Friday, October 12, 2012

Starting Pitching Possibilities

As many of you know, the Blue Jays starting pitching this year was for the most part, a disaster. Things were looking really promising early on. All was well until the Washington Nationals strolled into town. What happened that week was absolutely unthinkable. First, our true ace, Brandon Morrow went down with an oblique injury, which would sideline him until late August. You could say that he was gone for the rest of the season, as when he returned, the Blue Jays were well out of contention. It was 2 days later when the centrepiece from the Roy Halladay trade, Kyle Drabek suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament, otherwise known, as the "Tommy John ligament." It was immediately decided that he is going to be missing in action until at least June of 2013. Then, 2 days later, Drew Hutchison, a player who showed much promise, went down with a sprained UCL of his own! We probably won't see Hutchison until 2014, as it was a late decision to resort to Tommy John. In those 5 days, the Blue Jays season went down the toilet. There is no recovering from losing 3 of your 5 starting pitchers, especially when all 3 of them were having pretty good seasons.



"Ace" Ricky Romero had one of the worst seasons in the MLB of the last decade, and there's no way to explain that. We need help on the mound, and we need it fast. AA has said recently that he is looking to add 1 or 2 starting pitchers, which is about the most specific AA will ever get. 1 starting pitcher is not good enough. A contender doesn't have a rotation of 1. Morrow 2. Blank 3. Romero 4. Alvarez 5. Happ, and I can prove that, using the combined WAR of a playoff team's rotation, vs. the combined WAR of the Blue Jays rotation this year, plus the WAR of (for example) James Shields. Take the Yankees, for example. Their starting pitching isn't known to be superior to other playoff teams', yet their combined WAR this year was 12.2. If James Shields was on the Blue Jays this year, the combined WAR of their starting pitchers would be 5.5! Not even half of the Yankees! And you're lucky I counted Aaron Laffey, and J.A. Happ! I know that things could change, but with just one addition, it's absurd (even with improvements from this year, as we should expect) to think that we will become a legitimate playoff contender. It won't come close to 12.2. I will be discussing what our possibilities are, when it comes to adding 2 solid starting pitchers.



Some people say that bringing back Carlos Villanueva as a starter would be a good idea, as he had some success this year. I don't like this idea, and here's why: Villanueva has indicated that he doesn't like the way that AA has talked about him, saying “I don't really love the advertisement being put out there. GMs are influential and somebody else might listen to them and think, ‘Hey, maybe they know something we don’t know." 



I like Villanueva in the bullpen, but the rotation isn't the right fit. He hasn't pitched in more than 125 innings in the big leagues, which is something that you should expect out of a starting pitcher. Although he has never had the opportunity to pitch 200 innings, indications like struggling in the second half the last 2 years would suggest that he's not capable. Villanueva should not start next year, end of story. 



Mike Wilner, of whom I cannot view his tweets, has suggested interest in Alexi Ogando, being our number 2 starting pitcher. I must say, the amount of stupidity in that statement is absolutely unbearable. Alexi Ogando is a great relief pitcher. He started in 2011, and in the first half, he was an All-Star, he was great, an ace, some may say. Then, as soon as the second half hit, his arm got tired. Ogando wasn't the same pitcher at all, and it even forced a move to the bullpen. The Rangers, and their very smart management, took this into account, and labeled him as a relief pitcher, as his arm cannot support him for a full season. Ogando has been great since then, with less of a work load. If the Rangers thought he was a starter, they would have started him well ahead of Roy Oswalt and Martin Perez this season. Not only that, but the Rangers would probably ask for one of the Lansing 3, along with a top tier offensive prospect. On top of all this, Ogando is injury prone! Way too much for a project that will inevitably fail. If Ogando is a Blue Jay next season, he better be pitching in relief. 

James punches out more than just batters!



Now, on to the 2 pitchers that I'd like to see in the rotation next year. 



One of them is James Shields. James Shields is lights out. He strikes out guys when he needs to, but is also very efficient with his pitches. This year started out badly for Shields, but he has gotten on the right track, as he finished the year with a WHIP of 1.17, and a K/9 of 8.8, helped out by his final start of the year, where he pitched a 15 strikeout masterpiece. We do not yet know whether the Rays will exercise Shields' 12 million dollar option, but I would highly doubt it. Shields will demand a lot of money, but with AA's comments about raising payroll "significantly," I think he's prepared. Something along the lines of 4 Years, $80 000 000 would be within reason. 


The other player I would like to see the Jays sign through free agency is Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez has shined in Detroit, prior to the playoffs, I really like what I have seen from him. He has pitched over 190 innings in the last 3 years, which would be a huge breath of fresh air for Jays fans, with all of the injuries. He strikes out batters, but isn't overpowering. He has great stuff. His fastball averages about 91-92 MPH, but has a pretty wide range of velocity. He will often drop into the 87-88 range, but also regularly dials it up to 95 MPH.   Sanchez mostly works with a four-seam fastball, but mixes in a two-seamer with decent tailing movement as well. His main secondary pitch is an 83-86 MPH slider that has been pretty effective the past couple years. Sanchez has an above average 83-86 MPH changeup, a pitch that has very nice of sink.  He also mixes in a slow curve on occasion, yet it's not his strongest pitch.


Although these signings will help, they will not put our rotation over the hump. What will make our rotation look like one you would see in the playoffs, would be the re-arrival of Ricky Romero. Ricky being Ricky again would put 4 top tier starting pitchers in the same rotation. It would be a spectacle to watch.


To finish, here is what I think the starting rotation should look like for the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays: 


3. Ricky Romero
4. Anibal Sanchez
5. J.A. Happ 
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Wednesday, October 10, 2012

BBA: End of Season Awards Ballot

Last off-season BJP became a member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance. At the end of each member blog votes on 5 awards. They are the Manager of the Year award,Rookie of the Year,Reliever of the Year,Cy Young, and MVP. We get votes for the A.L awards only because we are Blue Jays blog. This will be my official ballot. 


Connie Mack Award (Manager of the Year)
1. Bob Melvin
2. Buck Showalter
3. Joe Maddon

Melvin was my choice here because he was able to make a winner out of a team that had no business finishing with 75+ wins. They won 94 games, the AL West, and they finished they year with a starting rotation entirely comprised of rookies. It takes one heck of a manager to be able to get a team that is filled with question marks on opening day into the postseason, even though they went through so much. Brett Anderson, their best pitcher was injured until late in the season, and their 2nd best pitcher, Brandon McCarthy almost died while playing in September. Oh, did I mention they traded their 3 best players in the off-season last year, and let their best hitter walk in free agency? Ya, Melvin did a pretty good job this season. The Orioles aren't actually good, their bullpen is good, that's why Showalter doesn't win this one.

Willie Mays Award (Rookie of the Year)
2. Mike Trout
3. Mike Trout

Do I really need to explain my vote? I didn't think so. I'll sum it up anyways. 175 wRC+. 10.7 B-R WAR. 5.32 WPA. Really fast. Really good at hitting. Really good at defense. Really good at everything! Trout wins by a landslide over any other rookie.

Goose Gossage Award (Top Reliever)
1. Fernando Rodney
2. Greg Holland
3. Ernesto Frieri

Another award that is pretty crystal clear. Rodney had an ERA of 0.60, the lowest ever for a qualifying reliever, and only gave up 5 earned runs all season long in 74.2 IP. He was lights outs this year for the Rays, and I know that every time the Jays played the Rays, I was not looking forward to the 9th inning. Although I hate Rodney and his curved hat, I need to give him the award, he just had such a dominating season. Holland was awesome for the Royals in 2012, posting a K/9 of 12.22, and a WAR of 2.2, good enough for 2nd in the league behind the arrow shooter. Frieri led the league in K/9 at 13.25 in 54.1 IP and produced a 2.32 ERA to help his cause.

Walter Johnson Award (Cy Young)
1. Justin Verlander
2. Felix Hernandez
3. David Price

This was the hardest award for me to vote on without a doubt. Verlander and King Felix had incredible seasons, but, once again, Justin comes out on top. Price had a similar season to those 2, but pitched around 20 less innings, eliminating him from contention for the first 2 places. Here is a link to a custom leader board on FanGraphs so you can decide who you would have voted for best A.L Pitcher. 

Stan Musial Award
1. Mike Trout
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Robinson Cano

There is nothing I can write here that you haven't read yet, so I'll try to keep it simple. Average isn't a true judge of a player's offensive capabilities. RBI's are as good as a stat as pitcher wins. They are completely team based, and should not influence anybody in their voting. The real triple crown was won by Mike Trout. He led the league in wOBA,wRC+, and WAR. Much better than the triple crown of old. If this award was the best hitter award, than I could see voting for Miggy, but it isn't. This is an all around award, and Trout provides that. He is superb offensively, he robs people in the outfield, and his base running is a pleasure to watch. His 10+ WAR isn't only provided by his offence, it's provided by his all around awesomeness. 

These are the days that the winners will be announced for the awards. I assume they will be announced on the BBA website/twitter feed, but I don't know because I've never done this before.


October 15: Connie Mack Award (manager of the year)
October 16: Willie Mays Award (rookie of the year)
October 17: Goose Gossage Award (top reliever)
October 18: Walter Johnson Award (Cy Young)
October 19: Stan Musial Award (MVP)

Agree or disagree with my picks? Comment below!

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Saturday, October 6, 2012

Who’s Out in Left?

It’s not quite that time of year yet, but what else do Bluejays fans have to look forward too? The draft isn’t in the off-season like most associations, and spring training is a long ways away. Not to mention how much of a wash this year has been.
            So who is going to be the guy who suites up to play left field for the Bluejays next year? This is where we find the question within the question; what is Alex Anthopoulos (AA) looking for?
            Does Alex want to give Anthony Gose the shot to make the opening day roster? Or does Buffalo sound more intriguing? Anyone who knows baseball is going to tell you that right now, Anthony Gose cannot consistently hit big league pitching. So could another year in AAA,in a more realistic scenario in Buffalo instead of Las Vegas harm Anthony at all? It’s not like Anthony has absolutely destroyed AAA pitching and has nothing left to prove, because he hasn’t. So I say no.
            Is AA intrigued with the relatively thin outfield free agent market? Yes, thin I said it. That doesn’t mean I’m discrediting Josh Hamilton (like you could even try), BJ Upton, or Nick Swisher, it means that, in all reality, none of them are coming to Toronto. So who’s logically left? Torii Hunter, and Delmon Young, that’s who. Unless, of course, you’re thinking AA is a gambling man and is willing to take a risk on Melky Cabrera (PED use) or Grady Sizemore (Injury prone).
            The trade market, this is where an abundance of possibilities arise, and with that comes major speculation. So prepare yourself for speculation, and its two major components: Who fits, and who’s available? And here’s the guy who always seems to be that “perfect fit,” Justin Upton. Is he said to be available? Yes, and with the new speculation that Texas isn’t interested in trading Andrus this winter, it makes Toronto look like the perfect fit. Now, this name arose in Ken Rosenthal’s piece the other day, Josh Willingham. And my question to the Twins is: Why would you want to keep him? His trade value should be immensely high this winter and the package they can get back for him will really help their rebuild with some young BlueJays prospects. And here’s the beyond crazy speculation you were waiting for. What about Carlos Gonzalez? Are the Rockies going to do a full rebuild? Could Cargo and Tulo, or one, be shipped out for major prospect return? I just don’t know, but that’s the exciting part. 

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Friday, October 5, 2012

The Mystery at Second Base

At this point, we can all agree that the Kelly Johnson project in Toronto has been a failure, and that his time playing for the Blue Jays is over, at least I hope you think that way.

Kelly is approaching the franchise record for single season strikeouts(at the time of this writing). He plays defense rather half-heartedly. His demeanor is almost as if he doesn’t want to be playing professional baseball. He plays with little passion, and passion is something that this era of the Blue Jays is built around. (Not everyone is Brett Lawrie, but you guys get the point.) Now, enough ranting about how bad Kelly Johnson has been with the Jays, I think we have all heard it enough, I’m here to crack the case at second base.

There are a few options at 2nd next year for the Blue Jays, but none of them involve a superstar. There isn’t too much elite talent out there this year, but I do think I have the best solution for this problem right now.

The most talked about option is to start Adeiny Hechavarria next year. I, for one do not want this to happen. Adeiny Hechavarria is a plus plus defender. There’s no doubt about that, but he needs one more year in Buffalo, his bat isn’t very productive right now, regardless of how much Buck and Pat Tabler praise how much progress he has made. I am not expecting him to ever be a star with the bat, but I don’t think he’s ready for Major League pitching. His average was inflated in AAA this year, playing in the PCL, and I think a year in Buffalo will be very telling.

Another thing about Hechavarria is, that although us fans love him, he is not as loved by scouts. They believe his bat is a huge liability, and he can only start in a very good lineup, which fortunately, we have. Hech wasn’t even on the Baseball America Blue Jays top 10 prospects list, which tells you a lot, considering that in the same feature, they ranked him the best defensive infielder in the system. When SBNation’s “Minor League Ball” ranked the Jays prospects before the season, Hechavarria was ranked 17th, behind the likes of Matt Dean, Joseph Musgrove, Dwight Smith Jr, and Jacob Anderson, the praise isn’t too high. So, Hechavarria at second base next year is a big no from me.

Some fans seem to like Marco Scutaro, and I like him as well, but with the way he is playing right now, his price will go through the roof. I think we have to realize that it is Marco Scutaro we are talking about. The guy will never be the answer at a specific position for a full year, in my humble opinion. So, is Scutaro the answer? Nope.

There are some 2nd basemen that are free agents this year, like Mike Fontenot, Jeff Keppinger, and Jose Lopez, but they are all subpar players at best, and deserve nothing more than a bench role.

Now we get to Mr. 2013 Blue Jays Second baseman. He hasn’t shown up in the stat sheet too often this year, but that’s only because he hasn’t played an inning this season, his name is Freddy Sanchez. Freddy is our savior! Freddy Sanchez is a career .297 hitter, with a career .335 OBP. That would be significantly better than Kelly Johnson. Sanchez’s career OPS is .748, which, for a second baseman is stellar. He plays very solid defense, and plays with some real passion. He would bring that “veteran leadership,” to the clubhouse, along with some World Series experience. He is also very consistent, which would be a breath of fresh air, after a year of Kelly Johnson. Sanchez can also bridge the gap for the real arrival of Adeiny Hechavarria. Coming off a season in which he didn’t play, he should be relatively cheap. Oh yeah, and he has won a batting title and is a 3 time All Star.

So, AA, now it’s your job. Sign Freddy Sanchez to a 1-year deal. You will not regret it.

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2012 Postseason Preview

With the addition of two extra playoff teams,

October  Baseball looks to be even better than before
I can’t believe that the 2012 Major League Baseball Season has come to an end. It wasn’t a dream season for the Blue Jays, as they were plagued by many important injuries. There were high hopes for the Blue Jays back in June, but it pretty much went downhill from there. Injuries to Jose Bautista, Brett Lawrie, and J.P. Arencibia insured that 2012 wasn’t our year.


Now, for 1 month, we are not Blue Jays fans, we are baseball fans, and we will watch the 2012 playoffs. It’s truly the greatest time of the year, as we get to watch the 10 best teams in baseball, battle it out to determine the World Series Champion.
I must say, the 2012 MLB was one of the most exciting seasons that I’ve ever experienced. This year brought us 7 no hitters, including 3 perfect games, pitched by Philip Humber, Matt Cain, and King Felix Hernandez. We may have experienced the best rookie season of all time, performed by Mike Trout. Perhaps the most amazing thing we saw this season was witnessing Miguel Cabrera win the Triple Crown, a feat that hadn’t been achieved in over 45 years!
If the regular season was any indication, we’re in store for quite an exciting postseason. I’m here to preview it for you. I will give you guys an in depth look at each team, and series, along with some predictions.
American League
 Wild Card Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers
Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, Friday, 8:30 PM. Yu Darvish vs. Joe Saunders.
We’re in for a fun one here. These two teams could have very easily been division winners. Instead, they play one game, to decide who will advance to the playoffs. It’s actually hard to believe that one of these teams will be eliminated this Friday. On paper, the Rangers win this one. They probably have the best lineup in the major leagues, in terms of offence. 7 of their 9 hitters are true game changing players. (Kinsler, Andrus, Hamilton, Beltre, Cruz, Young, and Napoli) If the Rangers won the division, and finished strong, they were the World Series favourites, in my opinion. Now, it’s not so easy, as they have to get through the wild card, just to face the red hot New York Yankees.
As for the Orioles, they are the luckiest team in all of baseball. They have the best record in one run games in the Major Leagues. If you were to look at their team on paper, you would probably think that they are still the OriLOLes. Yet, this team, under Buck Showalter, have a knack for winning important ball games this year. Adam Jones leads the way for this team, with a career year this year. They have a big power threat in Mark Reynolds and the red hot Chris Davis. Matt Wieters is a very solid catcher defensively and offensively. Surprisingly, Nate Mclouth has done very well in the leadoff spot filling in for Nick Markakis. Their bullpen has been their real strength this year, as Jim Johnson led the AL in saves, with Pedro Strop doing a stellar job in the set up role. I think that the problem for the Orioles (if they win the wild card game) will be starting pitching. I don’t think I trust them in a playoff series with that rotation, featuring Wei Yin-Chen, Jason Hammel, Chris Tillman, and Miguel Gonzalez, especially when their offence isn’t too potent.

Prediction: Rangers: 7 Orioles 6
I really think that Darvish will struggle early, it’s just a gut feeling. I think that Ron Washington will pull him early and give way to his bullpen. After Darvish struggles, twitter will go crazy, as O’s bandwagon fans everywhere will be overjoyed. Meanwhile, the Rangers will chip away at the O’s lead, and eventually will tie the game. I think this game will go into extra innings, ending in an Adrian Beltre walk-off home run. The Rangers will move on to face the Yankees.
Baltimore Orioles or Texas Rangers Vs New York Yankees ALDS. Starts Sunday Oct 7.
If the Rangers move on: The whole baseball world will be watching this one. These are 2 of the most popular teams in the majors facing off. This is very possibly a battle of the 2 best offences in the big leagues. The Yankees come into this series red hot, where as (even though they won the WC game) the Rangers are riding a cold streak.
 I don’t think I have to explain to you what the Yankees are all about. Their core has essentially been the same for many years, a core that includes Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Robinson Cano, CC Sabathia, and Curtis Granderson. You can hate them all you want, but they are still one of the best teams in the majors.
Prediction: Yankees win in 4 games
I think that this series will come down to how CC Sabathia fares after recent struggles. If he can win both of his games, I think that the Yankees Offense will power them to win one more. I think Jeter will be hitting .400 after this series concludes. (I have a man-crush on Derek Jeter).
If the Orioles move on:
If this occurs, this will be a series that most baseball fans will be really interested in, as “Cinderella Story O’s vs Big Bad Yankees,” headlines will be all over the internet. I think that it would be a very disappointing series, and the Yankees will run right over the O’s. I think the O’s will have trouble winning 1 game, as the Yankees lineup and rotation will show their true strength.
Prediction: Yankees win in 3 games
I think in this one, even if CC isn’t in his rhythm, the Yanks offence will score enough to take the pressure off. The Orioles won’t even put up a fight. Their rotation will show its true colours, and the offence certainly won’t put up as many runs as the Bronx Bombers.
Oakland Athletics Vs Detroit Tigers. ALDS. Starts Saturday Oct 6.
Oakland really appears to be a team on a mission. I like them this postseason, they’ve been playing some great baseball, and are very, very fun to watch. Billy Beane is a genius, and there’s no other way to put it. He traded away his stud closer, Andrew Bailey, for a guy who really had no success as a big leaguer, Josh Reddick. Bailey was injured for the majority of this season. Reddick, on the other hand, smacked 32 Home Runs and drove in 85 runs, to go along with a cannon for an arm in right field, in an amazing breakout season. Beane also traded away Gio Gonzalez in a huge deal, which already has resulted in a mid-rotation starter and their starting catcher, and there are more prospects from that deal in their system. Another A’s acquisition was Jarrod Parker, who Beane traded away for Trevor Cahill, Parker is now a high end starter, and might already be better than Cahill. Lastly, I think the move that put the A’s over the top, was the signing of Manny Ramirez… Nah I’m just kidding. It was the signing of Yoenis Cespedes, the Cuban star. Cespedes has impressed in every facet of his game. This was a signing in which people believed that it really wasn’t the right fit. A power hitter in a pitchers ballpark didn’t seem like such a genius signing. These people were horribly wrong. The A’s are a team to watch this year.
The Detroit Tigers are just so good. Their record this year didn’t really represent how good of a team they are. Their lineup is scary, which includes Mr. Triple Crown himself, Miguel Cabrera, and then just when you think you have dodged a bullet and gotten Miggy out, you have to face the mighty Prince Fielder. It’s a very deep lineup to go along with the 2 in the middle. Austin Jackson is a very good (not great) leadoff man. I loved the Infante trade, as he is a very serviceable second baseman, which is something they certainly hadn’t had before. Delmon Young, although I hate the anti-Semite, is a very nice option behind Miggy and Prince. Quentin Berry is a very exciting player, he should be a sparkplug for their offence, and Alex Avila is Mr. Solid.
I’ve written this much about the Tigers and I haven’t even gotten to their pitching, that’s how good they are. Where do I start with this pitching staff? Well, the best pitcher in baseball seems like a good place to begin. Justin Verlander has gotten better as the year has gone on. His abilities are untouched by any pitcher in the game. He can dial it up to 100 MPH any time needed, and goes deep into the game every time Leyland throws him out there. Trailing Verlander in both the rotation and the AL strikeout race is Max Scherzer. Scherzer is lights out, it looks like after years of inconsistency, he has finally figured it out. Doug Fister has done very well for the Tigers this year, and had great success in the playoffs last year, if that’s any indication. Lastly, the newly acquired Anibal Sanchez will be pitching in the playoffs for the first time. The future Blue Jay has pitched really well these last few weeks, but pitching in the playoffs is a different animal. We’ll just have to wait and see how he fares.
Prediction: Tigers win in 5 games.
But I don’t want either of them to be eliminated! This will go down as one of the greatest division series’ ever, in my opinion. Every game will be closely contested. Both teams will play their best baseball. I just think that the Tigers’ best baseball is slightly better than the A’s. I’m very excited for this one to start.
New York Yankees Vs Detroit Tigers, ALCS. Starts Saturday, Oct 13.
The Yankees are a great baseball team, with their hitting and the back end of the bullpen being their true strengths. I have learned to respect the Yankees over the years, because as a team, they play baseball the right way. Their organization represents class and history. I’m just not sure that they can beat the Tigers.
I predicted the Yankees to get past the Rangers, but the Rangers at this point, aren’t quite the Tigers. If you put into a calculator, “Rays pitching + Rangers hitting,” your answer would be the Tigers. I’m not sure the Yankees can compete with that.
Prediction: Tigers win in 6 games.
The Detroit Tigers are my pick to win the American League Pennant. This series will be a good one, but Verlander will be the difference, defeating CC in both of their matchups. The Tigers are the most complete team in the American League, they have everything.
National League 
Wild Card Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves.
Turner Field. Friday, 5:00 PM Kyle Lohse Vs. Kris Medlen.
The first thing I would like to say, is that if this game goes into the 9th inning, and the Braves are winning, the Braves win. Craig Kimbrel is a specimen that can’t be explained. His numbers as a closer are unlike we’ve ever seen before. He has struck out 49% of batters that he’s faced! Now that that’s settled, let’s go into what the Braves are all about. Michael Bourn has really struggled in the 2nd half, but if he gets on base, he’s a game-changing player. I can see Andrleton Simmons really affecting this game, just a gut feeling of mine. One thing about Atlanta’s offence is that it’s very deep, no real holes, especially if Dan Uggla is hot. Of course there is Chipper Jones, and Brian McCann, 2 players who have been stars in Atlanta for a long, long time.
I really respect all that St. Louis has done this season. They were expected to be much worse this year, after winning the World Series last year, mainly because of the departure of Albert Pujols. I give a lot of credit to Yadier Molina and Carlos Beltran, as they not only helped ease the pain of losing Pujols, them combined amounted to more value than Pujols, here’s why: Pujols’ WAR (wins above replacement) last year was 5.1. Yadier Molina’s WAR this year was 6.7. Beltran’s was 3.6. Since Pujols had Molina playing on his team last year, we must subtract Yadier’s WAR of last year from his WAR of this year. (6.7 – 2.6= 4.1) Now, we add Beltran’s WAR to Yadier’s WAR (4.1+3.6=7.7) Beltran’s WAR combined with Yadier’s modified WAR is greater than Pujols’ 2011 WAR of 5.1, and it’s not really close. I’m not saying that WAR means everything, but it’s certainly an interesting way of looking at things.
The Cardinals apart from Beltran and the emergence of Molina are basically the same team that they were last year, and they won the World Series. So who says they can’t do it again?
Prediction: Braves 4, Cardinals 0.
I do, I say they can’t do it again. Mainly because they are running into Kris Medlen. Medlen has been the best pitcher in the 2nd half. I’m not quite sure how he does it, but he is shutting down offences like no one else. It’s a shame for the Cardinals that they have to run into Medlen in a one game playoff, but things like this will go on for years and years with this wild card system MLB has in place. As for the game, I think it’ll be quite boring. I think that Chipper will go deep. The Braves will just build a lead gradually with no sign of a comeback from the Cards.
Atlanta Braves or St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals NLDS. Begins Sunday Oct 7.
If Braves move on: The Nats will be a World Series contender for years to come. Their core will be the best in the MLB, in my opinion, eventually. Their lineup is very strong, with the likes of “The Phenom,” Bryce Harper, ageless Adam Laroche, Mike Morse, Ian Desmond, Ryan Zimmerman, and Jayson Werth.  But, unfortunately for the Nats, this is their first time in the playoffs. Regular season wins are one thing, but winning in the playoffs is a whole different world. The Braves on the other hand, are a team that has been in the playoffs almost annually.
Prediction: Braves win in 4 games,
The Braves will win it pretty handedly too. The Nats rotation isn’t even as good as people make it out to be, especially with no Strasburg. Gio will be outdueled by Medlen in the first game, Zimmermann will win the 2nd game, then the Braves will put the foot down and blow out the Nats in games 3 and 4. The fact that Washington’s even considering using Lannan is absurd.
If Cardinals Move on: This one would be a little more interesting, although I think it won’t happen. Yes, the Cardinals have just as much playoff experience as the Braves, but I think that the Braves are a more complete team. The lineups are similar, but I think when it comes to pitching, (bullpen included) the Braves are much better. I think experience will come into play, but it won’t have as much impact as it would in a series with the Braves. I think the Nationals match up better with the Cardinals than they do with the Braves. I’d go as far to say that these are the 2 most similar teams in the Major Leagues, when it comes to talent.
Prediction: Cardinals win in 5 games.
If you hadn’t noticed, I’m not a firm believer in “Natitude” this year. This would be a fun series to watch, with 2 teams that don’t like each other at all. Experience will be the difference here, again. I can see a Chris Carpenter vs Gio Gonzalez game 5, NLDS 2011-esque.
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds NLDS, starts Saturday Oct 6.
This will be another fun one. The Reds really haven’t struggled all season. They are consistently awesome. Some doubt if their playoff rotation can keep up, but I actually think that Cueto, Arroyo, Latos is lethal. Latos has been one of the best pitchers in the National league since the All Star Break, with a 2.84 ERA. Johnny Cueto has been the 2nd best pitcher in the whole National League all year, finishing the year 19-9, with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. The Reds offence is very overlooked. They have who may be the best pure hitter in the game, in Joey Votto, as well as All-Star 2nd baseman, Brandon Phillips, and the wildly underrated Jay Bruce. Watch out for the Reds.
The Giants, on the other hand, aren’t to shabby themselves. They have the NL MVP this year, catcher Buster Posey. Pablo Sandoval is a top 3 (perhaps) 3rd baseman in all of baseball, and Hunter Pence in right field, whom they acquired in a trade with the Phillies, so the middle of the order is as good as it gets. What concerns me, is the rest of the lineup. The lineup contains a platoon of Brandon Crawford and Joaquin Arias at shortstop, Marco Scutaro at 2nd base, Brandon Belt at 1st base, and a platoon of Gregor Blanco and Xavier Nady in Left Field. I can’t see a team getting very far with those 6 in the lineup consistently. The only way that the Giants go further than the first round, is if their pitching really amps it up in a big way, which it is capable of doing, mind you.
Prediction: Reds win in 4 Games.
Posey, Pence, and Sandoval will do what they can, but in the end, the Giants just won’t score enough runs. The Reds will out-hit the Giants, and it’s really as simple as that. Their pitching staffs are similar enough that the games will be close, but the Reds will be in command all series.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves NLCS. Starts Sunday Oct 14.
The Reds have the ability to win this series. That’s a fact. Their rotation is strong, their bullpen is strong, their lineup is strong. I can’t take anything away from them.
The Braves have the ability to win this series. That’s a fact. Their rotation is strong, their bullpen is strong, their lineup is strong. I can’t take anything away from them either.
I guess what I’m trying to say here is that this series could go either way. There are no glowing flaws in either of these teams. All I know is that it’s going to be fun.
Prediction: Braves in 7 games.
I don’t have a reason for it here. I think Chipper will come up with a big hit. I’m just going with my gut. The Braves are my pick to win the National League Pennant.
World Series
Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves. Starts Wednesday, Oct 24
By this time in the playoffs, most of my predictions will most likely be proven wrong, but nevermind that, I’m here to break down what I think will happen in this year’s Fall Classic. This year, unlike other years, I believe that the 2 best teams in the MLB will make it to the World Series. They are the 2 most complete, the 2 most well managed, and the 2 most talented teams in all of baseball.
Like before, my high praise for Detroit continues. In terms of starting pitching, they are superior to the Braves. In terms of hitting, they are about equal, and I’d give the edge to the Braves when it comes to bullpen. When it comes to the managers, both are great, but I’ll give Leyland the slight edge over Gonzalez.
Prediction: Tigers win in 6 games!
Justin Verlander will be the difference as he’ll outduel Medlen in this thriller of a series. Chipper Jones will have a series to remember, but fall short in his last career playoff series. Miguel Cabrera will get hot, scorching hot. I think that he will hit a walk-off home run at some point in the series. The Detroit Tigers will win the World Series in 2012.
Isaac Boloten


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Wednesday, October 3, 2012

AA Needs to Give Toronto Some October Baseball in 2013


AA will hopefully be on the phone a lot this
off-season as he searches for a few starting
 pitchers to help the Jays in 2013.
I am not writing this article to make a point that AA is running out of time in his new GM honeymoon. He isn't. It is completely unfair to start saying Alex Anthopolous is doing a bad job before his draft jewels like the Lansing 3(soon to be Dunedin 3) or the key pieces he has received in trades have made it up to the majors. I am writing this to say that if AA is smart, which he clearly is, then he would do everything in his power to make sure that the Blue Jays are playing meaningful games in September come 2013, and maybe even a few games in everybody's favourite baseball month, October. I also don't want this to sound like something you'll read on Bleacher Report(if you were to be reading Bleacher Report of course, it would be against your will), but it might due to the list I'm about to give, so bare with me on that one. So...On to the reasons why AA should get this team to October next year.

5. The Beast Doesn't Like Being Wrong
Paul Beeston made a pretty big declaration at the State of the Franchise event last January that he expects this Blue Jays team to make the playoffs about 3 times in the next 5 years. This year is over with no postseason play for the Jays, which only leaves 4 more years. Making the playoffs 3 times in 4 years is a daunting task, especially in the AL East.Just ask the Rays, or the Red Sox, or the Glory Year Blue Jays. Considering that the current Blue Jays team doesn't really have a chance until 2014, Alex needs to do some retooling this off-season. Whether it is through free agency or trades, AA needs to work some of his Ninja magic and make sure Paul Beeston isn't wrong by acquiring some starting pitching!

4. It Could Always Be Your Last Chance
We all know it. In fact, most people in North America know it. Toronto Sports fans are arguably the worst fans in the world.They turned on Leafs GM Brian Burke after 4(?) years. Nobody goes to TFC games anymore because it isn't the least bit exciting watch your home team get killed, for 90+ minutes.  Brian Colangelo has a great reputation, and the Raptors have no hope anyways in the Star dominated NBA, so he sort of gets a free pass when it comes to Raptors fans.AA isn't going to last very long if he doesn't produce a team that can get to the playoffs. The Toronto streets are filled with uneducated fans who will turn against the Silent Assassin himself if something doesn't happen pretty soon. In fact, a lot of "fans" already have turned. AA wants to keep his job. We want AA to keep his job. But we, the rational, level headed, next generation Blue Jays fans, who understand what it takes to build a winner, and understand how long it takes for a farm system to be developed, are not the majority in Toronto. If the Jays suffer another losing season next year, I can almost guarantee that people's patience will have run out, and there will be a lot of people calling for Alex's head(or job in this case). In order for Alex to avoid that inevitable situation, he will need to satisfy our playoff needs in 2013.

3. Don't Repeat the Mistakes of the Past
Gord Ash and JPR wasted Carlos Delgado. JPR wasted Roy Halladay. AA cannot do that with Jose Bautista. Jose is turning 32 in a couple of weeks. He isn't getting younger. He is going to be coming off of major wrist surgery next season, and there are no guarantees that he will regain his old form. It could be too late to take advantage of Jose's home run hitting powers. It probably won't be, but AA only has a few years left before Jose will be completely out of his prime(which he is currently exiting), and he will have to be a DH who has a good eye and will hit 20-30 homers.Alex needs to show Jose some good faith,and get some starters, so that Jose has a chance to hit a world series winning walk off homer before his talent is no more.

2. The AL East is Very Weak Right Now
A lot of you are probably disagreeing with me on this one, but if you think about it, the AL East isn't as strong as it once was. The Red Sox are almost Astro(Houston) like. The Orioles will come back down to reality next year. The Rays have no offense, and it doesn't seem like they will be getting some anytime soon. The Yankees eventually need to age, don't they? By 2014, the Rays could have traded for or signed a big offensive player. Baltimore's prospects might get them out of sucking. The Red Sox might actually have a functioning clubhouse, although I think we all doubt that will actually occur. The Yankees, well the Yankees....The Yankees might go spend half a billion dollars on some free agents and could wind up retooling their aging core(though they are trying to lower their payroll). 2013 is a perfect year for the Jays to strike, and with more chances at the playoffs than ever before(well except for this year), AA should go for it.

1.Take Advantage of Those Idiots that play Hockey
The NHL is locked out. From what I've been reading, a full season cancellation is very possible.I, amongst many others, left hockey for good in 2004 which is the last time the NHL locked out. Many more will do the same this year. If Alex makes a a big free agent signing and acquires a pitcher or two via trade, the Blue Jays fan base will no doubt begin to grow. If there is any off-season which could contribute to expanding the fan base, an off-season where Canada's game is not being played professionally is 100% the one to take advantage of. With the Jays set to start losing some money in the new revenue sharing program, a couple more fans can't hurt, can it?

Leave your comments below.

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Wednesday, September 19, 2012

The 3 Basic Moves AA Needs to Make this Off-Season

Before going after starting pitching, which obviously should be Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous' number 1 priority this off-season, there are 3 basic moves that I think should be made by the 3rd year GM. 2 to help(or clear up) the bullpen, and 1 to fill the void at second base that will be made when, hopefully, Kelly Johnson packs his things, and goes to strike out somewhere else in the MLB.

1.Let RP Brandon Lyon walk as a Free Agent: It is hard for me to say this as it has been a great pleasure to see Lyon sit batters down like it's going out of style since coming over in that huge not so huge trade with the Astros completed in July, but it needs to be done. The 33 year old from Salt Lake City,Utah has a k/9 ratio of 11.1 with the Jays this year(20.1 IP), but is making $5.5MM in 2012. Given his success this season, I see no reason why that salary will not be in the $7MM range next season, which is a huge amount of money, and frankly, I rather see that spent elsewhere. Unfortunately the Blue Jays will not receive any compensation for letting Lyon walk, except for that extra cash to spend on other aspects of the team that need fixing.
If Lyon is not brought back, the bullpen in 2013 should look like this, barring any FA signings and/or trades, injuries.
CL Casey Janssen
SU Sergio Santos
SU Darren Oliver
MRP Steve Delabar
MRP Brad Lincoln
MRP Aaron Loup
MRP Brett Cecil
Which brings me to my next point of...
2. Sign Brett Cecil to a 4 year, $6.25MM contract extension with 2, $1.5MM club options for 2017 and 2018:"What? The guy has a career 4.73 ERA and you want to extend him?" Ya, that's exactly what I want done...how did you know?(was it because it says that above this?) Cecil is lights out against lefties, and will make a great reliever for many years to come. His velocity has been down as a starter the past couple of seasons as a starter, but when he relieves, his velocity sits at 91-92. Still not so good, but at least whenever he makes a mistake at that velocity, it won't be out of the ballpark every time. With the upcoming vacancy in the Blue Jays bullpen due to Brandon Lyon's imminent departure, and due to he fact that Cecil is 26 year old lefty killer who can fill multiple roles for you in the bullpen and rotation, there is no good reason why not to extend him. This contract would buy out his 3 arbitration years, and his 1st year of free agency. Then, AA would have two perfectly priced Anthoptions on him for 2017 and 2018. This is an easy way to keep Cecil, who is a lefty, in your bullpen for at least 4 more years, and save money. Instead of having to sign a lefty killer every off-season, AA will now have one for a cheap price, and, for 2013, should make a nasty 1-2 punch against lefties with Darren Oliver. Another reason why this is a no brainer for Alex; some fans are starting to turn against him, and signing Cecil, who is a fan favourite, could get some of those "Fans" back. This move would solidify the bullpen, and save money, which could be used to...
3. Sign Marco Scutaro to a 1 year, $6.5MM contract, with a club option for 2014 at $6MM: Scutaro is the exact opposite of current Blue Jays 2nd baseman Kelly Johnson. He rarely misses the ball(only 48 strikeouts in all of 2012), and, as a result of that, he gets on base, a lot! He has a .372 OBP since being acquired by the Giants in July(49 GP), and a career mark of .339. Marco, who played with the Jays for 2 season in 2008 and 2009, is just the stop gap AA needs, as there really are no second base or shortstop prospects in the Blue Jays system right now. Chances are Scutaro will re-sign with the Giants, as he said he would like to do, but if not, AA better jump on this opportunity to get a second baseman. A move like this would allow the Blue Jays to trade one of Yunel Escobar or Adeiny Hechavarria, as only one of them would no longer be needed. So, a signing of Scutaro  could fill a hole in the rotation. Yup, another amazing reason to get Scutaro back north of the border!

What do you think of these moves, let us know with your well appreciated comments below.

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Sunday, September 9, 2012

Baseball in Autumn


I love Autumn.  The leaves begin to change color and the temperature begins to be bearable.  I love wearing hoodies and vests.  The long drives just to see the new colors as they appear.  Autumn is also when the postseason begins for baseball.  
There already are commercials on FOX promoting their postseason coverage.  The Blue Jays have not been in the fall classic in over 19 years now since they won it all in 1993.  This season will be no different.  This season will also be completed with an asterix beside it with all of the injuries they have endured. 

But there is something bigger than getting players healthy that needs to be addressed next season.
The Toronto Blue Jays need to fix the impression that the average fan has of them.  

Below is a picture from the local newspaper that I received at my front porch just a few hours ago.  





I would like to think that the cartoonist is taking a double shot at the team by poking fun at the fact that the Baltimore Orioles (I know its a robin not an Oriole but its looks close enough) are in playoff contention and the Blue Jays are not, but I doubt they were that smart.

Ever since players like Carlos Delgado, Roger Clemons and recently Roy Halladay; I believe the mainstream media have been taking shots at the Blue Jays for their lack of success.  I am not talking about the major sports media outlets, who showcase the nightly highlight shows on TV.  But the average Toronto newscast.
If your reading this, chances are you probably are a Blue Jays fan, but think about what the average guy at work thinks about the Blue Jays when you mention their losses as of late.
I am not sure why people who don’t know or watch the Blue Jays have this idea that they are not a good team.

The only thing to combat that notion is winning – and a lot of it.  In the past 10 years, the Blue Jays have won at least 81 games, 7 out of the 10 seasons.  Only once (in 2004) did they lose 90 or more games.  A feat they are not on pace for but could reach.  They have averaged the 4th worst attendance percentage (at 54.5% with 26,854 people per game).  Beating only Houston, Cleveland and Seattle percentage wise.

I think they are at least 20-25,000 fans in Toronto who regularly attend games.  The trick is getting the other 40% of the dome filled.  At the beginning of the season I was seeing a lot more hats and jerseys around the city.  There was an excitement in April surrounding the Blue Jays.  We all had a feeling the post season might be a reach, but an 81 game season, was attainable.

We all know that every team has injuries and other hurdles they need to move past to have great seasons.  Injuries will hold any team back but to have the amount the Blue Jays have had (and are still having with Happ and now Cooper just this week), it certainly can be a buzz kill.

The thing that holds Jays fans attention is the development on the young rookies – Gose, Hech, Lawrie, and Sierra.  But try selling that to the fan who couldn’t tell you where the Blue Jays triple-AAA team plays or what position Brett Lawrie naturally plays.

Its easy to say, ‘those are not really fans anyways’.  But as long as the Blue Jays play in the Rogers Centre, the team will have to find a way to attract the other 40% of fans who come to be entertained by wins alone.

Sadly, until the Blue Jays play in October, we will continue to see comics like this appear in local newspapers across Toronto.  The idea that the Blue Jays are losers needs to be reversed.  Lets hope 2013 is the beginning of something special like it was in 1989 when they won the AL East and began to build towards 5 years of success and two world series wins.

Derek

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Thursday, September 6, 2012

Something is Happ-ening Here


The Toronto Blue Jays were the #1 team in Runs Scored…and then the (pitching) wheels fell off. Actually, broke off might be slightly more appropriate. In July the Blue Jays were forced to deal with significant injuries to Morrow, Drabek, Hutchison, Frasor, Perez; compounded with the season-ending early injuries to Santos and McGowan. I believe that the introduction and performance of J.A. Happ is a big part of the silver lining that Blue Jays fans will have to sift through in order to step back from the ledge.

J.A. Happ was brought into the Blue Jays organization earlier this season from Houston as part of a stopgap program of pitching help that GM Anthopoulos attempted. The Blue Jays pitching rotation was decimated by injuries around the midpoint of the 2012 season, and Happ was the type of available player that could help keep the team afloat. However, bad news became grave news. The injuries that piled up have been devastating and yet the addition of southpaw Happ should be good news.

J.A. Happ was an intriguing young pitcher who found brilliant early success with the Philadelphia Phillies. Happ was rumoured to be a part of Roy Halladay trade talks – and as history has proven, AA always gets his man. Happ has faltered in recent years, giving up far too many HRs and not displaying the crisp fastball command that attracted so many suitors in 2009. Happ saw his numbers post-2009 begin to climb in the wrong direction: higher H/9 doubled his ER/9, almost doubled his BB/9, and as his manager in Houston pointed out his “arm” just didn’t work like it should.
 
The mysterious aura surrounding the J.A. Happ fastball up in the zone continues to perplex hitters. Watching Happ repeatedly deliver his 91-93mph fastball up in the zone without it being punished is stupefying. Yet it works! I anticipate the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays to give Happ a legitimate chance at the starting rotation, and I would be very content with a solid veteran innings-eater who can pitch to the caliber of a Clayton Richard or Randy Wells. With all of the uncertainty surrounding this young promising team, a little stability is a welcome sign of reprieve.


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Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Is the Bullpen the Place for Brett Cecil?

When Brett Cecil was called back up to the Blue Jays a few days ago, Jays Manager John Farrell placed him in the bullpen to be part of the Relief corps. Cecil made his 1st appearance as a Relief Pitcher for the Jays on Monday, pitching 2 innings allowing 3 hits,2 walks, and 1 earned run. Looking at that line you assume he pitched very badly, but his outing was actually very promising. His fastball velocity was up(a product of being in the bullpen), and his slider, as always, was nasty against lefties. Cecil came into ST this season a lot lighter than last season, 32 pounds lighter! This was part of an effort to regain his lost velocity that went missing in 2011. It did nothing, and Cecil was in the same situation as 2011, just he was in better shape. Brett made 9 starts earlier this season filling in for one of the injured spots in the rotation. He wasn't so bad(minus 2 horrible starts on June 23rd and July 8th), but was sent down a few weeks ago when his fill-in services were no longer needed.

The question with Brett over the past couple of seasons has been;Is Brett Cecil best suited in the rotation, or is he better off in the bullpen?

There are obviously 2 sides to this debate, and I think the Blue Jays are finally realizing that he could be a very dominant reliever.
Reasons why Brett should be a Reliever
Brett, like a lot of lefties, is a lefty killer! Left handers are hitting just .189 against him this season, and only .231 lifetime. He can be used as a lefty specialist out of the bullpen, and would be very dominant. A switch to being a reliever at this stage in Brett's career would be similar to what fellow teammate Darren Oliver did earlier on in his long career. Darren suffered through 12 full horrific years of starting before finally switching to being a reliever in 2004. Ever since then he has been one of the best in the game, and has been able to extend his career because of it. Of course Darren switched much later on in his career than where Brett is right now, but it might not be such a bad idea.

As I mentioned earlier, Brett lost 2-3 MPH on his fastball last season, and has not gained them back.  He went from throwing 91-92 in 2010, to 87-89 this season and in 2011.  Those numbers are when starting, as on Monday, when he was relieving, he averaged 90.92 MPH, but hit 92 multiple times.When he was drafted, as a closer, Brett was throwing 94-95 MPH. So, we can assume that if Brett does regain that lost velocity, he could be throwing around 94 MPH consistently out of the bullpen. Is a reliever who is lights out against lefties, has a hard fastball, and a nasty slider more valuable than what Cecil could be as a starter?

How Brett can get back to being a solid #4 Starter
Obviously, the easiest way for Brett to get back to being a good back of the rotation pitcher is by regaining his velocity. But how could he do that? It is most likely pretty simple. Brett lost all of that weight last off-season in a very short period of time. His arm was not going to get stronger from him getting "weaker".  If Brett is able to add some muscle to his new thin body, he might be able to get that extra zip on his fastball again. If he can sit over 90 MPH again, he doesn't need to rely completely on control. He would be able to leave a ball over the plate without knowing that it will get crushed. Right now, when he leaves a 86 or 87 MPH fastball down the heart of the plate, it is not coming back. Another factor that has to do with velocity is his GB%. In 2010, batters were hitting the ball on the ground almost 45% of the time against Cecil. This season they are putting it on the ground at a rate of 34%.  That's a huge factor that has led to his HR/9 rate go up by .20. Putting on that extra muscle to compliment his new body could get Cecil throwing hard again, and back to how he was in 2010, or even better.

I feel like this article was all over the place, so I'll just summarize my points.
1. Cecil's lefty splits would make him a great specialist out of the bullpen.
2. Cecil's increased velocity as a reliever makes him more effective in that role.

1. Brett can gain that velocity back if he puts on muscle this off-season to compliment all the weight he lost last winter. This would get him back up to 91-92 when starting, and he would be a good back end starter.
2. With that increased velocity would come less home runs(which has been Cecil's kryptonite this season), and more ground ball outs.

Where do you prefer Brett? If he doesn't regain his past velocity, would you still want him there? Leave your comments below with your opinion.

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