Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Top 20 Prospects: #15 Chris Hawkins OF

#15 Chris Hawkins OF

Born: August 17th, 1991 in Sugar Hill, Georgia, US.(Age 21)
Acquired via: 2010 Draft. 3rd round pick from North Gwinnett HS
Bats: Left, Throws: Right 
Height: 6' 2", Weight: 195 lb.
Baseball America Rankings: Not Listed
Baseball Prospectus Ranking: TBA
FanGraphs Ranking: Not Listed
MLB.com Ranking: #10

2012 Stats and Analysis:
Lansing (A)

After being drafted in 2010 and playing close to 50 mediocre games in the GCL that year, Chris Hawkins played all of 2011 in Bluefield for the Blue Jays, and put up some amazing numbers. He hit .318, had a wRC+ of 131, stole 14 bases, and rose up the prospect ranks.  2012 saw him go back to his mediocre 2010 numbers, and with it, he was back in the 15-30 range of Jays prospects. Many people were fooled by his 2011 season, but, they shouldn’t have been, as he had a BABIP of .373, so it was quite obvious that he was going to fall back down to earth this past season. His walk rate remained the same(0.2 difference), and his k% dropped 3%, so it was quite obvious that he was just not getting the same luck that he got in 2011, in 2012.

Scouting Report:
Hawkins was drafted in the 3rd round back in 2012 for a reason.  He possesses above average speed, and has the ability to hit for extra bases. To compliment his speed, his so-called “Baseball IQ” is very good, as shown when he stole 11 bases in 2012, but wasn’t caught once. As he develops, that smartness on the base paths will really help him move up levels.  He has switched positions a couple of times, but is now playing left field quite nicely. His above average arm, coupled with his speed and good instincts, allow him to be a plus outfielder. His hit tool can obviously use some help, but it should only get better as his eye (k% and BB%) is slightly above the norm, and over the next few seasons, it should get a lot better. As mentioned earlier, he has some extra base power, but his line drive swing is good for just that, not so much power.

2013? Projection? ETA?
Hawkins will, barring any injuries, start the 2013 season in A+ Dunedin. And, if you thought Hawkins will have a great year like he did in 2011, in 2013, you are probably wrong, as he is going to be playing in the pitcher friendly Florida State League.  Hawkins’ best-case scenario is a top of the lineup hitter who will play above average defense in left field, for a second division team. Realistically, he likely won’t be anything greater than a great bat to have come off the bench as a pinch hitter, and a player than you can use as a pinch runner/ate in the game defensive replacement. If everything goes as planned for Hawkins, middle 2015 to middle 2016 is when he can be up roaming the outfields of Rogers Centre. Whether it will be as a starter, or as a bench player, is all up to him…

Comments/Criticisms are welcome below.

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1 comment:

  1. Chris Hawkins reminds me of a quicker, less pop Travis Snider.