30 Teams in 30 Days: Tampa Bay Rays

Andrew Friedman, best GM in baseball.

2012 Record: 92-70 (3rd AL East)

The Rays are my favourite team other than the Jays, and although they always beat up on Toronto, and are rivals with the Jays, it's really hard not to like them. They have the best GM in the game along with a great ownership group, a fantastic manager, and a young cost controlled team that just keeps on refreshing with prospects once players get too expensive and have to leave. The only problem with the Rays is their stadium situation, and unfortunately that doesn't look like it will resolve itself for a while. Tropicana Field is located in St. Petersburg, rather than downtown Tampa, and the horrible stadium can't attract fans because it's so far away from the population centre(and it's hideous). The Rays seem to have the perfect model for a franchise to continue sustainable winning, but if they can't move to a new stadium and reap the profits from it, it's only a matter of time before this franchise takes it's winning model to Vancouver or San Antonio. With this front office staff, a budget of $120M or so would have this team being able to retain home grown talent, and not trade it away before it gets expensive, which, in turn, will lead to the illustrious first title. On to the preview!

Key Additions
OF Jason Bourgeois (MILB Deal)
1B Shelley Duncan (MILB Deal)
SS Yunel Escobar (Trade w/ MIA)
SP Roberto Hernandez (Fausto Carmona) (1 year $3.25M)
2B Kelly Johnson (1 year $2.45M)
1B James Loney (1 year $2M)
RF Wil Myers (Trade w/ KC)
SP Jake Odorizzi (Trade w/ KC)
RP Juan Carlos Oviedo (Leo Nunez) (MILB Deal)
RP Jamey Wright (MILB Deal)

Key Subtractions
RP Burke Badenhop (Trade w/ MIL)
SS Reid Brignac (Trade w/ COL)
SP Wade Davis (Trade w/ KC)
OF Ben Francisco (MILB Deal w/ CLE)
RP J.P. Howell (1 year $2.85M w/ LAD)
3B Jeff Keppinger (3 years $13M w/ CWS)
1B Carlos Pena (1 year $2.9M w/ HOU)
2B Will Rhymes (MILB Deal w/ WAS)
SP James Shields (Trade w/ KC)
OF B.J. Upton (5 years $75.25M w/ ATL)

Addition That Will Help the Most
I'd write about Wil Myers, but I want to save him for the prospect part of the article, so today it's going to be Toronto's least favourite athlete, shortstop Yunel Escobar.

Probably one of the most underrated players Toronto has ever seen, Escobar had a down year Joe Maddon, he is capable of putting up 3.5+ WAR in a season, made up of supreme defense, okay base running, and the ability to get on base at rate around 35%. Let's just hope he goes back to his 2012 self when he plays the Jays.

offensively in 2012, but was still worth 2.7 rWAR thanks to his incredible defense which saw him save 14 runs for Toronto pitchers, good enough to tie for third in the league of the 21 qualified players. Not only did he have a down year at the plate this past season, but also off the field, as he made a stupid mistake when he wrote a homophobic slur on his Eye Black in a September contest that all but ensured he wouldn't be coming back to the Rogers Centre with the Jays in 2013. So, he was traded to the Marlins when AA stole Miami's heart, and then traded again a few weeks later to Tampa Bay. In his 6 year career, he's had 4 very good years offensively, and 2 not so good years, but unfortunately for him, everybody only remembers the bad years. When he's hot, which I'm sure he will be again in 2013 when  he plays for the magical

*I'll be doing 2 prospect profiles to make up for the lack of spring training battles section.

Questions Heading into the Season

Will the loss of B.J Upton be too much for the Rays offense to handle?

The Rays offense finished 18th in the league last year in runs, in a season that saw Evan Longoria miss significant time. Then, B.J Upton became a free agent last November, and moved up a state to play in Atlanta to play with the Braves. With the loss of Upton, a larger question mark surrounds the Rays offence than ever before. With the additions of Escobar and Kelly Johnson, a full season from Longoria, and 4-5 months of awesomeness from the uber-prospect that is Desmond Jennings Wil Myers, it might be fine. They won't finish top 10 in the league, but closer to the top than the bottom is definitely not unreasonable for this ever so talented club.

Will the loss of James Shields be too much for the Rays pitching to handle?

Haha. Don't kid yourself, the Rays pitching is always one of the best in the league, and trading James Shields to the Royals that play in Kansas City is not going to hurt it enough to make a difference. They have 11 major league caliber rotation arms, and only 6 of them are in the majors, so depth isn't a problem either.
Fausto Roberto Hernandez is said to be much closer to his 2007 4th place in Cy Young voting self to the Hernandez of late, which could only mean good things. David Price is one of only 7 or 8 true ACES in baseball, and Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, and Alex Cobb make out a 2-4-5 that can stand it's own with the best in baseball. Then, you got Jeff Niemann, Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi and more in the bullpen and minors waiting to be summoned into the rotation to mow down opposing hitters. It's truly a beautiful thing they've built in tampa with all this depth. It will be enough to keep up with the loss of Shields.

Prospect(s) Who'll have an Impact in 2013

Wil Myers-Myers, acquired from the fools over in Kansas City is a top 3 prospect in all of baseball, and will start the season in AAA but should be up soon a la Mike Trout. He possesses 60 grade tools all around, and he should be a force in the Rays lineup along with Longoria and Zobrist for years to come. He'll play a solid right field, but he's going to have to learn how to make adjustments against major league pitchers, something he hasn't had to do much because minor league pitching is like kids throwing 40 MPH to him. 30 home runs a year is not too unrealistic for this guy in the near future, and I, and probably many others, can't wait to see him play  KC and dominate against them. Myers is a can't miss type of guy, and if the top prospect can stay healthy, Rays fans(or maybe fan?) are going to be blessed once again with being able to watch one of the most young and exciting players in the game.

Chris Archer- Archer, the second ranked prospect for the Rays, is a 25 year old tall righty who had major league success in 2012, but still qualifies as a rookie after pitching in only 29.1 innings at the major league level in 2012(he posted a FIP of 3.40). His ceiling is a division 1 number 2 starter, and his arsenal is definitely ready to get him to that point sooner rather than later. His fastball sits in the mid 90's with solid movement and is a future 70 grade pitch, and his secondary stuff is also great, with a 70+ slider and plus change. If he does fail as a starter, he can always be great late inning reliever, but expect him to be dominating out of the rotation for many years to come.

I hate how the Rays have no fans yet have such a good team :(

Projected 2013 Roster via MLBDC and BP
Projected Starting Lineup
1 CF Desmond Jennings  
2 LF Matt Joyce*  Out of Options 
3 3B Evan Longoria  
4 RF Ben Zobrist**  
5 DH Luke Scott*  vs RHP  
6 SS Yunel Escobar  
7 1B James Loney*  vs RHP  
8 C Jose Molina  
9 2B Kelly Johnson*  vs RHP  

Projected Bench
C Jose Lobaton**  Out of Options 
IF Sean Rodriguez  vs LHP  
IF/OF Ryan Roberts  vs LHP  
OF Sam Fuld*  Out of Options 

Projected Starting Rotation
1 LHP David Price  
2 RHP Jeremy Hellickson  
3 RHP Roberto Hernandez  
4 LHP Matt Moore  
5 RHP Alex Cobb  

Projected Bullpen
CL RHP Fernando Rodney  
SU RHP Joel Peralta  
SU LHP Jake McGee  Out of Options 
MID RHP Kyle Farnsworth  
MID LHP Cesar Ramos  Out of Options 
MID RHP Jamey Wright  
LR RHP Jeff Niemann  Out of Options 

Projected 2013 Record: 90-72 (2nd AL East, wild card spot)
*note that these records will be changing in he final standings piece going up tomorrow.

This projection is pretty low for the Rays, and 95 wins is not of the question for this team. Led by a top 3 rotation, a solid bullpen, and a middle of the pack offense, Tropicana Field is sure to have baseball being played there come October, unfortunately, it won't be sold out...

Analyzing the Offseasons of the AL East

With Spring Training right around the corner, (pitchers and catchers report in less than a month) it would appear that most teams are done making major moves. This is why I think it's fair that we can now analyze the offseasons of the AL East, as even if any AL East teams do sign one of the 3 remaining major free agents, the team doesn't change enough for my opinion on how the offseaon has gone for that given team. I will go through each team and tell you what they did, show you their projected lineup and rotation, give you my thoughts, and give an overall verdict and grade. I will go in order, based on the standings from 2012.

New York Yankees 
2012 Record: 95-67 
Key Acquisitions: Kevin Youkilis via free agency (1 year, $12 million), Russ Canzler (Waiver Claim from Indians) 

Re-Signed: Andy Pettite (1 year, $12 million), Hiroki Kuroda (1 year, $15 million), Ichiro Suzuki (2 years, $13 million), Mariano Rivera (1 year, $10 million). 

Key Departures: Nick Swisher (to SEA), Russell Martin (to PIT), Raul Ibanez (to SEA), Rafael Soriano (FA) 

Projected Lineup and Rotation: 

1. RF Ichiro Suzuki
2. SS Derek Jeter
3. 2B Robinson Cano
4. 1B Mark Teixeira 
5. CF Curtis Granderson
6. 3B Kevin Youkilis 
7. DH Eduardo Nunez (sometimes Russ Canzler) 
8. LF Brett Gardner
9. C Chris Stewart

1. LHP CC Sabathia
2. RHP Hiroki Kuroda
3. LHP Andy Pettite 
4. RHP Phil Hughes
5. RHP Ivan Nova 

CP- Mariano Rivera
SU- David Robertson 

Analysis: 
The fact is, the Yankees didn't get any better this offseason. They didn't upgrade at a single position. I do give them credit for re-signing numerous free agents that are keys to the team, but I don't think it was enough. Losing Swisher and Martin are the 2 biggest blows to the team, especially since they don't have any players to fill in at both DH or catcher (until Gary Sanchez is ready). Having Nunez and Stewart or Romine in the lineup every day should prove to be a huge disappointment. I don't think that Youkilis will be as bad of a signing as people say he will be, and once A-Rod comes back, their offence should get a huge boost.
Verdict:
The Yankees got worse. The offseason has been disastrous. With that being said, the Yankees are still a very good team. The Yankees didn't need to do much, but it would have been much better if they made a move for a catcher, or possibly a better DH. Every year we say that the Yankees haven't done enough, and yet they still find themselves playing meaningful baseball in October. I still expect them to be contenders to win the AL East.

Offseason Grade: C-
Overall Team Grade: A-


Baltimore Orioles
2012 Record: 93-69
Key Acquisitions: Alexi Casilla (off waivers from MIN), Trayvon Robinson (via trade from SEA), Danny Valencia (via trade from BOS).

Re-Signed: Nate McLouth(1 year, $2 million).

Key Departures: Mark Reynolds (to CLE), Joe Saunders(still a FA), Robert Andino (trade to SEA), Jim Thome (still a FA) 

Projected Lineup and Rotation: 

1. LF Nate McLouth
2. SS J.J. Hardy
3. RF Nick Markakis
4. CF Adam Jones
5. C Matt Wieters
6. 1B Chris Davis
7. DH Wilson Betemit
8. 3B Manny Machado
9. 2B Brian Roberts (or Ryan Flaherty) 


1. RHP Jason Hammel
2. LHP Wei Yin Chen
3. RHP Chris Tillman
4. RHP Miguel Gonzalez
5. LHP Zach Britton

CP- Jim Johnson
SU- Darren O'day
SU- Pedro Strop


Analysis:

I get it. If you use logic, you would think that if the Orioles had a successful season in 2012, that it would make sense for the O's to stay put in the offseason. Unfortunately, the 2012 season for the Baltimore Orioles completely defied logic. The O's do have some good pieces, but the fact is, they were really, really lucky last season. Based on this, I would say that the O's should have made some more moves, maybe to bring in some starting pitching or long relief help, or an upgrade at second base or left field. I like the Casilla waiver claim, but all he'll do is be a replacement to what they had in Robert Andino.

Verdict: 

Just not enough. The Orioles just don't have enough talent to compete this year. Most of the time, when you're lucky one year, the next year you'll come back down to earth. The O's will do exactly that. The only way I can see the O's competing is if Dylan Bundy emerges onto the scene and instantly becomes a star, which isn't something completely crazy, but it usually doesn't happen, even with the best of prospects (Mike Trout was special).

Offseason Grade: D+ 
Overall Team Grade: B- (borderline C+) 



Tampa Bay Rays
2012 Record: 90-72
Key Acquisitions: Yunel Escobar (via trade from MIA), James Loney (via FA 1 year, $2 million),
Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery (all via trade from KC), Roberto Hernandez (Fausto Carmona)((via FA 1 year, 3.25M))

Re-Signed: Joel Peralta (2 years $6 million) 

Key Departures: B.J. Upton (to ATL), Jeff Keppinger (to CWS), J.P. Howell (to LAD), Carlos Pena (to HOU), Luke Scott (still a FA), Kyle Farnsworth (still a FA), James Shields, Wade Davis (Both traded to KC)

Projected Lineup and Rotation: 

1. CF Desmond Jennings
2. SS Yunel Escobar
3. 2B Ben Zobrist
4. 3B Evan Longoria
5. RF Matt Joyce
6. LF Wil Myers
7. 1B James Loney
8. DH Ryan Roberts (Maddon will use numerous players in this role) 
9. C Jose Molina

1. LHP David Price
2. RHP Jeremy Hellickson
3. LHP Matt Moore
4. RHP Jeff Niemann
5. RHP Chris Archer

CP- Fernando Rodney 
SU- Joel Peralta
SU- Jake McGee

** The Rays lineup and rotation is hard to predict right now, as a lot of it will be determined in Spring Training. You could see Alex Cobb or Jake Odorizzi in the rotation instead of Archer or Niemann, and it's unclear if Wil Myers will make the team out of camp, if not, the Rays will go with a platoon of Sam Fuld and Brandon Guyer in LF.

Analysis: 

The Rays' moves in the offseason have been very well received in the baseball world, and rightfully so. In what was an incredibly lopsided trade, the Rays stole the Royals 3 top prospects in exchange for James Shields and Wade Davis, a trade that will surely work out very well in the long-term for the Rays, and it was possibly a trade that determined that they will be a contender in 3-5 years from now, unless Myers, Odorizzi, and Montgomery are complete busts. An under-appreciated trade that they made was the trade for Yunel Escobar. They got him for practically nothing, and many feel that he could bounce back in a big way offensively, to go along with his already stellar defense.

Verdict: 

The offseason has been a success for the Rays. They have yet to make a move that I question. What I think is forgotten, though, is that they lost multiple impact players in James Shields and B.J. Upton. Short-term, I actually don't think that they got any better, but they certainly didn't get any worse. The best way to explain it is that they got the best out of a not-so-great situation.  Well done, Friedman.

Offseason Grade: A
Overall Team Grade: A-


Toronto Blue Jays
 2012 Record: 73-89
Key Acquisitions: R.A. Dickey and Josh Thole (via trade from NYM),  Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Emilio Bonifacio, and Mark Buehrle (via trade from MIA), Melky Cabrera (via FA, 2 years, $16 million), Maicer Izturis (via FA, 3 years, $10 million), Esmil Rogers (via trade with CLE), Jeremy Jeffress (via trade with KC), Henry Blanco(via FA, 1 year, $750k.) 

Key Departures: Kelly Johnson (still a FA), Travis d'Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, and Wuilmer Beccera(all traded to NYM), Yunel Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jake Marisnick, Justin Nicolino, Henderson Alvarez, and Jeff Mathis(all traded to MIA), Jason Frasor (to TEX), Omar Vizquel (retired), Brandon Lyon (Free Agency), Carlos Villanueva (to CHC). 

** Also a completely new coaching staff, that includes John Gibbons as the manager.

Projected Lineup and Rotation: 

1. SS Jose Reyes
2. LF Melky Cabrera
3. RF Jose Bautista
4. 1B Edwin Encarnacion
5. 3B Brett Lawrie
6. CF Colby Rasmus
7. C J.P. Arencibia
8. DH Adam Lind
9. 2B Maicer Izturis/Emilio Bonifacio

1. RHP R.A. Dickey
2. RHP Brandon Morrow
3. LHP Mark Buehrle
4. RHP Josh Johnson
5. LHP Ricky Romero

CP- Casey Janssen 
SU- Sergio Santos
SU- Delabar/Loup/Lincoln/Rogers (all will be used in a set-up/middle-relief role) 



Analysis: 

Yes, this is a Blue Jays blog, but, I am not stating a biased opinion when I say the Blue Jays had the best offseason in the AL East, and possibly in Major League Baseball. All you have to look at is who the Jays got, and who left, to see that this is by far the most improved team in the Major Leagues. It isn't debatable that they got much better. I have heard an argument that the moves they made didn't help them out in the long-term, but the thing is, the Jays only have one player (Josh Johnson), who is due to be a free agent in 2014. The players that they acquired are long term players, with major league success. Many get too over-attached to the prospects, and don't understand that proven MLB talent defeats all.

Verdict: 

The Jays are good. Really good. The only thing that they might need to work out is the bullpen, but that need can be addressed when it is a need. So what I am trying to say is that if the bullpen is struggling mid-season, they can look to trade for one more dominant relief pitcher to put them over-the-top. As for right now, the Jays will stay put.

Offseason Grade: A+
Overall Team Grade: A 


Boston Red Sox
2012 Record: 69-93

Key Acquisitions: Shane Victorino (via FA, 3 years, $39 million), Jonny Gomes (via FA, 2 years, $10 million), David Ross (via FA 2 years, $6.2 million), Stephen Drew (via FA, 1 year, $9.5M), Ryan Dempster (via FA, 2 years, $26.5 million), Koji Uehara (via FA 1 year, $4.25 million) Mike Napoli (not finalized, but had agreement, looks like 1 year deal), Joel Hanrahan (via trade with PIT) 

Re-Signed: David Ortiz (2 years, $26 million)

Key Departures: Cody Ross (to ARZ), James Loney (to TBR), Ivan Dejesus Jr (Traded to PIT), Stolmy Pimentel (traded to PIT), Mark Melancon (traded to PIT)

**Also a completely new coaching staff, with John Farrell becoming the manager. 

Projected Lineup and Rotation: 

1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury
2. LF Shane Victorino
3. 2B Dustin Pedroia
4. DH David Ortiz
5. 1B Mike Napoli**
6. 3B Will Middlebrooks
7. SS Stephen Drew
8. RF Jonny Gomes
9. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia 

1. LHP Jon Lester
2. RHP Ryan Dempster
3. RHP Clay Buchholz
4. LHP Felix Doubront
5. RHP John Lackey

CP- Joel Hanrahan
SU-Andrew Bailey
SU- Koji Uehara/Junichi Tazawa

Analysis:

The Sox were handing out contracts like they were flyers this offseason. Any time you hand out lots of contracts to high profile free agents like they did, your team is bound to get better. And yes, the Red Sox did get much better. The question that must be asked is "is it enough to compete?" My answer to that question is yes, but just for 2013. With all of the talent that they have compiled, it would be hard to think that they won't at least be in the hunt for a wild card spot.

Verdict: 

The Sox got better for the short-term, but not for the long-term. Many of the contracts that they gave were to players that are either on the back-end of their primes, or already completely out of their primes, and by the time their contracts are expiring, it's hard to believe that any of them will be 2+ WAR players, which just isn't worth it, considering the money that they spent.

Offseason Grade: B
Overall Team Grade: B

My final offseason grades: 

1. Blue Jays- A+
2. Rays- A
3. Red Sox- B
4. Yankees- C-
5. Orioles- D+

I hope that you enjoyed the article. If any other significant moves are made in the AL East, I will update this article and keep you posted.


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30 Teams in 30 Days: Tampa Bay Rays

2011 Record: 91-71

Key Additions: Jeff Keppinger, Josh Lueke, Jose Molina, Carlos Pena, Fernando Rodney, Luke Scott

Subtractions: Johnny Damon, John Jaso, Dan Johnson, Kelly Shoppach, Andy Sonnanstine

2012 Outlook: As it has been since the Rays became competitive in 2008, the Rays strength isn`t their hitting, but it is their pitching. Led by James Shields, the Rays have arguably the best rotation in the MLB, and they are only getting better. Behind Shields is David Price,2011 AL Rookie of the Year winner, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, and Jeff Niemann. The #1 prospect in the MLB according too many, Moore, has amazing stuff, and will make Shields a number two starter come 2013, at least in my mind. The truly amazing part about the Rays staff isn't how good it is, and it's amazing, it's the depth that the rays posses. This spring, Niemann and Wade Davis competed for the #5 spot in the rotation. While Niemann won, it's ridiculous that Wade Davis, a pitcher who would be a 3/4 pitcher on most teams, was not able to make the rotation. The 1-4 guys on the Rays are as good as anybodies in the game, even the Angels. I would not be surprised if the Rays starting staff as a whole this year had an ERA under 3.00 in 2012, and that is just the beginning for this young and upcoming group.

After finishing in the middle of the pack of the MLB in 2011 in runs scored, with 707, the Rays decided that if they were going to want a chance at the World Series again, they would need a better offence. So, they went and brought back Carlos Pena after a 1-year deal with the Cubs. Pena, won't hit for average, but he gets on base (.352 career mark) and he crushes the ball (34.4 HR's a year since 2007). Pena will bat 4th in the Rays lineup, right behind All Star third baseman Evan Longoria in the three hole. Longoria, 26, hit 31 long balls in 2011, and he missed the first month of the season due to injury. He's got a nice sweet swing, and will benefit greatly with the acquisition of Pena. Except for Desmond Jennings in Center, the rest of the lineup is pretty average, which is the reason they struggle at times. My concern is Jose Molina. The former Blue Jay signed a 1 year deal with Tampa in the off-season, and has been given the starters role behind the dish. Molina has never been a starting worthy catcher, and at age 36, he is definitely not one now. If Jennings has a good sophomore campaign, and a 4th offensive star rises in this lineup, then the Rays will go far this October.

The Final Count: 93-69

The Rays have the potential to win 162 with their staff. Although that will not happen, 100 is in range of this club if the pitching lives up to the hype, and a 4th offensive contributor appears. 93 is realistic due to the lack of offense, and the young pitching staff.

Comments are welcomed below!

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Shocking News from Tampa Bay

Just a few minutes ago, Manny Ramirez retired from playing America's Game professionally. The slugger who has 555 career home runs, good enough for 14th on the all time list, decided to hang up his cleats because of an issue he had regarding the MLB's Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program. If Ramirez decides to come back and play again, he would have to continue with the program, from where he is leaving off. The Rays have now gone from a team that could have a good year, to a team that will most likely finish under .500.

Brandon Morrow and Frank Fransisco had horrible rehab appearances in Dunedin yesterday, but they will still pitch at least once more before rejoining the club. Octavio Dotel was reinstated from the DL yesterday, and will be part of a indestructible force with Mark Rzepczynski coming out of the bullpen. He will be the man to face right handers, while Rzepczynski will handle the lefties in late game situations. Casey Janssen was optioned back down to AAA, and will likely join the 51's this weekend.

The poll results are in, and out of the 13 people tested, 5 of them said the Jays will win the World Series this year. 3 people said the Red Sox would take it the championship, while 2 said the Phillies would, and three said another team would.0% of the people tested responded with the Giants repeating as World Champions this year.