Will the Jays Experience a Defensive Drop Off in 2013?

In the past two months, Alex Anthopoulos has turned the Blue Jays into a World Series favourite by making a couple of Free Agents signings (Maicer Izturis and Melky Cabrera), acquiring virtually every good player on the Marlins except for Giancarlo Stanton, and trading for the reigning National League CY Young Winner in R.A. Dickey. The club has drastically improved (on paper at least) on offense and in the starting rotation, but how they will fare defensively (again, on paper), is still a question mark.

Using the metric of Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), the Jays, along with the Atlanta Braves were the best fielding team in Major League Baseball (according to the data in this ActaSports article). Led by Brett Lawrie, whom scouts and prospect writers said was “destined for a corner outfield spot”; the Jays saved 70 runs while on defense. They did this using shifts created by now departed infield/3^rd base coach Brian Butterfield, and subsequently also led the league in DRS by shifts, saving 12 this past season.  By just using the info given above, you likely think that the Blue Jays defense might take a little hit in 2012 because Butterfield is no longer at the helm of the infield defense, but not undergo such a drastic change. That’s not true. Here are some charts to take a look at.

Most of the players above had career years defensively

in 2012, something sure to change in 2013.

Projections were made using weighted averages of the players

 last 3 seasons performance, and then multiplied to give a 1400 innings sample.



What you just saw is a chart of the qualified players in 2012 on the Blue Jays, and the projected starters (Izturis and Bonifacio as a platoon for 2B) for 2013. The total DRS for the Blue Jays in 2012 was 70, which was so high due to abnormally good performance’s from most of the team, and, well, Brett Lawrie and Yunel Escobar. Of the qualified players shown in the 2012 chart, their total DRS was 59. We know that the total team DRS was 70 in 2012.So, given the addition of Mark Buehrle to the rotation, who is known for his stellar defense, and adding all the other members of the rotation and bench players, we can assume that the final number in 2013 will be around +10. A significant drop from the leage leading mark posted a few months ago.

The departure of Yunel Escobar (+15), Jeff Mathis (+5), and Kelly Johnson (+5), will hurt a lot, and so will the regression back to the mean for players like JP Arencibia, Colby Rasmus, and Edwin Encarnacion. Then, once you factor in that Brett Lawrie’s projected DRS of 36 is completely unrealistic due to it being skewed by the small sample size he produced in 2011 (+16 in less than 50 games), the 2013 number drops even more. Things aren’t looking too good…

With Escobar and Johnson leaving, the pitcher who will suffer the most is Ricky Romero, who is a true ground ball pitcher, with a career average GB% of 54%. Just another reason why it will be hard for him to get back to being a number 3 pitcher this season.

Of course, this is all on paper. Some players will outperform their projections, while others will fail to reach their projections. This is all before the season, and you can never accurately project baseball; it’s just such a weird game. It is going to be a very fun year to watch the Jays as they should once again be a force offensively and for the first time in a few years, they, barring injuries, should also have a fantastic pitching staff. But, their defense projects to be much, much worse than in 2012, especially at shortstop, where we’ve had the privilege to watch one of the best in the game in Yunel Escobar for the past few years, and now we’ll have to suffer through Jose Reyes manning the shortstop position for the foreseeable future. 

How do you think the 2013 Jays defense will perform? Let us know in the comment section below.

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The Trade is Official!

Bud Selig has, after 6 days(although he only received the paperwork on Friday) has approved the mega-deal between the Jays and Marlins that sends All Stars Josh Johnson,Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, John Buck,speedster IF/OF Emilio Bonifacio, and an undisclosed amount of cash(last we heard it was $8million) to the Jays! Going to the Marlins in the trade are Major Leaguers Yunel Escobar, Jeff Mathis, and Henderson Alvarez along with prospects Adeiny Hechavarria, Jake Marisnick, Anthony DeSclafini, and Justin Nicolino. I have nothing really to say other than "RBI's for JOSE BAUTISTA"...cause you know, with Reyes and Melky in front of him, he will lead the league in that meaningless stat, and stop Miguel Cabrera from winning the triple crown again!!!

In other news, Manny Acta is going to be working in TV next year, and they haven't even contacted him, so cross him off the list.

Who do you want to be manager? Leave your comments below.

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Will Alex Give Towers a Call?

            When the majority of you saw this you either thought: Who’s Towers,or that this is just another article about how the Blue Jays should acquire Justin Upton. Well, I hate to break it to you, but those are both wrong. I'm talking about Kevin Towers, GM of the Arizona Diamondbacks

            Although Justin Upton would be a superb acquisition by Alex Anthopoulos, he’s not the first name I’d ask about if I was Alex—it’d be Trevor Bauer. Arizona’s front office and Bauer’s relationship has said to be thinning with Bauer’s unwillingness to change his routines. Does this sound familiar to you? Maybe Yunel Escobar and Colby Rasmus’ names will help you remember that this situation Arizona is in fits right into Alex’s trading niche. Anthopoulos loves to buy low on players that have had problems elsewhere and bring them into, what seems like, a very player friendly atmosphere in Toronto.

            So why exactly would Alex be interested in an unproven pitcher that put up a ERA of 6.06 in 4 major league starts last year, when there are proven pitchers on the free agent market that wouldn’t cost current players or prospects? Because this is Trevor Bauer and he could end up being a front-line starter, some could even push for “ace” potential. He has done nothing but succeed in the minors in 2012, even in the PCL where he put up an ERA of 2.85 and a K/9 ratio of 10.6 in 14 starts, now that’s promise. And let us not forget that he is still only 21 years of age.

            I feel that Bauer could most likely step into a 2013 middle-to-back-end rotation spot, so there is no question that an acquisition of Bauer would fill a hole. It would cost Alex, but wouldn’t create any new holes needed to be filled later because of what Arizona needs. A trade involving Trevor Bauer would cost nothing less than a major league short stop and a promising pitcher going back in return. The Blue Jays have depth in both positions, so it’s possible but may be a stretch. After all, not many pitchers of his caliber get traded so young. I’m really not saying that Bauer is on the block, but if a good enough offer comes around, I see the D-Backs going for it.

            Maybe the Jays and D-Backs talk about Bauer and realize something like this: Maybe not Bauer, but Patrick Corbin also fits nicely into the Jays plans, as does Adeiny Hechavarria with Arizona. A cheap way for both teams to fill holes!

            Tell me what you think and shoot me a comment or tweet!

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Bash Yunel and Cheer for Delmon...I Don't Think So

On the first day of Rosh Hashanah(Jewish New Year), which happens to be exactly one month ago(September 17th), I woke up and read the sports section in the Toronto Star. Instead of finding 5 or 6 articles about the NHL approaching a lockout because it's a Toronto newspaper,(The lockout might have started already, frankly I have no idea and I don't care), I found that Yunel Escobar acted like an idiot unknowingly by writing "Tu Ere Maricon" on his Eye Black. My first thought was "He'll be suspended 5 or 6 games, and that's it. This isn't a big deal". I was wrong. 

The Toronto media made this into the largest sports story in Toronto since... well...I guess when the Jays won back to back World Championships(I just realized how sad it is that it's been 20 years since Toronto had some serious sports news). It was a big deal as he clearly offended Gays, but you could see during the press conference that he obviously had no idea that this could happen. As Yunel, and many other Latino's on the team stated, "Maricon"(English translation "Faggot") was a word that they use all the time, that has no derogatory meaning towards gays in the context they use it in. It was a mistake that he sincerely apologized for, but Toronto has yet to get over this. People 1 month ago were calling for Yunel to be released, traded, sent down, benched, anything really that would get him to not play, and they continue to do that to this very day. 

Young,centre, getting escorted by NYPD.

This wouldn't be a problem in my eyes at all, if these same people calling for Yunel's release weren't cheering for Delmon Young when he hits a homer or drives somebody in. In case you don't know why Delmon Young doesn't deserve to be cheered for, here's a quote from the NY Post on April 28th of this year.

"Detroit Tigers slugger Delmon Young went on a drunken, anti-Semitic rampage outside a posh Manhattan hotel yesterday — shouting “f--king Jews” at a group of tourists before throwing one to the ground, sources said."

How in their right mind can anybody criticize Yunel to the point where they want him to lose his job, yet still cheer for this Anti-Semitic and abusive player? How can so many people have the audacity to pretend like nothing happened with Delmon Young and the Jews? That is the most hypocritical thing you could do.

It's not a coincidence that the Yunel story came out on the Jewish new year.  It was a test for humanity to see how far we have come since Young did what he did. I think it is quite obvious that most of you just put an act on when the Yunel story came out. Because if it wasn't an act, and you actually cared that he insulted a large group of people, you all wouldn't be so forgiving when it comes to Delmon Young. I know from my feed on twitter that most of you reading this did in fact criticize Yunel to a great extreme, and yet, for the past 2 weeks, you have all been cheering on Delmon Young like he did nothing wrong. The guy was drunk, said derogatory statements against Jews to a bunch of tourists and Jews, and physically beat a Jew up. How in any way is writing a word on eye black without knowing what it means in American society worse than that? We are in the year 2012.Both acts are not acceptable.

What Delmon Young did was out of pure hatred, and he took it to an extreme by not only saying what he felt, but also by abusing somebody. Yunel offended people without even knowing what he did could hurt somebody. Those two things are not even close to comparable. But yet, according to so many of you, Yunel did something worse than Young. Delmon was arrested for hate crime. That's bad.

Next time Delmon Young does something remotely good on the diamond, think about how much of a hypocritical jerk you would be if you cheer for him. I don't hate Delmon Young. That would make me as bad as him. Yunel Escobar doesn't hate gays. Delmon Young hates Jews.

Go ahead. Cheer for Delmon Young. Just don't ever, ever think about booing Yunel Escobar for what he did.EVER.

Comments are welcome below.

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I'd like to thank Isaac Boloton( @IsaacBlueJays) for giving me the idea for this article.

Blue Jays Mid-Season Grades: Part 4

You know the drill. Part 4 for your reading pleasure!
Yunel Escobar: C

Yunel has been hitting the ball a lot
 better since being moved down in the order.

Yunel has been one of the biggest disappointments this year offensively for the team. As of today (July 6th), Yunel is batting .256 with an OBP just over .300 at .303. After losing his role as the lead off hitter at the beginning of the season to become the #2 hitter, Yunel lost his job again, this time being moved to the 6th spot in the line-up. He has been fine when hitting 6th and that is because he has been more aggressive at the plate when not in the top of the order. When he puts the ball in play during the first three pitches of an at bat this season he is batting .303, compared to a .206 average after those first three pitches. Those stats are the reason I believe he will end up hitting close to .290 again this year, as there is now no pressure on him to see more pitches, so he can swing early in the count, and get his hits. His defense has once again been above average this season, but he does make a lot of plays without thinking, so that is the one aspect of his defensive game he needs to improve in order to finish off the season strong.

Drew Hutchison: C-

Hutch was called up on April 21st to be the Blue Jays 5th starter, and he wasn’t too bad, especially for a 21 year old Rookie. His first 4 starts were really bad, as he pitched to a 6.65 ERA while his opponents got on base at a rate of 36%. But starting on May 12th, his 5th start, until he got injured on June 15th, he pitched to a 3.41 ERA, while his opponents got on base at a rate of just 31%. He did have some troubles with his control during that time period, but he was able to grind through those and get people out. He is now resting his arm, and if he does not end up requiring surgery like Cardinals Pitcher Jamie Garcia did, he should be back in September. If he keeps up what he had done for that last month before he got injured, he should be just fine, and his grade will definitely improve.

There hasn't been too many things Omar
has been able to smile about this year

Omar Vizquel: D

Sorry Omar, I think it’s time you ought to retire! Vizquel isn’t really doing anything for this team, except for going o-for when Kelly Johnson or Yunel Escobar needs a day off. His defense has been pretty good in the small time that he has played, and he is getting on base more than JP Arencibia! If only getting on base more than JPA meant something… What you see is what you get for Omar. He would be more valuable if Adeiny Hechavarria was up in Toronto, but he isn’t, so he is basically useless, although it is nice having a future Hall of Famer sign a ton of autographs for the fans before every game.

Ben Francisco: D

Thanks to the demotion of Eric Thames, Ben Francisco isn’t as useless as Omar anymore, because now he has a job! Being the fifth outfielder is tough, because you don’t get any playing time, and any chance you do get to play, your rusty, so you don’t do anything productive. That’s why Ben has cherished being the fourth outfielder! Since coming back from his rehab assignment he was on due to injury, he is 4/11 and he got his first 2 RBI’s of the season yesterday! Basically Francisco is just going to warm the bench for a while, as his 5th outfielder job should be coming back soon with the impending arrival of Travis Snider (I hope!). If he doesn’t play for the rest of the season, his grade might actually go up, because he will have not cost the Jays anymore wasted at-bats!

Ricky has not dealt with his
 struggles well.

Ricky Romero: D

I was debating with myself whether to give Ricky a F, or a D-, but a D is what I decided was right, due to Ricky’s April. In that April he pitched to a 3.18 ERA while only walking 13. Those walks are significant because they are what have led to his demise as the best pitcher on the Blue Jays staff. Since his first start in May, on the 2nd, he has pitched to an ERA of 6.40, and has walked 42! He has lost his control completely. He has no feel for any of his pitches, and has given up 16 earned runs over his past two starts. When the Jays need him to be at his best to make up for the loss of 3 starters, he has failed, and if he does not return to form quickly, the Jays playoff hopes will also be lost.

I want to hear your feedback! Comment on what your grades would have been, and we could discuss.

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Game 8: LA Angels of A 6, Blue Jays 5 F/14 innings

When a baseball game takes 5 hours ands 3 minutes, you know its a crazy game, but you don't expect it to be so crazy. You don't think that the Jays would turn 5 double plays,one bizarre one.You don't imagine that a fast guy like Bobby Abreu would be thrown out at home twice in extra innings.I'm sure you did not think that the Jays would call MLB headquarters during the game to get clearance for Yunel Escobar to play in the game last night, but they did.But what you don't expect is an umpire to hold a grudge on the jays for 19 years, but he did.
Think back to the World Series in 1992, when the Jays were facing the Braves.Do you remember the play when the Jays had turned a triple play, but Bob Davidson ruled it a double play, because most Jays fan do.So Davidson decided to show the Jays that he still hates them, and blew the game again tonight.He called an offensive interference on Yunel Escobar, which made the go ahead run in the top of the 13th not count, and it was all down hill from there.
Dan Haren came on in the top of the 14th,yes Dan Haren the starter, and shut down the Jays making them go 1,2,3. Jon Rauch came on in the bottom of the 14th to try to hold the Angels in check, and was doing a very nice job of it. Unfortunately after getting two quick outs, and getting ahead on Peter Bourjos hit a liner to right field. Travis Snider tripped while running back to the wall, and it was a double for the speedy Bourjos. Rauch then gave up a single to Maicer Izturis, and a strong throw from Jose Bautista wasn't able to get Bourjos at the plate as the Angels walked off 6-5.
It was a great game, but the Jays should have won it if Bob Davidson wasn't such a jerk.Jim Joyce is now the second worst umpire of all time in my books, as this is now the second time Davidson ruined a Jays game.