30 Teams in 30 Days: Miami Marlins

30 Teams in 30 Days: Miami Marlins (Blue Jays South) 

Loria smiles, Miami cries...Toronto cheers!

2012 Record: 69-93 (5th in NL East)

Key Additions: 
Juan Pierre (1 year, $1.6MM)
Yordy Cabrera (Trade with ARZ)
Justin Nicolino (Trade With TOR)
Adeiny Hechavarria (Trade With TOR)
Jake Marisnick (Trade With TOR)
Henderson Alvarez (Trade With TOR)
Jeff Mathis (Trade With TOR)
Placido Polanco (1 year, $2.75MM)
Jon Rauch (1 year, $1MM)
Chone Figgins (Minor League Deal)
Kevin Slowey (Minor League Deal)
Casey Kotchman (Minor League Deal)
Austin Kearns (Minor League Deal)

Key Subtractions: (Here we go...)
Heath Bell (Trade With AZ)
Jose Reyes (Trade With TOR)
Josh Johnson (Trade With TOR)
Mark Buehrle (Trade With TOR)
Emilio Bonifacio (Trade With TOR)
Carlos Lee (Elected Free Agency)
Juan Carlos Oviedo (Formerly Leo Nunez) (Minor League Deal with TB)
Carlos Zambrano (Elected Free Agency)

Which new guy will help the most in 2013?

The 2013 Miami Marlins, despite losing some of their best players, did bring a lot of new faces into town. One would usually look at youngsters Adeiny Hechavarria or Henderson Alvarez, but I don't think that they will shine this year as much as some say they will. The chances of prospect Jake Marisnick arriving in 2013 are slowly diminishing, with him breaking his hand in spring training. This leads me to Juan Pierre. It may not have seemed this way, but Juan Pierre played just like Juan Pierre has played his entire career in 2012 with the Phillies. Even at 36 years of age, Pierre still has the ability to steal 30 bases. Every year that Pierre has played, he has stolen at least 30 bases, which is really quite remarkable. The Marlins may not have a lot to look forward to in 2013, but at least they can count on one juan guy to provide some speed and excitement on the basepaths.

Spring Training Battles

There is really only one significant Spring Training battle for the 2013 Marlins, and that is the fight for the 5th spot in the rotation. With Ricky Nolasco, Henderson Alvarez, Nathan Eovaldi, and Jacob Turner all being locks for the rotation, it only leaves one spot for the likes of Wade Leblanc, John Maine, Alex Sanabia and Brad Hand. In my opinion you can throw Sanabia and Maine out of the question, because if either of them were to win the job, the Marlins would be throwing out 5 righties in the rotation. Plus, Maine hasn't pitched a major league game since 2010, and his stats in the minors have been horrid to put it nicely, and Sanabia hasn't posted a FIP in the minors below 4 since 2010. Between Leblanc and Hand, I would give the clear edge to LeBlanc, as he has some pretty decent MLB statistics, and much much higher upside.

Questions Heading into the Year

Just how bad will the Marlins be?

I believe that it has already been established, the 2013 Miami Marlins will be nothing short of a circus act. Other than Giancarlo Stanton, will there be a player who posts a WAR upwards of 2? Possibly not. (Maybe Hechavarria, Cishek, Nolasco, or Pierre).

Although they will be terrible in 2013, I was surprised to see just how bad the Marlins were in 2012. If they can catch a few breaks, win a few 1 run games, Orioles-esque, you could see them matching or improving on their win total from 2012. That should provide some perspective.

Is a Stanton trade inevitable?

This year, slugger Giancarlo Stanton will appear to be a man amongst boys on his team. Giancarlo doesn't appear to be a headcase, but no man in his right mind would actually want to play in Miami right now. You could see Stanton demanding a trade midseason when he realizes how bad of a situation that the team is in. Somewhere down the line, you're going to have to pay Stanton, something, and as we know, Jeffrey Loria doesn't like doing that to players. Trading him sooner than later would probably maximize his trade value. If I was a betting man, I would wager that Stanton won't be a Marlin come 2014.

Prospect who will make the biggest impact in 2013

Coming into his first full season in the majors, Adeiny Hechavarria is poised to show just how good he is on the defensive side of the ball. Many, including myself, don't believe that Hechavarria will ever be a productive shortstop offensively, but his defense makes up for it. The combination of his great range and strong arm is one that should bring home a few gold gloves( or whatever award you want to use to measure defense) in the future, possibly even as early as 2013, especially because the advanced defensive metrics will now be used to choose the Gold Glove winners. I don't think that Hech will be a star in 2013 by any means, but I think he will make a name for himself, at the least.

Projected Roster (via mlbdepthcharts.com)

Projected 'Go-To' Starting Lineup
1 LF Juan Pierre* vs RHP  
2 3B Placido Polanco
3 RF Giancarlo Stanton  
4 1B Logan Morrison* +  Questionable for start of season: KNEE SURGERY ON 9/7/12 
5 CF Justin Ruggiano 
6 C Rob Brantly* BA#6  vs RHP  
7 2B Donovan Solano 
8 SS Adeiny Hechavarria BA#7

Projected Bench 
C Kyle Skipworth* 
IF Nick Green
IF/OF Greg Dobbs*   
IF/OF Chone Figgins**
OF Gorkys Hernandez vs LHP

Projected Starting Rotation
1 RHP Ricky Nolasco
2 RHP Henderson Alvarez  
3 LHP Wade LeBlanc
4 RHP Nathan Eovaldi  
5 RHP Jacob Turner  

Projected Bullpen 
CL RHP Steven Cishek
SU RHP Jon Rauch
SU RHP Ryan Webb
MID LHP Mike Dunn
MID RHP Chris Hatcher  
MID LHP Daniel Jennings  
LR RHP Tom Koehler

Projected Disabled List
Position Players
•C Jeff Mathis +  FRACTURED COLLARBONE ON 2/23/13 

Projected 2013 Record: 65-97 ( 5th in NL East)

Everything about this 2013 Marlins team is ugly. From their stadium, to the sculpture in left field, to their rotation, to their bullpen, to their lineup, to Logan Morrison's twitter account. Is anyone going to show up to the games? Most likely not. Loria is in hot water now, but when the attendance at Marlins Park is at a record low, that water will become boiling, and I can say with confidence that he will deserve every bit of criticism he receives. It's only a matter of time until Bud Selig and his army of old rich men do something about it, but until then, Miami will get to watch bad baseball and enjoy having a crook as their owner.

The Trade is Official!

Bud Selig has, after 6 days(although he only received the paperwork on Friday) has approved the mega-deal between the Jays and Marlins that sends All Stars Josh Johnson,Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, John Buck,speedster IF/OF Emilio Bonifacio, and an undisclosed amount of cash(last we heard it was $8million) to the Jays! Going to the Marlins in the trade are Major Leaguers Yunel Escobar, Jeff Mathis, and Henderson Alvarez along with prospects Adeiny Hechavarria, Jake Marisnick, Anthony DeSclafini, and Justin Nicolino. I have nothing really to say other than "RBI's for JOSE BAUTISTA"...cause you know, with Reyes and Melky in front of him, he will lead the league in that meaningless stat, and stop Miguel Cabrera from winning the triple crown again!!!

In other news, Manny Acta is going to be working in TV next year, and they haven't even contacted him, so cross him off the list.

Who do you want to be manager? Leave your comments below.

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Trade Reaction:AA is Still Awesome

The big 3 that the Jays acquired yesterday, from
right to left:JJ,Reyes, and Buehrle

In case you were having doubts, Alex Anthopolous is still a top 5 GM in the MLB. You all know by now, but if you don't, the Jays and Marlins made a trade that is bigger than the one that brought Joe Carter and Roberto Alomar to Toronto in 1990.It was:

To Toronto:
Josh Johnson
Mark Buehrle
Jose Reyes
John Buck
Emilio Bonifacio
$8.5 Million

To Miami:
Henderson Alvarez
Yunel Escobar
Adeiny Hechavarria
Justin Nicolino
Jake Marisnick
Anthony Desclafini
Jeff Mathis

Yup. If not for Jeffrey Loria being a cheap skate(see this article written by our own Ewan Ross in July for more details), this trade would not have been done. But, because Loria ruined baseball in Montreal, and scammed the city of Miami out of $500 million, the Jays got lucky! So...On to some trade analysis? Why not?

Josh Johnson- JJ has long been coveted by Blue Jays fans. I can remember having countless conversations on twitter last off-season and in July about acquiring JJ from the Marlins, and it really just seemed like a forgone conclusion that it was going to happen. The Jays and Marlins matched up so well  as trade partners, and Johnson fits in perfectly with this team. In just 9 starts in 2011, he had a WAR of 2.8, so you can see how good he is. After missing most of 2011 due to injuries, he came back in 2012, and was pretty good. He pitched to a 3.40 FIP, and his velocity was basically the same on all of his pitches as it was pre-surgery, so there isn't such a big reason to be concerned about his health. He also pitched over 190 innings, so he seems to be durable once again. Josh is only under contract for 2013, so an extension seems to be something AA would like to get done. It is going to be fun watching this 2-time all-star pitch, whether that is Opening day, or game #2, we will get to witness a great pitcher, one who was considered one of the 7 or 8 aces in the MLB before having surgery.

Mark Buehrle- Workhorse. That is what Buehrle is, and that is what he hopefully will remain. Mark has pitched over 200 innings every year since 2001, and has only posted a WAR less than 2 once since then. He provides the Jays with something they haven't had in a while, and will look great in that number 3 spot for Toronto. His contract is pretty bad because he was a FA, and you always over pay in free agency, but, that doesn't seem to be a problem anymore with this new less cheap version of Rogers.

Add those famous dreads, and Reyes will look
awesome wearing the blue and white!

Jose Reyes- Remember Shannon Stewart(not the 2008 version). He is the last true lead off hitter the Jays have had. Jose Reyes, is, now, a true lead off hitter. When he is healthy, Reyes is the best offensive shortstop in the game(because Tulo is never healthy). We saw that in 2011, and we've seen that many times before. He is going to get on base a lot(.342 career), and will steal close to 40 bases yearly. The only problem with Reyes is that he tears his hamstring when signing an autograph(exaggeration), and playing on the turf at the Skydome will not help him at all! Hopefully the Beest can fulfill his impossible goal of putting grass in the dome. His contract is also pretty bad, but he's amazing, so you can't complain. Reyes batting first is going to be a sight to see. When Jose Bautista hits a home run driving in Jose Reyes, the Jose-Jose-Jose-Jose chants will be deafening in Toronto. That alone will make his contract worth it.

John Buck- There is no question that Buck was the "thrown in" in this deal, but he might be turn out to be a lot more significant than just a throw in. The re-acquisition of Buck allows AA to trade one of JP Arencibia,Travis d'Arnaud, or Buck himself. AA can get another starter, which could be very useful because right now the Jays have no depth in their rotation, or can trade on of them(package with a reliever most likely) for a left fielder. A trade of JPA and Casey Janssen to Texas for David Murphy seems fair, and Murphy would be a perfect fit.

Emilio Bonafacio- Where will Emilio play? That's the big question right now as he can play second base, and the outfield. I'd slot the speedy Bonafacio in the 2 spot in the lineup, playing left field. I personally think with our offense, we can live with Maicer Izturis playing everyday, and trading JPA for a pitcher would bring us more value than a left fielder might. Bonafacio provides a switch hitting hitter who will steal 50+ bases if he plays everyday. Runs won't be hard to come by in 2013 for the Jays, but with 1 injury to the staff, the team could lose its pitching.

There is undoubtedly a lot of risk in this trade. This trade could make the Blue Jays a dynasty, or cripple them for years to come because of the amount of questionable salary taken on. This is the biggest trade in franchise history, but, don't be worried. The odds of this trade not working out for us are much lower than the odds that it succeeds.

Be happy. Enjoy the fact that AA just stole 4 all-stars from the Marlins for a few prospects who are nothing more than prospects, and a few major leaguers who have a lot of question marks. You could worry that this might fail miserably in February, but for now, enjoy!

What do you think about this franchise changing trade? Let us know in the comments section below!


You can follow me on twitter, @gideonturk. To connect with the site, Follow us on Twitter, and Like us on Facebook.

The Hanley Ramirez Trade

The Hanley Ramirez Trade

(or how I’m glad the Blue Jays aren’t owned by a crook)

            Last night, as most of you probably know, the Marlins decided to trade the former face of their franchise, 3^rd baseman Hanley Ramirez.  This has rekindled the ongoing questions as to the integrity of the ownership of Marlins ownership.

             I know Jays fans have lamented for years about how cheap the Rogers corporation has been when running our team, but I think it’s a worthwhile exercise to look at how much worse things could be if you were cheering for another team. 

            While the Marlins have had questionable ownership under original owner Wayne Huizinga, I’m going to focus on the man who’s owned the team since 2003, Jeffrey Loria.  Loria should be familiar to Canadian baseball fans, as he’s the man who presided over the dying years of the Montreal Expos, and the modus operandi that he used in Montreal, is essentially what he’s transferred to the south Florida market. 

            When Loria ran the Expos, he slashed payroll down to impossibly low levels, pleaded poverty, and threatened relocation as a way to blackmail the government into building the Expos a new stadium.  He’s done the exact same thing in Florida. 

From 2005, when the Marlins conducted their most recent firesale (notably trading Miguel Cabrera, & Josh Beckett away) til 2010 (when the stadium had been approved), it seemed that Loria’s goal was to spend as little as he possibly could on payroll.  His goal wasn’t to win ball games, but rather to drive people away from the ballpark both in order to receive as much in revenue sharing that he could, but more importantly to prove that the team couldn’t be viable in their current stadium.

If this was his nefarious objective, it was certainly effective.  Attendance fell from over 22,000 per game in 2005, and never gotten near that until this season (when the new ballpark is spiking attendance).  Combined with MLB threatening relocation, this was enough for Miami-Dade County, & The City of Miami to contribute over $500 million into the construction of new Marlins Park. 

After having a publicly funded ballpark fall into their lap, as well as the threat of an SEC lawsuit hanging over their heads (due to misappropriation of revenue sharing funds), the Marlins went out this offseason and spent like drunken sailors.  They committed $106M to shortstop Jose Reyes, $58M to starting pitcher Mark Buehrle, & $30M to closer Heath Bell.  With those signings (as well the high profile pursuit of Albert Pujols & CJ Wilson) it seemed like the days of the Marlins being a charity case were over. 

            Now less than 6 months after this spending spree, and a disappointing half season later, they seem to be in full on sell mode.  The first trade this week of Anibal Sanchez & Omar Infante didn’t seem too out of line, since it got them two pretty decent prospects, especially given the primary asset they gave up (Sanchez) was an impending free agent.  However, the trade of Hanley Ramirez really has raised my ire about how Jeffrey Loria operates his ballclub. 

            By taking the package they did from the Dodgers they announced, yet again, that they value the bottom line more than they do talent on the field.  Instead of paying a portion of his inflated contract and getting better prospects in return, they chose to dump the entire $31 mil that he’s owed over the next two seasons, and only received back end starter Nathan Eovaldi, and C level prospect Scott McGough.  

Today, we’ve seen increased rumours that they are shopping staff ace Josh Johnson.  If they do that they’ll have shed up to 30 million from this year’s payroll already. 

            Now put yourself into the shoes of a taxpayer in Miami-Dade County.  In the worst economy the country has seen in decades, you’ve paid over 500 million in tax payer money, and what do you have to show for it?  This season’s payroll increase seems all but gone.  All they’ve done is swap Jose Reyes, & Mark Buerhle into the salary slots occupied by Johnson & Ramirez, and you have a team that is back into the constant rebuilding cycle you thought your team had gotten out of by investing all this money.

I’m going to put on my tinfoil hat, and suggesting a conspiracy theory that this trade has raised in my mind.  Bear with me. 

            All three of the contracts given to Bell, Reyes & Buehrle were back loaded, meaning that of the total 196 million they gave out, only 20 of that is being paid out this season.  Now its standard operating procedure in MLB to backload contracts, but when it comes to the history of Marlins I have to wonder whether they did this with an eye to trading these players before the meat of the contracts needed to be paid out. 

If you go back and look at the Marlins history with signing free agents, you’ll see why I’m raising this as a possibility.  In their 20-year history the only player who has signed a long term deal, and been with the team at the end of the contract was Alex Fernandez (and that was only because he was hurt and so they couldn’t trade him).  I don’t think it’s a coincidence that none of the players they signed were given a No Trade Clause.  If this was any other franchise this wouldn’t seem out of the ordinary at all, but in the case of Marlins, I just don’t trust them.

Is it possible that they made these signings just to get publicity going into the new park (and to show the SEC that they were spending money, only to look at trading them before the meat of their contracts kick in? 

            It wont be long before we start to hear questions about the viability of the south Florida market, and about how bad sports fans in Miami are.  However before you go and take the easy cheap shot at those fans, think about how you would react if your team was owned by as big a scum bag as Jeffrey Loria?

            Rogers doesn’t look so bad in comparison, do they?