It's Time for a Catching Change

J.P. Arencibia is in the midst of his worse season in the big leagues. He is striking out in over 32% of his  plate appearances, and only walking in 2.6% of his PA's. The catcher with the marketable smile has become a free swinging monster who's great power(for a catcher) can't even make up for his lack of any other skills. His stats won't do for a team trying to get back into the playoff race, and I believe it's time to make a change at the catcher position. It's time the Blue Jays option J.P Arencibia down to AAA, and name Josh Thole the starting catcher. Here are my reasons:

He isn't Even Good For A Catcher
A classic argument that is used by JPA apologists is that for a catcher, JP's numbers aren't that bad. The problem with that statement is that it's false. Andrew Stoeten touched on this subject at drunkjaysfans.com yesterday, so I don't want to go so in depth about it. Among the 13 qualified catchers in baseball, JPA is 12th in WAR, 12th in wRC+, 12th in wOBA, 1st in K%, and last in BB%. The only thing JP does well in is that he is powerful;His .210 ISO is best among those 13 qualified catchers. So, what exactly does JP have to offer other than power? Nothing. He needs to go.

Josh Thole is Better
It's hard for people to admit, but Josh Thole is better than J.P. Yes, both Thole and Arencibia's defense is horrible, but there is definitely a gap in their offensive production. If you discount 2012 for Thole, who suffered from lingering concussion problems all year, it becomes obvious how much better than JP he is. From 2009-2011, Thole put up a .350 OBP, and although I don't have the exact number for what his wRC+ was in that span, it was around 96 or 97. That is below league average, although not for a catcher. JP's wRC+ in 2011-2012 was somewhere around 90 or 91, but there is no reason to believe he can produce at that level again. His ISO is still around the same as it has been every year in his career, but his K% and BB% are at career highs(or low I guess for BB%). That has caused a major decrease in his already horrid wOBA, which explains why he has a 75 wRC+  this season. JP's problems have been caused by his complete lack of plate discipline. The problem is that JP continues to do nothing about it, and actually treats it like a joke, tweeting about the walk he takes once every couple of weeks. If you are going to argue that Thole isn't an upgrade, you are wrong. In a lineup desperate for OBP, Thole needs to be playing, even if he is in the 8 or 9 spot in the lineup, because he could get on base at a mark that JP will never be able to achieve in his career.

Josh Thole Just Needs to be a Stop-Gap
When the Blue Jays traded away 2 of their top 3 catching prospects in this past year(Carlos Perez to Houston and Travis d'Arnaud to New York), fans thought that we will be stuck with JP forever. We won't be. Josh Thole only needs to start and be better than JP is for a year or so. The reason? A.J. Jimenez.

Jimenez was rated the Jays #8 prospect by our staff this past offseason, and he is now back playing full

Jimenez is the last of the 4 big
catching prospects left in the system.

time in New Hampshire after some elbow problems and surgery that he has had for a year. Jimenez' greatest skill is his defense, which scouts and coaches alike are saying is unbelievable. Defense from a catcher is nice, but Jimenez is no slouch on offense as well. His bat has been getting better every year, and Steamer Projections(published on FanGraphs) already has him able to post a 78 wRC+ in the majors. That isn't good, but it is better than JP. A.J also doesn't strike out a ton like JP does, and for the past few seasons, his K% has been declining, now sitting in the low teens. He doesn't take a lot of walks, but as long as he isn't striking out 30% of the time, I'm fine with that. A.J is already on the 40-man, and although he probably won't be ready to be a major league catcher in April 2014, June is realistic. He should finish this year in AA, get a month of big league action this September, and will likely get a couple of months of polishing down in Buffalo next year.

After reading my arguments, I hope you are able to see that JP needs to be sent down, or at least benched for a while, so he understand that his complete lack of plate discipline will not be tolerated. He has become lazy and just swings at everything, and needs to realize that there are options in the Jays organization that are better than he is, and one is just sitting on the bench. Hopefully that will make him understand that he needs to work on his approach.

A.J. Jimenez is a year away from being ready, but the decision is quite simple. A.J's offense and defense make him a 2 WAR player already in the big leagues, and I much rather have a 2 WAR player for $500K like AJJ will be making next year, than a 0(or possibly negative) WAR player making $1MM+ in 2014. JP has ran out of time to prove himself, and his future in Toronto shouldn't be long.

I'm sure there are plenty of you reading this who disagree with me, so please comment, and we'll discuss this even more.

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Farm System Report: Dunedin Blue Jays (A)

By: Isaac Boloten
Sorry for this being two days late. But better late than never. Week 3 of the Farm System Report will feature the Dunedin Blue Jays. This team is very shallow. It has a few prospects, most notably Aaron Sanchez and A.J. Jimenez, but other than that it isn't all that deep. Let's start with overall team performance.

Dunedin Blue Jays, 18-11, 1st in Florida State League North Divison. 

Well, this team has played really well. It actually was surprising to me, looking at the roster as a whole. Offensively, the Blue Jays have been middle of the pack, not great in any category, but not awful. The pitching has carried the Blue Jays, leading the Florida State League in ERA and WHIP. I can't see them sustaining this pace, yet you never know.

I will now proceed to write about the following players: 

Aaron Sanchez, SP
Casey Lawrence, SP
Tyler Ybarra, RP
Jesse Hernandez, SP

AJ Jimenez, C
K.C. Hobson, 1B
Michael Crouse, OF



Aaron Sanchez, SP

2013 Season
Team	League	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GO/AO	AVG
DUN	FSL	1	1	3.07	6	6	0	0	0	29.1	18	12	10	0	9	28	2.39	.170

Why not start with the #1 prospect in all of the Blue Jays organization?  Sanchez and Roberto Osuna were really the only top prospects left from the offseason, although the system does have some depth. Sanchez has impressed so far. The K's are high, which is to be expected with the stuff Sanchez possesses pitching in the Florida State League. One thing that he has to work on is being efficient. Sanchez reached his pitch limit of 75 pitches on May 2 after just 3.2 innings. As he continues to grow, he will learn to be more of a pitcher, and less of a thrower. We can expect big things out of Sanchez. Jason Parks at Baseball Prospectus says that Sanchez could be a top 5 prospect in all of baseball next year.

Casey Lawrence, SP 

2013 Season
Team	League	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GO/AO	AVG
BUF	INT	0	1	11.25	1	1	0	0	0	4.0	10	6	5	0	2	3	1.00	.455
DUN	FSL	2	2	3.48	5	5	0	0	0	33.2	29	13	13	3	5	20	1.30	.236

Lawrence isn't all that much of a top prospect, but he is worth being written about simply because of the start he has gotten off to in 2013. He went through a 2 game stretch in which he pitched 17.2 Innings, throwing 9.2 innings in one of those games. Since then, it hasn't been as stellar. I have my doubts about Lawrence as a prospect, seeing as he doesn't strike out a lot of guys, and he's in the FSL at age 25...So he's not a prospect.

Tyler Ybarra, RP

2013 Season
Team	League	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GO/AO	AVG
DUN	FSL	0	0	5.40	3	0	0	0	0	5.0	4	3	3	0	2	5	0.67	.222

The lefty has been a bullpen pitcher from the start. His ERA doesn't look all that great in the small sample size of 7 innings, but he has worked a 2.49 FIP. Ybarra has never had an issue with striking batters out, doing that consistently in his 3 years in the Blue Jays organization. Because he is a bullpen arm, he may develop faster, and the Jays might be a little bit less careful with him. I wouldn't be surprised if he is in AAA by next year, and AA by the end of this year.

Jesse Hernandez, SP

2013 Season
Team	League	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GO/AO	AVG
DUN	FSL	2	3	3.00	7	7	0	0	0	39.0	31	13	13	2	17	27	1.24	.217

Hernandez has gotten off to a decent start this year, providing needed innings for the Dunedin pitching staff. Much like Lawrence, his inability to strike batters out on a consistent basis in high-A ball concerns me.  In this era, not many pitchers turn out to be MLB'ers if they can't strike out batters. Henderson Alvarez comes to mind, but at this point he is a 4th starter at best. The only way Hernandez can get around not striking out a lot of guys is inducing a lot of ground balls. Unfortunately, I don't have that data.


AJ Jimenez, C

2013 Season
Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
DUN	FSL	.375	5	16	4	6	1	0	1	5	10	1	3	0	0	.412	.625	1.037

In the smallest of sample sizes, Jimenez is hitting the ball very well in 2013. In his last full game, he was 3-4 with his 1 home run, and was the player of the game for Dunedin. Us Jays fans are praying that Jimenez is a "young Travis d'Arnaud." Jimenez hasn't done anything to prove that wrong, but he is taking his sweet time to develop, mainly because his 2012 was cut short by Tommy John Surgery. He did show what he could do though in 2011, with a .303/.353/.417 triple slash that year. Many are impressed with his eye at the plate, and how he has really cut down on his strikeouts (which is something Jays fans aren't used to at the catcher position.)  Jimenez is a prospect who didn't receive much praise last year due to his injury, but I am sure will shoot up the rankings by midseason. I am very high on this kid(OK, he's older than me). He left the game last night before receiving one at bat which he says was because of elbow pain. Hopefully just some scar tissue, and nothing more.

Michael Crouse, OF

2013 Season
Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
DUN	FSL	.357	4	14	1	5	3	0	0	2	8	2	5	1	1	.438	.571	1.009

I lied when I said Jimenez had the smallest of sample sizes. Crouse's 2013 sample size is microscopic. Despite being in the organization since 2008, the Canadian is still very raw. He has tools, but is not polished at all. Historically, he has had extremely high strikeout percentages, and an on base percentage below .300, which simply isn't going to cut it. He is known to steal bases, though. Profiles as a possible 4th outfielder.


K.C. Hobson, 1B

2013 Season
Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
DUN	FSL	.203	17	69	5	14	2	0	4	10	28	3	17	1	0	.233	.406	.639

Despite the power numbers being there, Hobson is off to a very slow start in 2013. He has struck out way too many times, and has yet to show any patience at the plate. This is odd, because historically, he hasn't had all that much trouble getting on base. Hopefully this isn't a sign of things to come.