BlueJaysPlus Podcast Episode 6: The one Where we Interview Portlanders

Because the Jays are way to depressing to talk about, we only talked about them for about 20 minutes, and then had a couple of fantastic interviews. The first is with Matthew Kory of BP and Over the Monster, and the second is with Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs, USS Mariner, and formerly of Lookout Landing. Enjoy.








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Waiver Abuse

Drunk Jays fans the drunkest in baseball?

Sullivan on Rasmus

Waiver Wire Target - Casper Wells

Casper Wells – Waiver Wire Target

During this past off-season, the Seattle Mariners went out of their way to upgrade the production they have received from their corner outfielders, first base, and designated hitter.  In order to do this, they acquired 1B/DH Kendrys Morales, 1B/OF Michael Morse, OF Jason Bay, and OF/DH Raul Ibanez.  What this has done is force a very capable outfielder in Casper Wells onto the waiver wire.  On the final cut down day, the Mariners made the wrong call in opting to keep the washed up Jason Bay instead of the multicapable Wells,  

Since Mr. Wells was designated for assignment, the Mariners have til Saturday to either cut him loose, or find a trade partner for him.  I think that the Jays should be one of the first teams claiming him if he makes it to waivers.  As Gideon, and myself have discussed on the last two podcasts, the Blue Jays may be looking for a platoon partner for both Colby Rasmus, and Adam Lind against tough left handed pitchers.  At the moment one of the primary options for that role is Rajai Davis, and so lets compare what Davis and Wells have done during their career vs. left handed pitching. 

Davis vs. LHP – 754 PA - .290/.349/.417 – 15.4 K%, 7.8 BB%

Wells vs. LHP – 313 PA - .264/.349/.489 – 26.2 K%, 10.2 BB%

While Wells isn’t a natural center fielder, but he has played there in 35 major league games, and over 200 minor league games. Unlike Davis, his speed isn’t a plus asset, but his instincts as an outfielder allow him to be a superior defensive outfielder than Davis has been throughout his career.  In limited playing time, Wells has consistently been 5 runs above average defensively, contrast that with Davis who is routinely 5 to 10 runs below average. 

Especially since the team is currently carrying 8 relief pitchers, I’d think there would be very little risk in claiming a quality depth player like Casper Wells.  I have doubts whether Wells would get past a team as desperate for talent like the Minnesota Twins, so I wouldn’t even have an issue with the Jays trading a low level prospect in order to jump to the front of the queue to assure they get him.

30 Teams in 30 Days: Seattle Mariners

King Felix is good at baseball...

2012 Record: 75-87 (Last in the AL West)

Key Additions: 
Raul Ibanez (1 year, $2.75M)
Oliver Perez (1 year, $1.5M)
Robert Andino (Trade with BAL)
Jason Bay (1 year, $1M)
Mike Morse (Trade with WAS, OAK)
Jon Garland (Minor League Contract)
Joe Saunders (1 year, $6.75M)
Kendrys Morales (Trade with LAA)

Key Subtractions: 
Miguel Olivo (Minor League Contract with CIN)
Jason Vargas (Trade with LAA)
John Jaso (Trade with OAK, WAS)
Shawn Kelley (Trade with NYY)

Although the Mariners don't have much of a chance of getting to the playoffs this year, they did add a few pieces to their core that could help out their bright future. Not included in the "Key Additons" section was their massive extension of Felix Hernandez. If the M's have any real shot of staying relevant in the AL West, King Felix has to be very much on his game. Locking him up was by far the largest move they made this off season, and has put any trade rumours to rest for the distant future.

New guy that will help out the most: 

Mike Morse is destined for another powerful year this year, having hit 18 home runs in only 102 games in 2012. He is absolutely crushing the ball this spring, for what it's worth. Also, although SafeCo has been known to be an extreme pitcher's park in the past, the fences have been moved in this year, how much that affects the park's tendencies remains to be seen, but it certainly can't be a bad thing for Morse, as his only real tool is the ability to hit for power.

Spring Training Battles: 

Who will be the 5th starter? Brandon Maurer, Blake Beavan, or Jon Garland?
Coming into camp, Beavan appeared to be the favourite for this job, having been with the team for the good part of 2012. Beavan statistically is no star. Last year he posted a 4.85 FIP, to go along with a historically bad K/9 of 3.96. Despite his shortcomings, he has shown the ability to eat innings, so he wouldn't be a nightmare in the 5th spot.

Jon Garland wasn't on anyone's radar to begin the spring, but seemed to emerge as a real candidate as the spring went along, although that seemed to have fizzled, as he has struggled of late and the Mariners are probably starting to realize that this Jon Garland is the same Jon Garland who has posted a career 4.68 FIP.

Righty Brandon Maurer actually appears to be running away with the job. The 22 year old has never pitched above AA, but his stats last year were stellar, posting a 3.02 FIP over 137.2 innings. Although Maurer will likely start the season in the rotation, the leash will be very short for him, given his age and his lack of time in AAA, so you could see Beavan win the job right back during the regular season.

What are the M's going to do with their lineup, with playing time at 1B, DH, LF, CF, and RF up for grabs? 

First and foremost, it appears that first base is Justin Smoak's job to lose. He has hit very well this spring, making many M's fans excited for what he has in store for them this season. I don't see all that much from Smoak, but he isn't terrible in the field, and the fences moving in at SafeCo should help the already immense power potential that he possesses.

As for DH, the M's will predominantly use Morales, but as we know, Morales is very hit-or-miss, and has been prone to injuries, opening the door for Jason Bay, Casper Wells, etc... to get some time there, although the right thing if something happens to Morales would be to put Morse in at DH, as Morse is a defensive liability in every which way.

If you see Morse having time at DH, it's possible that Bay or Wells can play some left field.

Another thing to consider is that Franklin Gutierrez, the projected starting centre fielder, seems to have lost his defensive superiority, with a huge decline last year. In 2009, Gutierrez was in the conversation for best defensive centre fielder in the MLB, with a 32 DRS. In 2012, it dropped all the way down to -4 (granted in a small sample size of 40 games). Combine the defensive decline with his inability to hit, you could see Gutierrez out of a starting role during the season, paving the way for Michael Saunders to move to centre, making an outfield of Bay/Wells-Saunders-Morse.

Questions heading into the season:

Was extending Felix Hernandez the right move? 

This extension was one of the biggest risks that any team took this offseason. The contract will make Hernandez a Mariner right through his prime. He is by far the best player on the team right now. Signing your best player to an extension may seem like a no-brainer, and it really was. Now, the M's must make the most out of locking up an elite pitcher during his prime. The question now is, do you trade your prospects for established big-leaguers, or wait to see if this stacked farm system pans out? With names like Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen, James Paxton, Mike Zunino, and Nick Franklin all expected to be with the M's in the next few years, the future does look bright, but it's possible that trading them now could net you the best value, in terms of an established MLB players. The M's already agreed to a deal to acquire Justin Upton, but Upton blocked the deal with his no-trade clause. That proposed deal could give you a hint for things to come, and the M's could be getting a star in the not-so distant future. Whether that it will be the right decision remains to be seen, but risks do have to be taken, if you want to be successful.

Prospect who'll make the most impact in 2013: 

Position players Nick Franklin and Mike Zunino are both expected to be with the Mariners at some point this year, but I personally think the player who'll help the most is Danny Hultzen. It looks like Hultzen has no chance of taking the 5th starter job out of spring, but with either Brandon Maurer or Blake Beavan pitching at the back end, a solid start to the year from Hultzen would make it rather easy for him to get a job. The lefty has great command of the strike zone, and has a lights-out slider that I am sure we will see making people look silly for years to come.


Projected Roster (via MLBDepthcharts.com)

Projected 'Go-To' Starting Lineup 
1 2B Dustin Ackley* 
2 CF Franklin Gutierrez
3 3B Kyle Seager*    
4 LF Michael Morse 
5 DH Kendrys Morales** vs RHP 
6 C Jesus Montero 
7 1B Justin Smoak**   
8 RF Michael Saunders*
9 SS Brendan Ryan 

Projected Bench 

C Kelly Shoppach
IF Robert Andino   
OF Jason Bay vs LHP
OF Raul Ibanez*  

Projected Starting Rotation
1 RHP Felix Hernandez
2 LHP Joe Saunders
3 RHP Hisashi Iwakuma 
4 RHP Erasmo Ramirez  
5 RHP Blake Beavan

Projected Bullpen 
CL RHP Tom Wilhelmsen  
SU RHP Carter Capps BA#7 
SU LHP Charles Furbush
MID RHP Stephen Pryor 
MID LHP Oliver Perez
MID LHP Lucas Luetge

LR RHP Kameron Loe  

Projected Record: 72-90 (4th in AL West)

This team has great potential on their roster right now, with a young bullpen, and possible breakout years from Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero, and Justin Smoak, without even mentioning the great prospects that they have down in the minors. Unfortunately, playing in the AL west won't help them out, as this M's team's record will look awfully similar to what it has looked like these past few years. But, on the bright side, they won't finish in last! Yay Astros!

Introducing Steve Delabar

Introducing Steve Delabar

(Or the Real Life Kenny Powers)

            After earlier on in the night dealing away formerly beloved prospect Travis Snider (covered by Gideon earlier), Alex Anthopolous continued to rebuild his bullpen, and at the same time jettison contact challenged outfielders.  In his second deal within the hour, Eric Thames (who started the year as the team’s starting left fielder) was sent to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for intriguing relief arm Steve Delabar. 

            The tale of Delbar’s trip to the major leagues is almost the polar opposite to that of the day’s other acquisition, in former 4th overall pick, Brad Lincoln.  Delabar started his career by being drafted in the 29^th round out of Volunteer State Community College in Tennessee, which isn’t exactly a baseball power house like Lincoln’s alma mater, the University of Houston.  Delabar spent the next 3 seasons bouncing between Rookie and High A ball in the Padres system.  To say he struggled would be putting it very mildly.  He posted ERA’s above 5 at almost every stop, and just could never find the strike zone enough to be effective.

            By the time 2008 came around, the Padres had seen enough, and released him after he posted an ERA of 5.27 in A ball.  Delabar seemed to be following the career path of most 29^th round picks.  They could have fun filing out a low level affiliate (heck, its better than working at Sears), but to expect anything more than that would be a major surprise.  Delabar then took his act to the independent leagues, pitching both in the Frontier League, & the Can-Am league, in Brockton & Florence respectively in ’08, & ’09.  His numbers looked decent, but it looked like his career would be ended when a fractured elbow ended his 2009 season.

            This looked to be the end of the line for Mr. Delabar.  He didn’t pitch the entire 2010 season, instead going back to his home town of Elizabethtown, Kentucky and becoming a substitute teacher.  The only “competitive” ball he played was playing slo-pitch softball.

            If this tale sounds familiar it should, because this is the plot of HBO’s drama Eastbound & Down, minus the big league career, & cocaine abuse.  Guys like this don’t come back unless it’s a scripted TV drama.  Essentially no one had ever really believed in Delabar, evidenced by him being a 29^th round pick, and at the age of 27, after a catastrophic elbow injury, and a year away from the sport, there wasn’t a sole who expected to see Mr. Delabar to turn into a major league pitcher.  No one.

            However Delabar wasn’t done, and he signed a minor league deal with the Mariners in 2011, and after reporting to the hitters paradise that is the California League it was obvious he was a wildly different pitcher.  He shot up all the way from the Cal League to make a late season appearance in the big league pen.  Over the 4 levels he pitched in he struck out 75 batters over the 63 innings he pitched for a 10.9 K/9 rate.  Somehow Delabar in the span of 12 months had gone from being a substitute teacher in the middle of Kentucky, to a member of a big league bullpen (and an effective one at that). 

            In 2012, he proved that the miracle 2011 season was no fluke.  He’s managed to get even better.  He’s struck out 31.1% of the batters he’s faced this season, which places him in the top 20 of all big league relief pitchers.  More impressively, unlike most pitchers with a strikeout rate that high, his control’s been quite good as well.  The only pitchers who’ve struckout more than 30% batters faced who have a walk rate lower than Delabar’s 7.4% are Craig Kimbrel (6.9), Octavio Dotel (6.7), Joel Peralta (5.7), Jake McGee (6.0), & Jonathan Papelbon (5.8).

            What’s almost more impressive than what Delabar has done, is how he’s doing it.  Unlike most big league pitchers, Delabar essentially doesn’t have a breaking pitch.  On occasion he’ll show his slider, but that’s only about 5% of his pitches.  Other than that he gets by on a power 4 seam fastball that averages 93 MPH, and a changeup, which at 86 MPH shows a pretty decent difference in speed.  This has been effective for pitchers in the past (two who stick in my mind are former all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman, and former Brewers closer Doug Jones), but to say its rare would be quite the understatement. 

            While getting a pitcher with these type of peripheral numbers who’s under team control til 2018 is all very positive, that isn’t to say there aren’t reasons to be concerned. There is one notable weakness that Delabar’s shown in the big leagues, and that’s a proclivity to give up the long ball (especially when outside of Safeco Field).  The reason despite all the strikeouts, that Delabar’s ERA is still north of 4.00 is because he leads the league with a shockingly high 2.21 HR/9 rate (which if it keeps up would put him in the top 10 for my lifetime).  Away from the friendly confines of Safeco field it spikes to an absolutely unconscionable 4.70.

            Normally when I see a pitcher with a HR/FB rate of over 27%, but when I look deeper into his home//road splits I just don’t know what to think.  In the cavernous Safeco he’s only allowed 1 HR in 21.1 Innings for a HR/FB rate of 7.7.  On the road, in normal sized ballparks however, things get rather wacky.  He’s allowed 8 HRs in just 15.1 innings, good for a 4.70 HR/9, and a HR/FB rate of 45%.  Those numbers seem unsustainably high, but is something worth considering.

            The last thing to consider within Delabar’s splits are his reverse platoon splits.  This is something you could expect with a pitcher who features a changeup as his only off-speed pitch.  Righties batters have a wOBA of .409, while lefties have hit a pitiful .150.  To boot, all 9 of his Home Runs allowed have come against right handed.   He could function as a 2^nd lefty in the pen the rest of the season, but John Farrell will need to be careful when matching him up.

            Even though Delabar has some flaws, and might need to be protected, he’s a worthwhile arm to acquire.  I’m willing to take a risk on a pitcher who misses as many bats as he does, especially when the cost was only a Quadruple A outfielder in Eric Thames.