Why May will be a Better Month for the Blue Jays:

          As it has been well-documented, the much anticipated Toronto Blue Jays 2013 edition has not gone as expected so far this year, and while that old saying “it’s early” should probably be the highest trending hash tag on Twitter, it is likely getting pretty old for Blue Jays fans. Should we be worried that we currently sit 9.5 games behind the team we are playing (i.e. Boston Red Sox) or should we be more focused on the fact that it is May now and there are actually some signs of life for this ballclub after a brutal April.

          Encarnacion is Back!

          Edwin Encarnacion or EE has been hitting the ball hard since April 2^nd, but really until the past 10 days, he has not had anything to show for it. In the opening road series in Detroit, Edwin was hitting .090 and had two home runs but his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was atrocious and it was physically impossible for it to remain at that low of a level for the whole season. Now, the hits are starting to fall or go to the 5^th Deck and we are seeing that last year was no fluke for Encarnacion or his awesome right wing rounding the bases.

          Reyes is Healing

           Losing Jose Reyes after just 10 short games was a huge blow to both the offense and in the clubhouse, but while we all appreciate him staying with the club to cheer on his teammates, we would much rather see him on a rehab assignment to get back as soon as he can, and that is going to happen in the next few days. Buck Martinez hinted a few days ago during a broadcast of Blue Jays game in New York that Reyes was expected to begin a strengthening program with the week and going from there. He is still not very close or even somewhat close to coming back as the Blue Jays placed him on the 60-Day DL not too long ago (April 23^rd to be exact) so he is not eligible to play in a big league game until June 22^nd which is absolute best case scenario with that leaving Reyes having played a full 95 games in the 2013 season, which would be amazing.

          Casey the Next Kimbrel?

          When Sergio Santos was brought in as really the only significant piece of the 2011-2012 offseason for the Blue Jays in exchange for highly touted prospect Nestor Molina, he was expected to be the closer of the future for the team, but after only a handful of relief appearances that year and with an ERA over 9.00 and two blown saves, he was shut down for the rest of the season and had to undergo shoulder surgery causing to miss the whole season. While rehabbing throughout 2012, Casey Janssen stepped in more than admirably and recorded 22 saves in 25 opportunities with a sparkling 2.54 ERA as the “temporary closer”. With Santos being fully healthy for Spring Training, the closers question was once again in the air as Santos has the better stuff with a high 90’s fastball and arguably the best slider in the game (sorry Luke Gregerson) but with Janssen doing so well last year in that role, the Blue Jays went to the more proven commodity in Janssen heading out of Spring Training. Shortly into the season (April 13^th) the Blue Jays lost Santos again to right triceps tightness, and with Santos’ arm problems the Blue Jays and Major League Baseball have been able to watch the emergence of an afterthought reliever a few short years ago. Janssen has gone a perfect 7/7 in save opportunities this season and has shown no signs of slowing down.

          All in all, the Blue Jays season has been pretty terrible to this point, but the pitching is getting better the team batting average is up to about .230 and the bullpen, while overworked, is still doing their job. There is room for optimism for Toronto Blue Jays fans, just be patient.

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Nicholas Bell

Will the Jays Experience a Defensive Drop Off in 2013?

In the past two months, Alex Anthopoulos has turned the Blue Jays into a World Series favourite by making a couple of Free Agents signings (Maicer Izturis and Melky Cabrera), acquiring virtually every good player on the Marlins except for Giancarlo Stanton, and trading for the reigning National League CY Young Winner in R.A. Dickey. The club has drastically improved (on paper at least) on offense and in the starting rotation, but how they will fare defensively (again, on paper), is still a question mark.

Using the metric of Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), the Jays, along with the Atlanta Braves were the best fielding team in Major League Baseball (according to the data in this ActaSports article). Led by Brett Lawrie, whom scouts and prospect writers said was “destined for a corner outfield spot”; the Jays saved 70 runs while on defense. They did this using shifts created by now departed infield/3^rd base coach Brian Butterfield, and subsequently also led the league in DRS by shifts, saving 12 this past season.  By just using the info given above, you likely think that the Blue Jays defense might take a little hit in 2012 because Butterfield is no longer at the helm of the infield defense, but not undergo such a drastic change. That’s not true. Here are some charts to take a look at.

Most of the players above had career years defensively

in 2012, something sure to change in 2013.

Projections were made using weighted averages of the players

 last 3 seasons performance, and then multiplied to give a 1400 innings sample.



What you just saw is a chart of the qualified players in 2012 on the Blue Jays, and the projected starters (Izturis and Bonifacio as a platoon for 2B) for 2013. The total DRS for the Blue Jays in 2012 was 70, which was so high due to abnormally good performance’s from most of the team, and, well, Brett Lawrie and Yunel Escobar. Of the qualified players shown in the 2012 chart, their total DRS was 59. We know that the total team DRS was 70 in 2012.So, given the addition of Mark Buehrle to the rotation, who is known for his stellar defense, and adding all the other members of the rotation and bench players, we can assume that the final number in 2013 will be around +10. A significant drop from the leage leading mark posted a few months ago.

The departure of Yunel Escobar (+15), Jeff Mathis (+5), and Kelly Johnson (+5), will hurt a lot, and so will the regression back to the mean for players like JP Arencibia, Colby Rasmus, and Edwin Encarnacion. Then, once you factor in that Brett Lawrie’s projected DRS of 36 is completely unrealistic due to it being skewed by the small sample size he produced in 2011 (+16 in less than 50 games), the 2013 number drops even more. Things aren’t looking too good…

With Escobar and Johnson leaving, the pitcher who will suffer the most is Ricky Romero, who is a true ground ball pitcher, with a career average GB% of 54%. Just another reason why it will be hard for him to get back to being a number 3 pitcher this season.

Of course, this is all on paper. Some players will outperform their projections, while others will fail to reach their projections. This is all before the season, and you can never accurately project baseball; it’s just such a weird game. It is going to be a very fun year to watch the Jays as they should once again be a force offensively and for the first time in a few years, they, barring injuries, should also have a fantastic pitching staff. But, their defense projects to be much, much worse than in 2012, especially at shortstop, where we’ve had the privilege to watch one of the best in the game in Yunel Escobar for the past few years, and now we’ll have to suffer through Jose Reyes manning the shortstop position for the foreseeable future. 

How do you think the 2013 Jays defense will perform? Let us know in the comment section below.

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The Trade is Official!

Bud Selig has, after 6 days(although he only received the paperwork on Friday) has approved the mega-deal between the Jays and Marlins that sends All Stars Josh Johnson,Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, John Buck,speedster IF/OF Emilio Bonifacio, and an undisclosed amount of cash(last we heard it was $8million) to the Jays! Going to the Marlins in the trade are Major Leaguers Yunel Escobar, Jeff Mathis, and Henderson Alvarez along with prospects Adeiny Hechavarria, Jake Marisnick, Anthony DeSclafini, and Justin Nicolino. I have nothing really to say other than "RBI's for JOSE BAUTISTA"...cause you know, with Reyes and Melky in front of him, he will lead the league in that meaningless stat, and stop Miguel Cabrera from winning the triple crown again!!!

In other news, Manny Acta is going to be working in TV next year, and they haven't even contacted him, so cross him off the list.

Who do you want to be manager? Leave your comments below.

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Trade Reaction:AA is Still Awesome

The big 3 that the Jays acquired yesterday, from
right to left:JJ,Reyes, and Buehrle

In case you were having doubts, Alex Anthopolous is still a top 5 GM in the MLB. You all know by now, but if you don't, the Jays and Marlins made a trade that is bigger than the one that brought Joe Carter and Roberto Alomar to Toronto in 1990.It was:

To Toronto:
Josh Johnson
Mark Buehrle
Jose Reyes
John Buck
Emilio Bonifacio
$8.5 Million

To Miami:
Henderson Alvarez
Yunel Escobar
Adeiny Hechavarria
Justin Nicolino
Jake Marisnick
Anthony Desclafini
Jeff Mathis

Yup. If not for Jeffrey Loria being a cheap skate(see this article written by our own Ewan Ross in July for more details), this trade would not have been done. But, because Loria ruined baseball in Montreal, and scammed the city of Miami out of $500 million, the Jays got lucky! So...On to some trade analysis? Why not?

Josh Johnson- JJ has long been coveted by Blue Jays fans. I can remember having countless conversations on twitter last off-season and in July about acquiring JJ from the Marlins, and it really just seemed like a forgone conclusion that it was going to happen. The Jays and Marlins matched up so well  as trade partners, and Johnson fits in perfectly with this team. In just 9 starts in 2011, he had a WAR of 2.8, so you can see how good he is. After missing most of 2011 due to injuries, he came back in 2012, and was pretty good. He pitched to a 3.40 FIP, and his velocity was basically the same on all of his pitches as it was pre-surgery, so there isn't such a big reason to be concerned about his health. He also pitched over 190 innings, so he seems to be durable once again. Josh is only under contract for 2013, so an extension seems to be something AA would like to get done. It is going to be fun watching this 2-time all-star pitch, whether that is Opening day, or game #2, we will get to witness a great pitcher, one who was considered one of the 7 or 8 aces in the MLB before having surgery.

Mark Buehrle- Workhorse. That is what Buehrle is, and that is what he hopefully will remain. Mark has pitched over 200 innings every year since 2001, and has only posted a WAR less than 2 once since then. He provides the Jays with something they haven't had in a while, and will look great in that number 3 spot for Toronto. His contract is pretty bad because he was a FA, and you always over pay in free agency, but, that doesn't seem to be a problem anymore with this new less cheap version of Rogers.

Add those famous dreads, and Reyes will look
awesome wearing the blue and white!

Jose Reyes- Remember Shannon Stewart(not the 2008 version). He is the last true lead off hitter the Jays have had. Jose Reyes, is, now, a true lead off hitter. When he is healthy, Reyes is the best offensive shortstop in the game(because Tulo is never healthy). We saw that in 2011, and we've seen that many times before. He is going to get on base a lot(.342 career), and will steal close to 40 bases yearly. The only problem with Reyes is that he tears his hamstring when signing an autograph(exaggeration), and playing on the turf at the Skydome will not help him at all! Hopefully the Beest can fulfill his impossible goal of putting grass in the dome. His contract is also pretty bad, but he's amazing, so you can't complain. Reyes batting first is going to be a sight to see. When Jose Bautista hits a home run driving in Jose Reyes, the Jose-Jose-Jose-Jose chants will be deafening in Toronto. That alone will make his contract worth it.

John Buck- There is no question that Buck was the "thrown in" in this deal, but he might be turn out to be a lot more significant than just a throw in. The re-acquisition of Buck allows AA to trade one of JP Arencibia,Travis d'Arnaud, or Buck himself. AA can get another starter, which could be very useful because right now the Jays have no depth in their rotation, or can trade on of them(package with a reliever most likely) for a left fielder. A trade of JPA and Casey Janssen to Texas for David Murphy seems fair, and Murphy would be a perfect fit.

Emilio Bonafacio- Where will Emilio play? That's the big question right now as he can play second base, and the outfield. I'd slot the speedy Bonafacio in the 2 spot in the lineup, playing left field. I personally think with our offense, we can live with Maicer Izturis playing everyday, and trading JPA for a pitcher would bring us more value than a left fielder might. Bonafacio provides a switch hitting hitter who will steal 50+ bases if he plays everyday. Runs won't be hard to come by in 2013 for the Jays, but with 1 injury to the staff, the team could lose its pitching.

There is undoubtedly a lot of risk in this trade. This trade could make the Blue Jays a dynasty, or cripple them for years to come because of the amount of questionable salary taken on. This is the biggest trade in franchise history, but, don't be worried. The odds of this trade not working out for us are much lower than the odds that it succeeds.

Be happy. Enjoy the fact that AA just stole 4 all-stars from the Marlins for a few prospects who are nothing more than prospects, and a few major leaguers who have a lot of question marks. You could worry that this might fail miserably in February, but for now, enjoy!

What do you think about this franchise changing trade? Let us know in the comments section below!


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