Friday, November 30, 2012

Top 20 Prospects: #13 Santiago Nessy C


By: Isaac Boloten
#13 Santiago Nessy C
Born: December 8, 1992 in Caracas, Venezuela. (Age 19)
Acquired Via: International Free Agency. 750k in 2009
Bats: Right Throws: Right Height: 6’ 2’’ Weight: 230 lbs
Baseball America Ranking- Not Listed
Baseball Prospectus Ranking- TBA
FanGraphs Ranking- #10(Updated list)
MLB.com Ranking: Not Listed


2012 Stats and Analysis:
Team/Level
G
PA
H
HR
BB%
K%
BABIP
AVG
OBP
SLG
SB
Bluefield (RK)
45
178
41
8
7.3%
26.4%
.308
.256
.320
.456
0
Vancouver (A-)
6
25
2
1
12.0%
28.0%
.071
.091
.200
.273
0

Santiago Nessy was one of the most intriguing prospects in the Jays system entering 2012. He had a terrific season in the Gulf Coast League just a year ago (his second in the MILB), and everybody was looking forward to what the young Venezuelan would do in 2012. I have to say, though, this year was a letdown for me. On the defensive side of the ball, he has come a long way. With that being said, I don’t believe it’ll be his defense that gets him to the majors. He is thought to be a very offensive-minded catcher. This year, he took a leap backwards. The power numbers were fine (9 HR in 51 games), but some other things make me wonder if he’s ever going to become a big league catcher. One thing is the OBP. I mean, he played rookie ball, and his OBP was barely over .300. That’s something that if it continues, it’ll be his #1 setback. This year, of course, isn’t the ideal year to look at his stats, as 51 games isn’t a large sample size at all. He played a similar number of games in 2011, but his numbers were very different. His average was up over .300, OBP north of .350, and not nearly as many home runs (3). If he can regain those numbers, he’s once again a very promising prospect, but if he doesn’t I’m skeptical. Especially with the catching depth we already have in our organization.

Scouting Report

Although Nessy has come a long way behind the plate, he still isn’t great. His receiving is fine, and he knows how to work with pitchers, but his inability to throw runners out is alarming. I would expect that to be is number 1 priority to improve on in 2013. That, and losing some weight. Yes, a lot of catchers are over-weight, and a lot of them are successful, but many wonder if he’ll be able to stay at the catcher position, as it wears down on you, especially if you’re 6’2’’ 230 lb. Nessy’s best tool is his power. It’s very raw right now, but he could develop in to someone who can hit 20+ home runs. Nessy strikes out too much as well, which limits his ability to hit for average (sound familiar? JPA…).  The gist is, Nessy is far away. He only has one tool right now, and every other part of his game has a countless amount of flaws. I understand why he is ranked so high in our prospect rankings, but boy does he have to work hard in order to become a serviceable big leaguer.

Where will he be in 2013, and ETA? Projection?

After finishing the year in Vancouver, I would expect him to stay right there, for now. If he starts in low-A Vancouver, expect a move to either Lansing, or maybe even Dunedin later in the season. This would give him an opportunity to play some AA ball in 2014, get a taste of AAA in 2015, and be in the majors by 2016, if all goes well. With Nessy though, I can’t guarantee all will go well. Many factors could come into play. One of those factors might be being blocked by future perennial all-star Travis d’Arnaud(one can hope). Another one of those factors might be his inability to throw out base runners.Or it could be his high K-rate, or his low OBP. In other words, he’s impossible to predict, and is very raw. 2013 is a huge year for Nessy. If another year goes by and he doesn’t improve, you could see him fall off of a lot of top prospect lists.

I’m not going to lie to you, Nessy right now seems a lot like JP Arencibia.  If you’re a #13 prospect in a system, there’s nothing wrong with looking like JP. I think if Nessy develops into a similar player to Arencibia, you can call him a success, no matter how much you dislike Arencibia as a player.

 Comments and criticisms welcome below.

You can follow me on Twitter, @IsaacBlueJays.
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Thursday, November 29, 2012

Top 20 Prospects: #14 Jacob Anderson OF


#14 Jacob Anderson OF

Born: November 22, 1992 in Chino, California, US (Age 20)
Acquired via: 2011 Draft.1st round,35th overall from Chino HS
Bats: Right, Throws: Right 
Height: 6' 4", Weight: 190 lb.
Baseball America Rankings: Not Listed
Baseball Prospectus Rankings: TBA
FanGraphs Ranking: Not Listed
MLB.com Ranking: #17



2012 Stats and Analysis:
Team/Level
G
PA
H
HR
BB%
K%
BABIP
AVG
OBP
SLG
SB
Bluefield (Rk)
57
215
37
3
5.1%
33.5%
.288
.194
.271
.304
3

Anderson had a season to forget in 2012 with the Bluefield Blue Jays of the Appalachian League. Not only did he put up an “Arencibia like” OBP,(not a good thing) but he also only hit 3 home runs in just under 60 games. That might not be so bad for most players, but Anderson is supposed to possess plus power. Obviously, his 2012 season was a big concern in that department. The low batting average is no surprise as he has always had trouble hitting for average because of how bad his eye is(ridiculous K rate of 33.5% in 2012). If he doesn’t start laying off breaking balls, his career as a prospect won’t last very long. As we’ve said before, take all stats from rookie league players with a grain of salt, as statistics in the lower levels of the minors rarely mean anything, and it’s usually just the player who needs adjusting mentally, not his stuff.

Scouting Report:
As mentioned above, Anderson’s best tool is his power, which was almost non-existent in the home run variety this past season. Making up for the lack of home runs, Anderson did show some good gap power, hitting 17 extra base hits in only 191,2012 at bats. He has a quick swing, but his eye needs a ton of work. That should hopefully come easy for Jacob, as he is known as a player who learns the various aspects of the game very quickly. Anderson has played right and left field since being drafted (played 1st in college as well), but it seems like down the road, he will end up in left field due to his offensive capabilities and average arm. He gets good reads on balls, so all in all his defense is about average.  Anderson also harness’ plus speed, but he has yet to put that on display on the base paths, stealing only 5 bases in his 66 career games. Overall, Jacob Anderson is a toolsy player who will climb the ranks of the minor leagues very quickly if he combines his nice swing with a decent eye that doesn’t strike out a third of his plate appearances.

2013? Projection? ETA?
Barring any changes, I believe Anderson will start the year at extended spring training, and, if he succeeds, move up to Lansing for the final month or two of the 2013 season. When he was drafted, Anderson projected to be like Grady Sizemore. I see no reason why this should have changed. He hasn’t even gotten 250 plate appearances in the MILB, and probably just need’s some getting used to. I see his floor as a 4th outfielder who will give you some decent defense and speed, and provide you with a good power bat off the bench. If all goes right for Anderson, he could be up in the majors by 2016. But, I wouldn’t bet on him being up in Toronto until early 2017 because he has had such a slow start in the rookie league.

Comments and criticisms welcome below!

You can follow me on twitter, @gideonturk. To connect with the site, Follow us on Twitter, and Like us on Facebook.

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Top 20 Prospects: #15 Chris Hawkins OF


#15 Chris Hawkins OF

Born: August 17th, 1991 in Sugar Hill, Georgia, US.(Age 21)
Acquired via: 2010 Draft. 3rd round pick from North Gwinnett HS
Bats: Left, Throws: Right 
Height: 6' 2", Weight: 195 lb.
Baseball America Rankings: Not Listed
Baseball Prospectus Ranking: TBA
FanGraphs Ranking: Not Listed
MLB.com Ranking: #10




2012 Stats and Analysis:
Team/Level
G
PA
H
HR
BB%
K%
BABIP
AVG
OBP
SLG
SB
Lansing (A)
123
541
133
2
8.5%
14.4%
.318
.271
.333
.334
11

After being drafted in 2010 and playing close to 50 mediocre games in the GCL that year, Chris Hawkins played all of 2011 in Bluefield for the Blue Jays, and put up some amazing numbers. He hit .318, had a wRC+ of 131, stole 14 bases, and rose up the prospect ranks.  2012 saw him go back to his mediocre 2010 numbers, and with it, he was back in the 15-30 range of Jays prospects. Many people were fooled by his 2011 season, but, they shouldn’t have been, as he had a BABIP of .373, so it was quite obvious that he was going to fall back down to earth this past season. His walk rate remained the same(0.2 difference), and his k% dropped 3%, so it was quite obvious that he was just not getting the same luck that he got in 2011, in 2012.


Scouting Report:
Hawkins was drafted in the 3rd round back in 2012 for a reason.  He possesses above average speed, and has the ability to hit for extra bases. To compliment his speed, his so-called “Baseball IQ” is very good, as shown when he stole 11 bases in 2012, but wasn’t caught once. As he develops, that smartness on the base paths will really help him move up levels.  He has switched positions a couple of times, but is now playing left field quite nicely. His above average arm, coupled with his speed and good instincts, allow him to be a plus outfielder. His hit tool can obviously use some help, but it should only get better as his eye (k% and BB%) is slightly above the norm, and over the next few seasons, it should get a lot better. As mentioned earlier, he has some extra base power, but his line drive swing is good for just that, not so much power.

2013? Projection? ETA?
Hawkins will, barring any injuries, start the 2013 season in A+ Dunedin. And, if you thought Hawkins will have a great year like he did in 2011, in 2013, you are probably wrong, as he is going to be playing in the pitcher friendly Florida State League.  Hawkins’ best-case scenario is a top of the lineup hitter who will play above average defense in left field, for a second division team. Realistically, he likely won’t be anything greater than a great bat to have come off the bench as a pinch hitter, and a player than you can use as a pinch runner/ate in the game defensive replacement. If everything goes as planned for Hawkins, middle 2015 to middle 2016 is when he can be up roaming the outfields of Rogers Centre. Whether it will be as a starter, or as a bench player, is all up to him…

Comments/Criticisms are welcome below.

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