What To Expect From Kyle Drabek In 2013 And Beyond

Guest Post by: FanDuel

With all that has happened involving the Toronto Blue Jays this offseason, it is easy to forget about one of the more hyped prospects the team still has under their control. The Blue Jays have certainly not given up on Kyle Drabek, and fans should also keep faith as he continues to recover from Tommy John surgery for the second time in his career.

Drabek has been a hyped prospect ever since the flame thrower hit high school in Texas. As the son of 1990 National League Cy Young Award winner Doug Drabek, people knew he was destined for big things. The Phillies took him in the first round of the 2006 draft, but the Blue Jays acquired him as one of the major pieces in the Roy Halladay trade 3 years later. Toronto fans anxiously awaited his debut in 2010, but since then, he has not done a lot to get the fans too excited.

Going 8-15 with a 4.94 xFIP, it's his control and lack of strikeouts that have done him in. His K/9 of 5.93 and his BB/9 of 5.77 are two horrific numbers, and his command needs to be worked on big time. With the Jays big acquisitions this winter filling out the starting rotation, does the righty Drabek hold any value to the Jays?

With newcomers R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson and Mark Buerhle joining forces with Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero, it appears as though the Blue Jays have a set starting rotation that could be one of the best in the league barring injury for opening day. However, Drabek won’t be back until the middle of the summer at the earliest, so it is all about where he is then. His plus stuff, past arm issues and build all seem to indicate that his future could be in the bullpen, and because of that he will not feature highly in many 2013 fantasy baseball drafts.

At 25 years old, Toronto might not be ready to change him just yet, but Drabek seems like he could develop into a nice closer or top reliever. He has a fastball that can sit in the mid-90s, and he can compliment it with three other solid pitches. Perhaps ditching the curveball and sticking with the cutter would help him cut down on walks if he moved to the bullpen.

It's a long shot that Drabek, coming off of his second Tommy John surgery will be a valuable starter in major league baseball. But, if the Jays can fix his control issues, he could develop into a top tier reliever who sits hitters down like he did as a starter in the minor leagues!

Fans might be fed up with the lack of production from Drabek so far in his career, but he has the track record in the minors and a solid blood line to make things work when he is healthy. Any type of positive production from him in 2013 would be great, although hopefully he just gets fully healthy first.

Blue Jays Mid-Season Grades: Part 5

Here is the 5th and final post from the Blue Jays Mid-Season report card. I had a blast writing it, and hope you guys enjoyed.

Drabek,center, shown leaving the game
 injured at the Rogers Centre on June 13th 

Kyle Drabek: D-

After a very disappointing 2011 season that saw Drabek sent down to AAA, Kyle started the 2012 season with a bang! In April it looked like he had solved all of his control issues, as he only walked 15 batters in 30 innings, while pitching to an outstanding ERA of 2.40. But when the calendar switched to May, Drabek reverted to his past ways, and his wheels fell off as he was walking almost 7 batters per 9IP until he was injured during his start on June 13^th. The base runners were a problem for Kyle as his ERA in that span was 6.31, and his total season ERA ballooned to 4.67. Kyle’s 2012 and likely 2013 seasons are finished as he had Tommy John Surgery last month. This is Kyle’s second TJ procedure, and it would not surprise me if Kyle’s career as a starter is over, although I can see him being a late inning reliever if he finds his control once again.

Francisco Cordero: D-

Getting booed at home takes a lot of skill, or lack thereof. Francisco Cordero hasn’t pitched all that bad this season. He has allowed plenty of ground balls, yet for some reason, whenever Coco pitches, he gives up runs, and loses the game for the Jays.  His BABIP is a ridiculously unsustainable .376, which is why I believe he still has a job. AA has to believe that eventually his numbers will drop, because that BABIP is just so outrageously high. I gave him a D- instead of a F because of that BABIP, and I do expect him to start getting outs, like he did from May 12^th to June 29^th, when he pitched to a 1.74 ERA in 20.2 innings.

Adam Lind: D-

Adam Lind looks very good right now! Since returning to the majors on June 25^th, Lind has an OBP of .317(not good, but not so bad), but has hit 4 home runs in 38 at bats. But that isn’t even the most impressive thing about Lind since his return. He is hitting the ball the other way effortlessly, something that tells you Lind is on his game. We know the power is going to be there for Lind, but what the Jays need from him is to get on base more than 30% of the time, something he struggled with the past couple of seasons. If he can hit at a mark of about .265, and walk another 6% of the time, the team will be very happy with him, and so will I.  I could see his grade improving to a C- if he keeps up what he has been doing since coming back!

#FreeMathis

JP Arencibia: F

JP Arencibia has 13 home runs. He is so good! No. He isn’t. The guy has a .261 OBP. You should not be allowed on a major league roster with an OBP that low. He has a WAR of 0.2… In 265 plate appearances. His defense has been dreadful. His offense, aside from his power, has been even worse. Jeff Mathis has a 0.4 WAR in 75 PA. His defense is so much better than JPA’s, and his offense as actually been better. If I was John Farrell I would bench JPA for a few games, and have him work on taking pitches more. By taking pitches he will see more pitches, have better at bats, and actually be a serviceable catcher.

Eric Thames: F

Thames was sent down for a reason. He had a JPA like OBP of .288, and had a slugging percentage of .365(Ouch). His WAR was -0.8, a factor of both his atrocious defense, and his lackluster offense. I have nothing really left to say about him. He was really bad while in Toronto at all aspects of the game (except for his base running, which was amazing, but because his offence was so bad, it was hardly ever used), and he deserves to be in AAA. His numbers look good in AAA, but you never know if he has actually performed well because of the “PCL Factor”. Rajai Davis has been very good as his replacement, so I see no reason to rush him up here, and I believe Travis Snider has passed him on the depth chart once again!

Feel free to comment with grades of your own, tips and criticisms, and anything else you feel like saying on the comment section below.

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Is the Blue Jays Pitching One of the Best in the League?

The main stream media has been writing articles about how good the Blue Jays starters have been this season, even though they haven't actually been that good. They have actually been quite bad. In this article, I'm going to take a look at some advanced metrics that prove that the Blue Jays defense has been responsible for the pitching success, not the actual pitchers.

As most of you know from John Lott's article in the National Post today, the Blue Jays have the best defense in the MLB. The Jays have saved 29 runs from there defense according to DRS (Defensive Runs saved). This is due to the amount of shifts that have worked for the Jays, and their range that has greatly improved with the addition of Brett Lawrie and others.

The Blue Jays starters ERA's is 3.55, good for 3rd best in the AL. That number is way below where it would be if the Jays defense wasn't so good. So, to determine how good the Blue Jays starters really are, we will look at FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), and BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). These are the ERA's, FIP's, and Opponents BABIP of the Blue Jays Starters this year. (No #5 starter)

Ricky Romero-3.64,4.03,.214
Brandon Morrow-2.38,4.32,.202
Henderson Alvarez-2.83,5.21,.200
Kyle Drabek-3.34,5.30,.263

As you can see, their ERA's are very low, but once you get rid of the contribution of the fielders (FIP), those numbers are very high. Morrow,Alvarez, and Drabek all have significantly below average FIP's, and Romero's is only a tad below average. If Ricky is going to be your #1 pitcher, then he needs to be your best pitcher, and his numbers so far are pretty disappointing. All of those pitchers have insanely low BABIP's, which means the batters are very unlucky, or the Blue Jays fielding has been phenomenal. Obviously, its the second option.

So, instead of giving credit to the Blue Jays Pitchers for their low numbers, give the credit to their defenders of the likes like Mr.Lawrie,Mr.Escobar, and Mr. Johnson. Hopefully, later this season, the two sides (Pitching and Defense) can both be leading the league, and the Jays will be in the post-season for the first time since 1993.

Feel free to leave your comments below.

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The Future is Ready,Home Run Streak To 15

On Sunday afternoon the Blue Jays did something this city has been waiting for since the beginning of the season.Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos called up RHP Kyle Drabek from AA New Hampshire. Drabek was the number 1 prospect in the Roy Halladay trade and was named Eastern League Pitcher of the year. Drabek was 14-6 with a 2.94 era as he led the Fisher Cats to the playoffs. Drabek also through a no-hitter this year in AA.

Just a few minutes ago Edwin Encarnacion hit a home run to extend the Blue Jays home run streak to 15 straight games. That is the best active streak in the MLB now and better then the 13 game they had earlier this season,which was the Jays previous best.

Bill James invented a formula to calculate how many wins a team will have that season.Using that formula the Blue Jays should have 73 wins as of last night,compared to the 73 they did have last night. At the end of the season if the Jays score and let in the same amount of runs as they are right now they should have 83 wins at seasons end.

Don`t forget to vote for Vernon Wells as the 5 tool player,and for the Roberto Clemente award.Also vote for the late Tom Cheek to win the Ford C. Frick award.