Friday, November 30, 2012

Top 20 Prospects: #13 Santiago Nessy C

By: Isaac Boloten
#13 Santiago Nessy C
Born: December 8, 1992 in Caracas, Venezuela. (Age 19)
Acquired Via: International Free Agency. 750k in 2009
Bats: Right Throws: Right Height: 6’ 2’’ Weight: 230 lbs
Baseball America Ranking- Not Listed
Baseball Prospectus Ranking- TBA
FanGraphs Ranking- #10(Updated list) Ranking: Not Listed

2012 Stats and Analysis:
Bluefield (RK)
Vancouver (A-)

Santiago Nessy was one of the most intriguing prospects in the Jays system entering 2012. He had a terrific season in the Gulf Coast League just a year ago (his second in the MILB), and everybody was looking forward to what the young Venezuelan would do in 2012. I have to say, though, this year was a letdown for me. On the defensive side of the ball, he has come a long way. With that being said, I don’t believe it’ll be his defense that gets him to the majors. He is thought to be a very offensive-minded catcher. This year, he took a leap backwards. The power numbers were fine (9 HR in 51 games), but some other things make me wonder if he’s ever going to become a big league catcher. One thing is the OBP. I mean, he played rookie ball, and his OBP was barely over .300. That’s something that if it continues, it’ll be his #1 setback. This year, of course, isn’t the ideal year to look at his stats, as 51 games isn’t a large sample size at all. He played a similar number of games in 2011, but his numbers were very different. His average was up over .300, OBP north of .350, and not nearly as many home runs (3). If he can regain those numbers, he’s once again a very promising prospect, but if he doesn’t I’m skeptical. Especially with the catching depth we already have in our organization.

Scouting Report

Although Nessy has come a long way behind the plate, he still isn’t great. His receiving is fine, and he knows how to work with pitchers, but his inability to throw runners out is alarming. I would expect that to be is number 1 priority to improve on in 2013. That, and losing some weight. Yes, a lot of catchers are over-weight, and a lot of them are successful, but many wonder if he’ll be able to stay at the catcher position, as it wears down on you, especially if you’re 6’2’’ 230 lb. Nessy’s best tool is his power. It’s very raw right now, but he could develop in to someone who can hit 20+ home runs. Nessy strikes out too much as well, which limits his ability to hit for average (sound familiar? JPA…).  The gist is, Nessy is far away. He only has one tool right now, and every other part of his game has a countless amount of flaws. I understand why he is ranked so high in our prospect rankings, but boy does he have to work hard in order to become a serviceable big leaguer.

Where will he be in 2013, and ETA? Projection?

After finishing the year in Vancouver, I would expect him to stay right there, for now. If he starts in low-A Vancouver, expect a move to either Lansing, or maybe even Dunedin later in the season. This would give him an opportunity to play some AA ball in 2014, get a taste of AAA in 2015, and be in the majors by 2016, if all goes well. With Nessy though, I can’t guarantee all will go well. Many factors could come into play. One of those factors might be being blocked by future perennial all-star Travis d’Arnaud(one can hope). Another one of those factors might be his inability to throw out base runners.Or it could be his high K-rate, or his low OBP. In other words, he’s impossible to predict, and is very raw. 2013 is a huge year for Nessy. If another year goes by and he doesn’t improve, you could see him fall off of a lot of top prospect lists.

I’m not going to lie to you, Nessy right now seems a lot like JP Arencibia.  If you’re a #13 prospect in a system, there’s nothing wrong with looking like JP. I think if Nessy develops into a similar player to Arencibia, you can call him a success, no matter how much you dislike Arencibia as a player.

 Comments and criticisms welcome below.

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