It's Time for a Catching Change

J.P. Arencibia is in the midst of his worse season in the big leagues. He is striking out in over 32% of his  plate appearances, and only walking in 2.6% of his PA's. The catcher with the marketable smile has become a free swinging monster who's great power(for a catcher) can't even make up for his lack of any other skills. His stats won't do for a team trying to get back into the playoff race, and I believe it's time to make a change at the catcher position. It's time the Blue Jays option J.P Arencibia down to AAA, and name Josh Thole the starting catcher. Here are my reasons:

He isn't Even Good For A Catcher
A classic argument that is used by JPA apologists is that for a catcher, JP's numbers aren't that bad. The problem with that statement is that it's false. Andrew Stoeten touched on this subject at drunkjaysfans.com yesterday, so I don't want to go so in depth about it. Among the 13 qualified catchers in baseball, JPA is 12th in WAR, 12th in wRC+, 12th in wOBA, 1st in K%, and last in BB%. The only thing JP does well in is that he is powerful;His .210 ISO is best among those 13 qualified catchers. So, what exactly does JP have to offer other than power? Nothing. He needs to go.

Josh Thole is Better
It's hard for people to admit, but Josh Thole is better than J.P. Yes, both Thole and Arencibia's defense is horrible, but there is definitely a gap in their offensive production. If you discount 2012 for Thole, who suffered from lingering concussion problems all year, it becomes obvious how much better than JP he is. From 2009-2011, Thole put up a .350 OBP, and although I don't have the exact number for what his wRC+ was in that span, it was around 96 or 97. That is below league average, although not for a catcher. JP's wRC+ in 2011-2012 was somewhere around 90 or 91, but there is no reason to believe he can produce at that level again. His ISO is still around the same as it has been every year in his career, but his K% and BB% are at career highs(or low I guess for BB%). That has caused a major decrease in his already horrid wOBA, which explains why he has a 75 wRC+  this season. JP's problems have been caused by his complete lack of plate discipline. The problem is that JP continues to do nothing about it, and actually treats it like a joke, tweeting about the walk he takes once every couple of weeks. If you are going to argue that Thole isn't an upgrade, you are wrong. In a lineup desperate for OBP, Thole needs to be playing, even if he is in the 8 or 9 spot in the lineup, because he could get on base at a mark that JP will never be able to achieve in his career.

Josh Thole Just Needs to be a Stop-Gap
When the Blue Jays traded away 2 of their top 3 catching prospects in this past year(Carlos Perez to Houston and Travis d'Arnaud to New York), fans thought that we will be stuck with JP forever. We won't be. Josh Thole only needs to start and be better than JP is for a year or so. The reason? A.J. Jimenez.

Jimenez was rated the Jays #8 prospect by our staff this past offseason, and he is now back playing full

Jimenez is the last of the 4 big
catching prospects left in the system.

time in New Hampshire after some elbow problems and surgery that he has had for a year. Jimenez' greatest skill is his defense, which scouts and coaches alike are saying is unbelievable. Defense from a catcher is nice, but Jimenez is no slouch on offense as well. His bat has been getting better every year, and Steamer Projections(published on FanGraphs) already has him able to post a 78 wRC+ in the majors. That isn't good, but it is better than JP. A.J also doesn't strike out a ton like JP does, and for the past few seasons, his K% has been declining, now sitting in the low teens. He doesn't take a lot of walks, but as long as he isn't striking out 30% of the time, I'm fine with that. A.J is already on the 40-man, and although he probably won't be ready to be a major league catcher in April 2014, June is realistic. He should finish this year in AA, get a month of big league action this September, and will likely get a couple of months of polishing down in Buffalo next year.

After reading my arguments, I hope you are able to see that JP needs to be sent down, or at least benched for a while, so he understand that his complete lack of plate discipline will not be tolerated. He has become lazy and just swings at everything, and needs to realize that there are options in the Jays organization that are better than he is, and one is just sitting on the bench. Hopefully that will make him understand that he needs to work on his approach.

A.J. Jimenez is a year away from being ready, but the decision is quite simple. A.J's offense and defense make him a 2 WAR player already in the big leagues, and I much rather have a 2 WAR player for $500K like AJJ will be making next year, than a 0(or possibly negative) WAR player making $1MM+ in 2014. JP has ran out of time to prove himself, and his future in Toronto shouldn't be long.

I'm sure there are plenty of you reading this who disagree with me, so please comment, and we'll discuss this even more.

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Thoughts From Spring Training: Day 1

The jerk sitting all by himself...

The Boston Red Sox beat the Blue Jays 4-2 today in John Farrell's return to Toronto, or Dunedin I guess. I was at the game today, my first of three this spring training, and, as expected, it was awesome. My seats are 4 or 5 rows up right behind home plate, so I'm able to see the strike zone beautifully. Some thoughts and pictures from today's game...

 On R.A Dickey...

Dickey, JPA, and Pete Walker before the game.

Dickey was pretty obviously just getting a feel for his knuckler today, sitting at 73-74 MPH on it, and maxing out at 75 MPH. Those readings are from the stadium radar gun, so they might be a couple ticks off. It didn't have as much movement as it will have during the regular season, which was the primary reason he got hit hard a few times today. The knuckeball was left up a couple times, and Red Sox batters took advantage. Towards the end of his outing, he threw one pitch around 58 MPH if I remember correctly, and got the batter(Pedro Ciraco) to roll over it into a double play. That particular pitch had a ton of movement on it, and it was great to see. The results might not have been great, but for his first spring outing, Dickey showed great signs today.

On JPA...
He looked pretty solid behind the plate catching Dickey. Only had one passed ball in his 2 innings, so not so bad. He won't be catching Dickey once the regular season comes, but practice can't hurt him. Of course today's knuckle ball is easier to catch than the ones that should be coming in Dickey's upcoming starts because it didn't move so much.

On the Dominican Four...
Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion represent the best top 4 hitters in baseball, and boy did they look good today.

        Reyes looked comfortable at the plate, hitting a hard ground ball that got through the hole between short and third, and before that, hustling and scoring from first on Melky's third inning double. His base running was phenomenal, something we didn't see a whole lot of last year thanks to Mr. Farrell.

Bautista's super high leg kick.

        Melky had two solid hits, both of them doubles, and even more important than that, he seemed to wait for the pitches he wanted. Other's were chasing pitches, but he was able to wait for his pitch, and drive it...Twice. His defense was also solid, as he made a great throw to hold a runner at second.

         Joey Bats almost hit another home run today, smoking a ball to straight away centre field, before it was run down at around the 390 mark. Those line drives are great to see from him. His eye was also in mid-season form, something we can always count on from Jose.

         Edwin did hit one out of the park today, like really far out of the park. As soon as it hit the bat the entire stadium knew it was gone, and everybody erupted into applause. EE was chasing a bit early on, but was able to stay back on some pitches, which led to his monster shot to left field.

On Josh Johnson....

JJ looked really good today, changing speeds and keeping hitters off balance. There was a moment where he started a hitter of with a 92 MPH fastball(likely a bit more because of the radar guns), then dropped a 75 MPH curve on him(which he is said to be working on), and then followed that up with some more heat. The hitter was absolutely fooled, and if JJ can keep on changing speeds and locations like he did today, he is going to end up being the best pitcher on this staff by years end. He was awesome today.

On Sean Nolin and John Stilson...

Nolin about to release one of his many
impressive pitches on the day.

Nolin was the guy who impressed me the most today, even though his stat line doesn't show it. He was painting corners with ease, and aside from a few mistakes which will happen in spring training, he looked great, It's no wonder AA loves him so much. I wouldn't be surprised if he hopped right over J.A Happ on the depth chart by the All-Star break. He's got great stuff. Mid-rotation guy for sure.

Stilson looked good, not great, just good. He had semi-good command of his stuff, but that lack of a true third pitch is going to put him in the bullpen in the near future. Could make for a great late inning guy. He definitely has the confidence and cockiness for a big leaguer :)

On Mark DeRosa...
Okay. I know I sort of love DeRosa because I predicted his signing and all, but once again today, he hit lefties, without his bones breaking. Gibbons will take notice to this. He'll end up being Lind's platoon partner if he doesn't get injured. He has always been a good lefty hitter, and it'll be nice for him to make a solid contribution to this team.

And some more pictures...

Former Jay Lyle Overbay in the Boston on-deck circle.

Reyes stretching before the game.

Lawrie about to swing and miss.

I hope you enjoyed. Probably won't be posting again tomorrow night, but I'll try.

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Hot Commodity in Abundance

           The Blue Jays 40-man roster, once the trade is approved, will consist of 4 catchers that arguably could all be on major league rosters. J.P. Arencibia, John Buck, and young, highly touted prospect, Travis d’Arnaud should be starters in professional baseball, although some might argue Travis belongs in AAA because of his injury last year. Bobby Wilson is also on the 40-man, but he’s an above average fielding catcher who hasn’t been able to establish his bat at the major league level. Nevertheless, Wilson is a legitimate back up who can catch a game per week to give the starter a rest, without a brutal falloff. A major league club truly only needs 2 catchers, and to be frank, a major league club would have to be completely ignorant to keep more than 2 because of the value they hold caused by the rarity of legitimately good catchers.

            With that being said, Alex Anthopoulos will probably take calls from many teams interested in acquiring a major league catcher. The teams interested:

Texas Rangers:

             Unlike the other possible trading partners, the Rangers did have a better than league average catcher in 2012, but with Mike Napoli most likely moving out of town, the Texas Rangers will be in the market for a catcher.

            The Rangers will probably find Arencibia the most intriguing of the Blue Jays catchers, and not because they’re looking for the best catcher from Toronto—that’d be Travis D’arnaud. If the Rangers are at all interested in acquiring Travis from the Blue Jays, it would cost them Jurickson Profar. Jurickson is an untouchable for Texas, so the idea of trading for D’arnaud seems infeasible. I also don’t foresee Texas “cheeping out” and acquiring Buck rather than Arencibia because Buck has been terribly inconsistent, and less than lackluster since his move from Toronto after the 2010 season.

Conclusion:

            The Blue Jays would want Matt Harrison from Texas in exchange for Arencibia, but a Holland-Arencibia swap seems more likely.

New York Mets

            The Major League average SLG% out of the catcher position last year was .400, and the second worst percentage from catchers on a team came from the Rays at .322. And then there is the Mets… their catchers slugged to a TOTAL of .285, and played to a negative WAR. With no catcher-in-waiting in the system, you have to believe the Mets will make a call to the Alex and the Blue Jays with regards to a catcher.

            With the position the Mets are in, not quite ready to contend, you would believe they’d be willing to take a risk on John Buck—hoping he returns to 2010 form. Or are the Mets tired of pitiful performance from the position and ready to make a big statement. I don’t know if Alex is willing to part ways with D’arnaud to the Mets, but if he is it’d take at least Zack Wheeler, and would somehow involve Ike Davis coming back as well. Although Buck would be worth a shot, I think that just like the Rangers, the Mets would show the most interest in Arencibia, because you know what you’re getting: a 20 HR guy with a mid-low .200’s batting average, and he’d come much cheaper than D’arnaud.

Conclusion:

            Jonathon Niese would be considered fair value for Arencibia, but the Mets may not want to trade away their recently signed starter. A deal could ultimately be formed around a Davis-Arencibia swap.   

Pittsburgh Pirates:

          Although they have a prospect by the name of Wyatt Mathisen they still need a catcher if they seriously want to contend, because Mathisen is a long way away from the Majors and may never make it as a catcher, or at all. The Pirates catchers in 2012 were not good, which was to be expected from them.

            The Pirates have been completely reluctant to trade Jameson Taillon or Gerrit Cole from day one. With that being said, d’Arnaud is out of the question. The last thing the Pirates would want is to acquire a catcher, only for him to perform no better than their catchers of 2012, saying that I don’t see them being interested in Buck. Arencibia is a different story, although Pittsburgh doesn’t match up perfectly, Pittsburgh does have one player with similar value that would upgrade a position that was already upgraded this offseason—twice. Although the Blue Jays have already acquired Emilio Bonifacio and Maicer Izturis this fall, adding a legitimate starting second baseman that could be an allstar, would not only make Toronto's bench very good, it would add depth to the line up.  

Conclusion:

            With the emergence of Brock Holt at second base, a traded based upon Neil Walker and J.P Arencibia seems feasible.

Who do you think should be traded?Leave your comments below.

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The Great Blue Jays Catcher Conundrum

Unfortunately for him, JPA's power
is his only valuable asset.

I have spent countless tweets debating this issue. I have even been blocked by a couple of people(although 1 has unblocked me after a couple of months) because of their sincere love for JPA, and my countless arguments against him. It is a great problem to have but unfortunately, it has divided Jays Nation, and has probably kept Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos up countless nights(although I imagine his newborn son has as well). What to do with the Blue Jays catching situation in 2013 and beyond? As we all know, J.P. Arencibia has clearly shown that he will hit you 20+ home runs a year, but he doesn't get on base. Travis d'Arnaud has not shown anything in the Majors, but his minor league numbers are better than JPA's, and he projects to be better. Anyways, I thought I would put all my arguments for my side(Travis d'Arnaud starting) down into a post so the people who disagree with me can share their thoughts in the comment section, and we could debate some more.

When told JPA has proven he can be an everyday Catcher, and d'Arnaud has not:
This is 100% the most valid argument that anybody can make on the JPA side. JP is an everyday catcher, but he isn't a "Division 1" catcher. He isn't Joe Mauer, Yadier Molina or Buster Posey, not that I'm saying Travis is, but d'Arnaud has a better chance to become one of those type of players because he can combine his power(which is basically the same as JP's) with the ability to get on base.

When told JPA is very good because he gets RBI's and deserves to be the starter because of that:
Call me when RBI's mean something and aren't dependant on your teammates and luck.

When told TDA should play 1st in 2013 and JPA should Catch:
Sal Fasano has said in the past that Travis d'Arnaud is one of the best defensive catchers he has seen. Travis is only 23, which means he has a ton of room, as does JP. But if you combine d'Arnaud's offense with his stellar defense, he has a chance to be an all-star for a long time in the AL.I'm not advocating a scenario where JP is on this team as well as TDA, but if somebody moves to 1st, it should be JP. Travis' defense is better obviously, and JP, as somebody who cares about winning, should be fine with the switch to 1st.

When told JP could play 1st, and d'Arnaud  could play catcher:
If no move is made in the off-season to acquire a 1B/DH, then I rather see Adam Lind play the position(DH) next season.  The reason for this being that the Jays need a pitcher, and JP can get you that, whereas Adam Lind cannot. Hopefully this doesn't need to be discussed anymore because AA brings in a player that plays 1B/DH...David Ortiz.


When told you can't get rid of JP because he cares too much about this team:
If a 3rd year player is upset about moving positions, and has a bad attitude about it, then I don't want him on my team. If he really cares about the team, he would do what's best for the team as a whole, which is having Travis d'Arnaud calling games and blocking balls behind the dish. The whole perception is that you can't move JP's position because he is older, and therefore deserves the respect of having a set position of defense. But if he really "cared" about this team like everybody says he does, he shouldn't have a problem with switching positions. So, he clearly doesn't "care" about this team so much that you can't trade him for a valuable piece.

Unlike his competition, Travis has more
 than 1 tool, 4 to be exact( Contact,Power,Arm,Glove).

When told JP did better in AAA, so expecting more from TDA is ludicrous:
Problem is, JP did not. Comparing JP's second year in Vegas and Travis' 1st year in AAA is like comparing apples and oranges. It is so much easier to succeed in the Minors when repeating a level(as shown by Asher Wojo.... this year before being traded), and that is why JPA had a "better" year than Travis at AAA. If you compare JP's 1st year and TDA's 1st year in AAA, it is ridiculous how much better d'Arnaud was. So, that argument is wrong. Oh, and by the way, Travis' 1st year at AAA, is better than JP's  2nd year according to wOBA and wRC+(JP .412/143 TDA .414/147).

When told trading JP would be regretted when d'Arnaud fails to meet expectations:
Travis d'Arnaud doesn't even need to have a wRC+ of 91(JPA's career #) next season to be worth more than JP. If his offense isn't what it is supposed to be, and it fails miserably, it can't be much worse than what JPA's is, and his defense, which won't change because of the league he is in, is still better than JP's.

I say package JP with some other pieces, and get a SP. That is what this team needs the most, and Travis d'Arnaud at his worst will likely produce overall more than JP does. Hand him the reins in April of 2013, and don't look back. They are both very nice guys, but when it comes down to winning, production is the only thing that matters.

Anyways, if you have any other points in favour of JPA that I did not answer, please leave them in the comment section below.

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Jays Extend Their Starting Catcher

Mathis catching in Tropicana Field
 last week vs. the Rays.

That headline got you excited, didn't it? Too bad the Jays starting catcher right now is Jeff Mathis. The Blue Jays announced earlier this evening that they had signed Mathis to a 2-year $3 million contract with an Anthoption(Club Option) in 2015 for $1.5 million. This is still a pretty big move because it gives us a whole lot of possible options to think about for the catching jobs in 2013. Since Mathis' job is now set in stone, we can assume one of JP Arencibia or Travis d'Arnaud will be moved this off-season. Here are a few possible situations next year when it comes to the backstops.
1. JPA Traded, d'Arnaud Starting, Mathis Backup
This seems like the most likely case as it improves the team all around and if JPA is packaged with one of the Lansing 3 and some fillers, he could bring back a pretty good pitcher. AA has said outright that he is going to acquire a pitcher or two this off-season, so that statement gives this possibility more steam than the others. The big question is whether or not the Blue Jays #1 prospect will be ready for 2013 because he tore his PCL this season, and has been shut down. But the latest we have heard about d'Arnaud is that he will make up for lost time playing in the Arizona Fall League later this year, and should be ready for April 2013.

2. JPA Starting Catcher, d'Arnaud Starting DH, Mathis Backup C
You don't like this. I don't like this. Rogers loves this! AA has been brainwashed to love it. Instead of spending money on David Ortiz or another DH, Rogers could conveniently pay those 4 players less than $3 million for 2013, and still think they get good production. AA said during tonight's game that this case has potential for next season, but I don't see it. My first problem with it is that JPA brings back a pitcher if traded, and Ortiz would love to play in Toronto with his best friend Jose Bautista, and another close friend, Edwin Encarnacion. My second problem is that if you do have these 3 catchers, why not have d'Arnaud,the better defender, play catcher, and JPA DH. You are getting the same offense, but improving the defense. Just makes more sense in my mind. What do you guys think?

3. JPA Starting, Mathis Backup, Travis d'Arnaud starting in AAA
Please no.

4.d'Arnaud Traded, JPA Starting, Mathis Backup
If it brings back Stephen Strasburg,Clayton Kershaw, or Felix Hernandez(Or other players of that caliber), then I'm fine with it. Otherwise, NO!(Mike Trout as well)

Well that basically sums them all up. If I missed any, I'm distracted by watching the Jays game right now, so it isn't my fault.

Which situation do you prefer? Leave a comment in the section below and we could discuss, I really want to know what others think about this.

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Blue Jays Mid-Season Grades: Part 5

Here is the 5th and final post from the Blue Jays Mid-Season report card. I had a blast writing it, and hope you guys enjoyed.

Drabek,center, shown leaving the game
 injured at the Rogers Centre on June 13th 

Kyle Drabek: D-

After a very disappointing 2011 season that saw Drabek sent down to AAA, Kyle started the 2012 season with a bang! In April it looked like he had solved all of his control issues, as he only walked 15 batters in 30 innings, while pitching to an outstanding ERA of 2.40. But when the calendar switched to May, Drabek reverted to his past ways, and his wheels fell off as he was walking almost 7 batters per 9IP until he was injured during his start on June 13^th. The base runners were a problem for Kyle as his ERA in that span was 6.31, and his total season ERA ballooned to 4.67. Kyle’s 2012 and likely 2013 seasons are finished as he had Tommy John Surgery last month. This is Kyle’s second TJ procedure, and it would not surprise me if Kyle’s career as a starter is over, although I can see him being a late inning reliever if he finds his control once again.

Francisco Cordero: D-

Getting booed at home takes a lot of skill, or lack thereof. Francisco Cordero hasn’t pitched all that bad this season. He has allowed plenty of ground balls, yet for some reason, whenever Coco pitches, he gives up runs, and loses the game for the Jays.  His BABIP is a ridiculously unsustainable .376, which is why I believe he still has a job. AA has to believe that eventually his numbers will drop, because that BABIP is just so outrageously high. I gave him a D- instead of a F because of that BABIP, and I do expect him to start getting outs, like he did from May 12^th to June 29^th, when he pitched to a 1.74 ERA in 20.2 innings.

Adam Lind: D-

Adam Lind looks very good right now! Since returning to the majors on June 25^th, Lind has an OBP of .317(not good, but not so bad), but has hit 4 home runs in 38 at bats. But that isn’t even the most impressive thing about Lind since his return. He is hitting the ball the other way effortlessly, something that tells you Lind is on his game. We know the power is going to be there for Lind, but what the Jays need from him is to get on base more than 30% of the time, something he struggled with the past couple of seasons. If he can hit at a mark of about .265, and walk another 6% of the time, the team will be very happy with him, and so will I.  I could see his grade improving to a C- if he keeps up what he has been doing since coming back!

#FreeMathis

JP Arencibia: F

JP Arencibia has 13 home runs. He is so good! No. He isn’t. The guy has a .261 OBP. You should not be allowed on a major league roster with an OBP that low. He has a WAR of 0.2… In 265 plate appearances. His defense has been dreadful. His offense, aside from his power, has been even worse. Jeff Mathis has a 0.4 WAR in 75 PA. His defense is so much better than JPA’s, and his offense as actually been better. If I was John Farrell I would bench JPA for a few games, and have him work on taking pitches more. By taking pitches he will see more pitches, have better at bats, and actually be a serviceable catcher.

Eric Thames: F

Thames was sent down for a reason. He had a JPA like OBP of .288, and had a slugging percentage of .365(Ouch). His WAR was -0.8, a factor of both his atrocious defense, and his lackluster offense. I have nothing really left to say about him. He was really bad while in Toronto at all aspects of the game (except for his base running, which was amazing, but because his offence was so bad, it was hardly ever used), and he deserves to be in AAA. His numbers look good in AAA, but you never know if he has actually performed well because of the “PCL Factor”. Rajai Davis has been very good as his replacement, so I see no reason to rush him up here, and I believe Travis Snider has passed him on the depth chart once again!

Feel free to comment with grades of your own, tips and criticisms, and anything else you feel like saying on the comment section below.

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Minor League Update: Catchers

#44 J.P Arencibia,Las Vegas 51's(AAA):In 26 games he is batting .238/.306/.366 with 4 doubles,3 HR's, and 12 RBI's. Arencibia has been in a slump lately batting only .167 in the past 10 games.J.P will be called up to "The Show" if one of John Buck or Jose Molina get injured.If not he will be up with the club in September when the roster expands.

#8 Brian Jeroloman,New Hampshire Fisher Cats(AA): In 25 games this season he is batting .325/.455/.525 with 7 doubles,3 HR's and 14 RBI's. Jeroloman is known for his amazing defence but his bat is starting to come alive this season.He will likely end the season either starting in New Hampshire or in AAA Las Vegas.

#25 Travis d'Arnaud,Dunedin Blue Jays(A+):In 16 Games this season he is currently batting .328/.362/.547 with 5 doubles,3 HR's and 13 RBI's. Travis was picked up in the Roy Halladay trade with the Phillies this past December. d'Arnaud will most likely end his season with AA New Hampshire.

Stay tuned for the next Blue Jays off day,as we look into the Blue Jays farm system for great talent at the First base position.