Sunday, December 2, 2012

Top 20 Prospects: #11 Adonys Cardona RHP

# 11 Adonys Cardona RHP
Born: January 16, 1994 in La Sabana, Venezuela (Age 18.)
Acquired via: International Free Agency. $2.8 Million in 2010.
Bats: Right. Throws: Right. Height: 6’1’’.Weight: 170 lb.
Baseball America Ranking- Not Listed
Baseball Prospectus Ranking-TBA
Fangraphs Ranking- Not Listed Ranking- #11

Bluefield (R)

2012 Stats and Analysis: 

You can’t really look too much into Cardona’s 2012 stats, because of a tiny 15 innings pitched sample-size, but we can certainly do our best. In Adonys’s short stint with the Bluefield Blue Jays this year, all of his numbers seemed to go up. That’s good in some ways, but can also be bad, depending on the stat. For example, his K% was excellent this year, at 27.4%. With that, his BB% was (as classified by Fangraphs) awful, at 13.7 percent. The ERA was up, the WHIP was up, and yet his FIP was quite a bit above-average. It’s fair to say that Cardona was unlucky this year, with a very high BABIP, but then again, if he had played more than 15 innings, it could have changed dramatically. As a conclusion to his “Stats and Analysis” section, I would say that judging Cardona on 2012 statistics would be completely unfair.

Scouting Report:

Cardona is known to be the best pitcher in the 2010 International Free Agent class. He’s a power pitcher; his fastball can hit 95 mph on the radar gun, and at age 18, his body will mature, and he’ll probably throw even harder. He also throws a hammer curve ball that is absolutely filthy, if he were to ever throw it in the strike zone. He throws a change-up, but it hasn’t been raved about quite yet. His delivery is very easy, and repeatable.  His arm action is overhead. He has a lot of developing to do, but he’s an extremely advanced player for his age. Look for him to work on polishing his off-speed pitches over the next couple years, and he could become a top 5 prospect in the Blue Jays organization.

Where will he be in 2013, and ETA? Projection?

In 2013, you will probably see Cardona attend extended spring training, and make his way to Bluefield to play more rookie ball. His stint in Bluefield could be very short, depending on how his performance is. From there, you could see Cardona in Vancouver playing short-season low-A ball for the Canadians. At age 19 (in January), I can’t see him going any further than there next season. My ETA for Cardona is very open-ended. It’s nice to have the luxury of an 18 year old prospect. You could very well see Adonys soar through the system, and make is major league debut in 2015 (age 21). But, with Cardona, it wouldn’t be the end of the world if he took some more time and made a 2016-2018 arrival, because he’d still be considered very young. I’m really high on Cardona. I think he has the potential to be a 2-3 starter, with the stuff that he has. What he has to do though, is become more of a pitcher, rather than a thrower. He has to learn that outs are the main goal. He just has to stay in the strike zone more. As a matter of fact, based on his BABIP, he could really benefit from that, because he’s bound to be a little bit luckier next year.

 Comments and criticisms welcome below.

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