope, its all about having fun in Boston.  Who wants things like facts to get in the way.

The Red Sox were even able to turn the booing into a positive. They looked to be joking about it at times, although afterwards they would only admit that they enjoyed seeing people in the stands and hearing them make some noise."I think our players fed off it a little," Farrell said.

Projecting body language so it fits my narrative.  I thought we’d hit as many lazy journalistic tendencies, but Mr. Knobler proves that I had underestimated him.

There's no doubt things would have been different if the Red Sox were still the mess that they were under Valentine. Things may well have been different if the Blue Jays were the ones off to a fast start.Maybe then the booing would have gotten to Farrell. Maybe then he wouldn't have so easily been able to say that he enjoyed it.
And maybe then it would have stung a little when the fans taunted him about that "dream job" remark.
Right now, this does look like Farrell's dream job. Right now, it's hard to think he made any kind of mistake by leaving, or that the Red Sox made any kind of mistake by going to get him.
Right now, the booing won't hurt John Farrell.
It only helps prove how much the Red Sox have changed.

I’m tired of ripping this line by line, but I promised I’d include the entire article, so there is the rest of the tripe that Mr. Knobler closed his article with.

In an semi-related note.  On Baseball Prospectus’ Effectively Wild podcast this week, they’ve been doing a segment on “confirmation bias week”.  Meaning that this is the week of the baseball season where all the hack journalists, take what they thought were going to be the narratives coming into the season, and look for ways to make the facts on the field confirm these pre-established biases that they already have.

This is exactly what Mr. Knobler has done here.  Pre-season he assumed that because Bobby Valentine was out of the Boston clubhouse, everything would now be hunky dory, and as a result, he’s taken this largely irrelevant 4 games worth of data points to prove his point.

These 4 games essentially prove nothing, unless you want to force them into a pre-existing narrative.