30 Teams in 30 Days: Houston Astros

2012 Record: 55-107 (6th in NL Central)

Key Additions: 
SP Philip Humber (FA)
1B/LF Chris Carter (3-way trade from Oakland)
1B Carlos Pena (FA)
SP Alex White (trade w/ Rockies)

Key Losses:
SS Jed Lowrie (trade w/ Oakland)
CF Jordan Schafer (ATL claimed off waivers)
RP Wilton Lopez (trade w/ Rockies)

Which New Guy Will Help the Most? 
Although the Astros have had a fairly eventful off-season to date, they really haven’t acquired a big name piece that could help them out significantly this year. Sure they have added Carlos Pena to add some pop to the lineup and Philip Humber to help bolster a lacklustre rotation, but no one really stands out to me as a person where you can say “Yes, this guy is going to breakout and help this team win 60 games.” Of the players acquired since last October, I have to go with SP Philip Humber as the man that will help out the most. Again, do I expect another perfect game or 15 wins out of Humber? No, but I expect him to eat up some innings and contribute a reliable arm in the middle of the Astros’ starting rotation.

One young player that I really like coming up for the Astros is SP Alex White. He was also acquired this offseason in a trade with the Rockies that saw Houston ship out former closer Wilton Lopez for the promising young arm. This twenty four year old right-hander from North Carolina excites me a lot, and could lead the Astros’ rotation in the not-to-distant future, but for 2013, Philip Humber gets the nod.

Spring Training Battles:
This 2013 version of the Astros is a much different one than my first two teams  I previewed (Reds, Braves) as both of those teams are expected to make the postseason after both winning 90+ games last season, so there really weren’t to many positional battles to look at heading into the spring, but with this Astros team, Spring Training is much more than exhibition games as there are really no positions set in stone as Houston is in the midst of a massive rebuild and would rather see development of players than 55 wins. So basically, if you come out of Kissimmee, Florida hitting .400 or with an ERA of 1.00, chances are you’re going to make the big club, but even if you were on the team last year and you hit .100 or have a 7.00 ERA you’ll likely be finding yourself heading to the minor leagues. There really are so many spots available to be won in ST that if I had to list them all in this article, I would run out of room. If you want to see just how much the Houston roster is in flux, just go check out their depth chart. From the outfield with the J.D. and Fernando Martinez at the corners with Justin Maxwell “anchoring” CF to an infield of Matt Dominguez, Tyler Greene, Jose Altuve, and Brett Wallace as your starters can worry a lot of fans in East Texas as with a move to the much tougher AL West, this team is expected to win somewhere in the neighbourhood of 45-50 games. With a lacklustre rotation, suspect bullpen, and paltry outfield, Alan Ashby has a chance to make this team if he put his cleats back on.

Questions Heading into 2013: 
Many of the Houston Astros’ questions heading into this season in about the future and rightfully so as this team has no chance of being 2013's version of the Baltimore Orioles as play in one of the toughest divisions in baseball to boot. So, questions like “Can Jonathan Singleton comeback after his suspension and pair with Carlos Correa to build the next great Astros team?” and “What are we going to do about our starting pitching going forward?” are the types of questions that Astros fans have heading into 2013.

 Prospect who could have the Biggest Impact Heading into 2013: 
The reason why there isn’t much hope in Houston for the next few years is because of two things. The Colts simply don’t have the Major League roster to compete with the likes of the Angels, Blue Jays, and Tigers in the American League and their minor league talent is so far away (we're talking 2015 at the earliest) that the next few years in Houston look pretty bleak. When your best hitter is Jose Altuve (.290 AVG/ 7 HR/ 37 RBI) followed by Carlos Pena (.197 AVG/ 19 HR/ 61 RBI) (the Greek god of K’s) your offense isn’t going to do well, when your staff ace is Lucas Harrell (11-11, 3.76 ERA), your pitching isn’t going to do well, and when your bullpen is anchored by Jose Veras (5-4, 3.63 ERA), you bullpen isn’t going to be very good either. Couple that with your top prospects being suspended 50 games for smoking Marijuana and the other being at Low-A ball, you farm system is going to help you out anytime soon as well.

Projected Roster: 
 Starting Lineup (Projected 2013 Slash Line)

1. SS Tylor Greene (.245 AVG, 9 HR, 28 RBI)
2. 2B Jose Altuve (.300 AVG, 13 HR, 55 RBI)
3. 1B Brett Wallace (.285 AVG, 23 HR, 67 RBI)
4. DH Carlos Pena (.210 AVG, 22 HR, 63 RBI)
5. CF Justin Maxwell (.250 AVG, 28 HR, 75 RBI)
6. LF J.D. Martinez (.235 AVG, 16 HR, 55 RBI)
7. 3B Matt Dominguez (.275 AVG, 14 HR, 48 RBI)
8. RF Fernando Martinez (.255 AVG, 12 HR, 34 RBI)
9. C Jason Castro (.250 AVG, 11 HR, 43 RBI)

Bench 
1B/ OF Chris Carter (.255 AVG, 18 HR, 58 RBI)
C Carlos Corporan (.260 AVG, 9 HR, 22 RBI)
OF Brandon Barnes (.260 AVG, 8 HR, 35 RBI)
UTIL Jake Elmore (.235 AVG, 2 HR, 12 RBI)

Starting Rotation 
 1. Lucas Harrell (14-9, 3.45 ERA)
 2. Bud Norris (9-12, 4.25 ERA)
 3. Jordan Lyles (13-6, 3.25 ERA)
 4. Philip Humber (10-10, 4.65 ERA)
 5. Alex White (11-10, 3.65 ERA)

Bullpen 
Jose Veras (CL) (2-4, 3.70 ERA, 25 SV)
Wesley Wright (SU) (3-4, 3.95 ERA, 4 SV)
Rhiner Cruz (SU) (4-2, 3.50 ERA, 2 SV)
Xavier Cedeno (MR) (5-1, 3.15 ERA, 8 SV)
Joshua Fields (MR) (2-5, 4.35 ERA)
Hector Ambriz (MR) (3-3, 3.85 ERA)
Chia-Jen Lo (LR) (4-4, 4.10 ERA)

Top 5 Prospects Heading into 2013:
1. SS Carlos Correa (.315 AVG, 18 HR, 65 RBI) (APP/ Short)
2. 1B Jonathan Singleton (.295 AVG, 16 HR, 70 RBI) (AA/AAA)
3. OF George Springer (.280 AVG, 23 HR, 78 RBI) (AA)
4. RHP Jared Cosart (13-8, 3.55 ERA, 135.0 IP) (AAA/MLB)
5. RHP Lance McCullers (7-5, 3.45 ERA, 105.0 IP) (APP)


2013 Record: 55-107 (30th in the MLB...) 
Things are going to change in Houston in the somewhat near future as Jonathan Singleton and Carlos Correa should be everyday Big Leaguers by 2016, but until then, we will have to wait and watch Houston (along with Miami) be the laughing stock of baseball for the next few years.


 Nicholas Bell

The Smallest Big Deal in MLB History

The Smallest Big Deal in MLB History 

            Its been a very active 12 hours in Blue Jays news.  Last night was all abuzz about Travis Snider’s call up, but we wake up this morning to find out they’ve been involved in 10 player trade with the Houston Astros.  Here are the specifics.

To Houston: OF Ben Francisco, RHP Francisco Cordero, RHP Asher Wojciechowski, C Carlos Perez, RHP Joe Musgrove, LHP David Rollins, & Player To be Named Later (likely cash)

To Toronto: LHP J.A. Happ, RHP Brandon Lyon, RHP David Carpenter

Now it first glance it seems like the Jays gave up an awful lot of prospects, in order to acquire a back end of the rotation starter (Happ), and two middle relievers (Lyon & Carpenter), however if you dive into the prospects we gave up its really not that much at all.  Lets look at what the Jays gave up in detail before getting to the guys going the other way.

Francisco Cordero – Cordero might be one of the least popular Jays players in the past 5 years.  While I don’t think he’s been quite as bad as most Blue Jays fans think he’s been, there’s no way you can call him anything but bad.  He wouldn’t have had a place in this bullpen with Carpenter and Lyon coming in, so this is just a salary dump, as he matches up with Lyon’s money coming back the other way.

Ben Francisco – I never understood the Francisco signing in the first place.  All it seemed to do was prevent a roster spot from going to Travis Snider.  Now with Snider up and starting every day in Left Field, the Jays already had a right handed hitting outfielder on their bench in Rajai Davis, so this is literally nothing. 

Carlos Perez – Perez is probably the best prospect that the Jays gave up in this deal, but I still don’t think that’s anything to worry about.  He was having a very solid year in Lansing this year, however its his 2^nd year at that level, and to me it really speaks to the club’s confidence in him, that even when AJ Jimenez went down for the year, they didn’t move Perez up a level.  Of all the team’s in the majors the Jays have by far the best catching depth in their system, so even after trading Perez away they still have uber-prospect Travis d’Arnaud ready to come up next year, and AJ Jimenez (if he can rebound from season ending surgery) as a developmental guy.  Not a major loss.

Joe Musgrove – One of the 7 picks in the first 78 in last year’s draft Musgrove is the type of prospect the Jays’ new regime love.  A young projectable high ceiling arm, but ones that come with a lot of risk.  In other system’s you might’ve seen Musgrove crack their top 10, but given how stacked the Jays system is (especially in terms of pitching), he was likely in the high 20s.  He’s a pitcher I really like, has a prototypical power pitcher frame (6’5 230), and an advanced breaking pitch for his age.  That being said, he’s still just 19 years old, and has just gotten to the Appy league last week.  Odds are by the time Musgrove gets to the majors we really wont be sweating it, because any number of Daniel Norris, Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, Justin Nicolino (and many others), will probably be populating the rotation.

Asher Wojciechowski – This is probably the most recognizable prospect moved today to most Blue Jays fans, for a couple reasons.  1) The guy has a sweet 4 syllable last name, & 2) He’s a former supplemental first round pick in 2010.  However, despite coming out of The Citadel with some promise, he was a massive disappointment last year, a though his numbers look better this year there are many reasons to believe they don’t show a lot of progression.  For one he’s repeating the level in the Florida State League, which is never a good sign, especially not for a college pitcher who you thought might move quickly, and also because his decrease in ERA has come from a DRAMATIC decrease in his HR/FB rate, which is generally luck driven.  His velocity has plateaued in the high 80s, and his slider doesn’t have a lot of bite, so long term he looks to be a bullpen arm at best.

David Rollins – Rollins has been putting up nice numbers this year in the stacked rotation that the Lansing Lugnuts have.  However he’s 22 at that level (as opposed to the big 3 in Lansing, who are all 20 or younger), is relatively small, and as a 24^th round pick, isn’t someone we’re likely to miss at all.  While you could dream on some of the other guys in this deal, that really wasn’t the case with Rollins.  He’s just a guy, nothing to see here.

To recap, the Jays gave up two major leaguers who had no role going forward, and have already been replaced on the roster, the #3 catcher in their organization, and two arms who probably ranked in the 20s, now that this year’s draft class has been added.  Its a lot of players, but overall there’s probably no one who we’re really likely to regret dealing in the long run.

Shifting our sights to the talent who are on their way into the major league roster.

J.A. Happ – First thing to note for any Jays fans not familiar with Mr. Happ, his name is pronounced “Jay”, not “J” “A”, no I don’t understand why either, but that’s just how it is.  Happ burst onto the scene in 2009 with the Phillies and got off to a blazing start finishing with a 12-4 record, and a BABIP aided 2.94 ERA.  That was never going to be sustainable, and might’ve gotten irrational Phillies fans hopes up a little too much.  However he has settled into a nice role as a back of the rotation starter, who’s strikeout rate has been trending up consistently the past few years.  He isn’t anything special, but he can help fill out the rotation for the rest of the year, and is under club control for another 2 years after this one.  If going forward our rotation recovers from the contagion of Tommy John surgery that’s been going around he could serve as a capable long man (and lefty out of the pen).

Brandon Lyon – Lyon is probably most notable for the contract he’s currently pitching on, that when former Astros GM Ed Wade gave it to him, was largely seen as one of the dumbest that off-season (due to the 3 year commitment to a middling relief pitcher).  However that contract isn’t a concern for the Jays, since its expiring at the end of the year.  All we really need to worry about is whether he’s better than Coco Cordero, and that really isn’t a hard task.  Since coming back from surgery that shut him down for most of last year his stuff seems to have taken a significant jump forward, as his 8.8 K/9 is the best he’s posted in hist career.  There is some concern that going from the NL Central, to the AL East might take some of the shine off him, but again, if Cordero is the bar, he can probably stumble and still go flying over.

David Carpenter – Carpenter is a 27 year old bullpen arm, who has fallen victim to the Luck Dragon this year.  His 6.07 ERA looks about as ugly as it gets, but that’s almost entirely based on his sky high .402 BABIP.  His underlying numbers are quite promising, a high strikeout rate is the type of guy who could settle into the major league pen allowing them to send guys like Sam Dyson, or Aaron Loup back to the minors to get a little more development time.

            All things told, this might be the most irrelevant 10 player trade in MLB history.  The Jays don’t lose very much out of their stacked farm system, and they get pieces to help them stay in the race this year, but also get two guys who we’ll have going forward in Carpenter & Happ.  The Jays have used pieces deep into their system to stay in the race this year, without giving up any of their top prospects.  All things told I’ll give this trade a thumbs up.