The Rejuvenation of Brett Cecil

By: Alex Hume

Even with the improvements to the Blue Jays lineup and rotation, the bullpen remained a primary area of concern for the Blue Jays heading into the season in which they were attempting to break their 19-year playoff drought.  However, despite the improvements, the lineup and rotation have been wracked with injuries and inconsistency, while the bullpen has become a fixture.  Early in the year Casey Janssen was the model of dominance and was one of the top three relievers in baseball.  However, over the last six weeks, while Janssen has regressed from superhuman to merely very good, the bespectacled lefty named Brett Cecil has become the stalwart.

After unintentionally walking the first batter he faced on May 31 against the Padres, Brett reeled off a steak of 25 straight batters retired that was broken up by another intentional walk, this time to Michael Cuddyer of the Colorado Rockies, and has since retired all five men he has faced since that point.  Cecil has not allowed a hit to any of the last 38 batters he has faced (a franchise record) and the ten plate appearances before that were also hitless.  In Cecil’s last 50 batters faced, he has given up no runs, two hits and three walks (two intentional).

Brett has discovered success out of the bullpen with increased velocity and a simplification of his repertoire.  Cecil has seen an uptick in velocity from 89.50 mph the last two years (2011-2012) to 93.10 mph this year.  Part of the increase can be attributed to a full-time move to the bullpen, but also a weighted ball program that Steve Delabar brought with him to the Blue Jays when he came over from Seattle at the 2012 trading deadline.  The program results in shoulder strengthening and velocity increase; and the Blue Jays see so much potential in it that they have signed Jamie Evans,  the originator, to an exclusive consulting contract as they try to implement it throughout the organization.  The increased velocity and shift in role has allowed Cecil to significantly modify his repertoire.  Cecil has historically thrown his four-seam fastball about 35 percent of the time, followed by his changeup, sinker and slider all between 14 and 19 percent.  He has rounded out his repertoire with a curve (9.90%) and a cutter (7.02%).  In 2013, without the need to be able to face hitters multiple times in a game, he has essentially pared his repertoire to four pitches, abandoning the slider entirely and throwing his second-most abundant pitch (sinker – 16.14%) 2.69 times as frequently as he throws his changeup (5.98%).  He has also abandoned the changeup to left-handed hitters only throwing it twice all year.  The curveball, which he used sparingly, has now become his primary pitch.  After generating 23.79% whiff/swing coming into the year (590 pitches), Cecil has generated 54.55% whiff/swing on the pitch this year.  The increased whiff rates have led to a sharp increase in strikeout rate to 30.7%, compared with 17.4% in his career.

Perhaps the biggest change in Cecil isn’t necessarily the whiff rates, but most importantly his ability to keep the ball on the ground.  After spending his career around 40% in terms of groundball rate, the number has jumped to 50.6% this year on the backs of three of his pitches, the aforementioned curve, his cutter (which he is working in over three times as frequently as in years past) and the sinker which are generating groundball rates of 57, 62 and 39% respectively.   Not only is Cecil keeping the ball on the ground, but the balls in the air are being turned into easy outs.  Cecil has a career-low line drive rate this year at 18.1% and career low flyball rate at 31.3%.  Only 3.6% of Cecil’s flyballs have left the yard (Vernon Wells got him on April 19...HA!), a rate that can’t be expected to continue and has helped to depress his 1.46 ERA and 1.94 FIP, but even normalizing to a his career average home run rate, it would produce an xFIP (using personal average instead of league average) of 2.85, which would rank 18^th in the league (instead of 10^th) and still, best on the Blue Jays staff.

The true talent level of Brett Cecil likely lies somewhat below the level to which he has performed so far this season, but tanks to proper role identification and the help of a training program, Cecil is no longer a lost cause, but a low-cost valuable asset, and one that Alex Anthopoulos and the Blue Jays should be proud to have.

Statistics from Fangraphs and Brooks Baseball

Alex is a fourth-year university student studying science.  He blogs about the Blue Jays at Hume's Jays Bullpen and blogged about fantasy baseball for a time at Bullpen Banter.  He can be reached on Twitter @AHume92.

What To Expect From Kyle Drabek In 2013 And Beyond

Guest Post by: FanDuel

With all that has happened involving the Toronto Blue Jays this offseason, it is easy to forget about one of the more hyped prospects the team still has under their control. The Blue Jays have certainly not given up on Kyle Drabek, and fans should also keep faith as he continues to recover from Tommy John surgery for the second time in his career.

Drabek has been a hyped prospect ever since the flame thrower hit high school in Texas. As the son of 1990 National League Cy Young Award winner Doug Drabek, people knew he was destined for big things. The Phillies took him in the first round of the 2006 draft, but the Blue Jays acquired him as one of the major pieces in the Roy Halladay trade 3 years later. Toronto fans anxiously awaited his debut in 2010, but since then, he has not done a lot to get the fans too excited.

Going 8-15 with a 4.94 xFIP, it's his control and lack of strikeouts that have done him in. His K/9 of 5.93 and his BB/9 of 5.77 are two horrific numbers, and his command needs to be worked on big time. With the Jays big acquisitions this winter filling out the starting rotation, does the righty Drabek hold any value to the Jays?

With newcomers R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson and Mark Buerhle joining forces with Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero, it appears as though the Blue Jays have a set starting rotation that could be one of the best in the league barring injury for opening day. However, Drabek won’t be back until the middle of the summer at the earliest, so it is all about where he is then. His plus stuff, past arm issues and build all seem to indicate that his future could be in the bullpen, and because of that he will not feature highly in many 2013 fantasy baseball drafts.

At 25 years old, Toronto might not be ready to change him just yet, but Drabek seems like he could develop into a nice closer or top reliever. He has a fastball that can sit in the mid-90s, and he can compliment it with three other solid pitches. Perhaps ditching the curveball and sticking with the cutter would help him cut down on walks if he moved to the bullpen.

It's a long shot that Drabek, coming off of his second Tommy John surgery will be a valuable starter in major league baseball. But, if the Jays can fix his control issues, he could develop into a top tier reliever who sits hitters down like he did as a starter in the minor leagues!

Fans might be fed up with the lack of production from Drabek so far in his career, but he has the track record in the minors and a solid blood line to make things work when he is healthy. Any type of positive production from him in 2013 would be great, although hopefully he just gets fully healthy first.

Jeremy Jeffress' Future in Toronto,Featuring an Interview with His Agent

Last Thursday, the day Alex Anthopolous gave out the longest and largest guaranteed Free Agent contract in his tenure as GM to Maicer Izturis (doesn't seem like so much now, does it), and he also acquired RHP Jeremy Jeffress from the Royals for cash. His agent, Joshua Kusnick contacted me, and I ended up having the opportunity to talk to and interview him last Friday (as did BlueBirdBanter, so check out their interview as well), and wanted to share it with you guys. I'm also going to be writing a little bit about what he said, so it wont just be transcript like what was done at BBB(I believe the Fan590 also conducted one, but I'm not sure about that). I haven't had time to write something up before this, because I was busy over the weekend, and then the Jays became contenders and such, so that's why it took so long to get this posted.

As you all probably know by now, Jeremy was caught 3 times while in the minors for marijuana, resulting in 2 suspensions. I asked Joshua if it is still a concern that Jeremy might start using again, and he said...

"We aren't worried.He is way past that, and now that he is on the MLB roster, he cannot get suspended for using(he later clarified saying that it is a nice thing to have to fall back on in case of a relapse, but he won't do it again just because he cannot get in trouble for it). Jeremy is regularly tested, and thank God, he has beaten the issue, and hopefully will continue on this track."

Well that sounds good. He has a reason not to do it because of the regular testing he receives, so I'd be shocked if Jeremy doesn't stay clean. And, if Jeremy is clean, the greater the chance of him becoming a star reliever for the Jays becomes. Then, about the control issues Jeremy has had, Joshua told me some intriguing stuff.

"He has definitely had control issues throughout his career. But, he has been a thrower for most of that career. Now, he learning to pitch. He is maturing, and by maturing, he is getting his command in check. Jeremy is learning that if he slows down his pitches a little bit, he can have that control that he needs. The Blue Jays have done this with Brandon Morrow, Sergio Santos, and many others, so hopefully it will work with Jeremy."

Everything Joshua said there is correct, as Jeremy's velocity dropped 2.2 MPH(4-seamer) from 2011 to 2012. So, if you thought Jeremy's arm wearing out is the issue in his decreased velocity, it isn't apparently. This is awesome news, as we have seen the effects of maturity on Brandon Morrow, and I'm sure Jeremy will be able to follow in Brandon's, and so many other flamethrower's footsteps. Next up, Jeremy seems pretty psyched to be joining the Jays...

"He's excited to be a Blue Jays. Toronto is close to his home and his family in Virginia. Being in the AL East, his family will be able to watch him pitch a lot because the Jays play Baltimore,New York and Boston, so much, so he is happy about that."

Okay. Jeremy also told BBB that he has a lot of friends on the Jays, so that can't be a bad thing. Hopefully playing for the Jays is his "Dream Job".  And, on to what will be the actual lengthy part of this article...

"I heard the number was higher than $20,000(the amount of cash the Jays paid to the Royals for Jeremy). I heard it was more in the $200,000 range. I'm friends with Andrew Tinnish(Jays AGM), Jay Sartori(another Jays AGM), and they are ecstatic about this trade. I have a good relationship with the Jays. David Herndon was claimed by the Jays a couple of weeks ago, and I talked with them about Jeremy Jeffress. I don't think it really influenced them to make this trade, but who knows. Herndon was going to be in AAA for the Jays, but the Yankees want him in the MLB. I expect Jeremy to be on the MLB roster in April, because he is out of options, and because the potential that he possesses."

The Jays bullpen is pretty packed, and now that it seems like Darren Oliver will be returning, there isn't much room for Jeremy. The bullpen currently projects to be: Casey Janssen,Sergio Santos, Brad Lincoln, Steve Delabar, Darren Oliver, Esmil Rogers, and Brett Cecil. I want to put Aaron Loup there, but because he has options, I don't think he gets put on the team, because Rogers and Cecil both are out of options. That doesn't leave a lot of room for Jeffress, and unless a trade is made, I find it hard to believe that all 3 of Rogers,Cecil, and Jeffress will be put on the 25 man roster.  But, saying that, I fully expect a trade to be made, and come March, I highly doubt Casey Janssen is on this team. His value is at the highest it'll ever be, and packaging him with JPA will bring back the Jays something nice.

Hope you enjoyed. Leave your comments below.

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