30 Teams in 30 Days: Detroit Tigers

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30 in 30 – Detroit Tigers - 2012 team preview

Key Additions: Prince Fielder (1B), Octavio Dotel (RP)

Subtractions: Magglio Ordonez (RF), Joel Zumaya (RP), Wilson Betemit (INF)

2011 Record: 95-67

2011 Highlights: Justin Verlander turned out to be a pretty good pitcher for the Tigers and won the AL CY Young award, AL pitching Triple Crown & AL MVP award (posting 24 wins and 250 K’s).  Oh ya he also pitched a no-hitter May 7^th against the Toronto Blue Jays.  Jose Valverde saved 49 games.  Miguel Cabrera has a monster season going 111-30-105 and hitting .344 – which won the AL batting title.  Victor Martinez also had over 100 RBI’s with 103. 

Offseason Moves: Everyone was waiting for the Tigers to do something during the offseason, so they just signed the best free agent besides Albert Pujols.  Once an offseason injury forced Victor Martinez to miss all of 2012, the Tigers needed to replace his 103 RBI’s and quick.  In walks Scott Boras and get GM Dave Dombrowski to sign Fielder to a 9 year $214 Million dollar deal.  That means that Verlander, Cabrera and Fielder will earn over $60 million dollars in 2012 – about $5 less than that KC Roylas entire payroll.

2011 Rewind – The Detroit Tigers honored long time coach Sparky Anderson on opening day, who had passed away, and retired his jersey as well.  On July 30^th the Tigers saw something in Seattle’s Doug Fister (who was 3-12 and ended up going 8-1 for the Tigers with en ERA of just 1.79).  August 15^th the Tigers made another big move and landed Delmon Young from Minnesota (getting 32 RBI’s in 40 games for the Tigers). 

The Tigers went 1-5 playing against the Red Sox, and 7-11 in interleague play.  They could have won 100 games if those two series’ played out differently.  They won 50 games against teams in their own division.  Detroit went on an 11 game winning streak for the first time in over 43 years.  They clinched the AL Central division on September 16^th, for the first time since joining the division in 1998.  They beat the New York Yankees to advance to the American league championship series against the Texas Rangers, which they lost. 

2012 Outlook – The Detroit Tigers will just chug along in 2012.  They won 95 games and retooled both during the season and in this past offseason.  Victor Martinez will be a big loss during 2012, but if he didn’t go down, they might not have landed Prince Fielder.  Third Base will no longer be a question mark for the Tigers, as Miguel Cabrera (who will probably end the season being the best 3B in the AL).  They have an above average outfield – with Delmon Young, Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch.  They are solid behind the plate and at the corners, but not so much at DH and 2B. 

Their pitching staff 1-5 sould be a lot better in 2012, with Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Rick Porcello and Jacob Turner.  Their 1-4 starters could all could win 15 games in 2012.  The Tigers pitchers stacks up with the best of them in the American League, probably the 2^nd best behind Los Angeles Angels.       

Question Marks: Can Ryan Raburn put up a 75-20-70 season, like he can to improve on 2011?  How will Miguel Cabrera handle 3B, defensively at least?  Alex Avila came out of nowhere to hit 19 HR and 82 RBI, how will he do in 2012?  If he can get there again, he would be the top catcher in the AL.  Delmon Young needs to get back to his 100 RBI season, and there is no reason why he won’t in this potent lineup.  What do the Tigers have in their DH - Clete Thomas, Don Kelly, Brandon Inge – could be the AL’s worst DH hitter.  The Tigers don’t have a great defensive team, but with their offense and pitching they should win a lot of games once again.

Projected Lineup – Here’s how I would construct the Tigers batting order;

1. Austin Jackson (CF)
2. Brennan Boesch (RF)
3. Miguel Cabrera (3B)
4. Prince Fielder (1B)
5. Delmon Young (LF)
6. Alex Avila (C)
7. Jhonny Peralta (SS)
8. Ryan Raburn (2B)
9. Andy Dirks/Clete Thomas (DH)

Last year the Tigers won 95 games, and came 2 games away from playing in the World Series.  This year, the Detroit Tigers look even better this year than they did last year.  Gone are the days the Tigers will lose 90+ games over a 3 year span, including 119 losses in 2003.  Miguel Cabrera took a ball off his face and has a small fracture under his right eye.  But will be in the opening day lineup.     

At BlueJaysPlus, we see the Tigers winning close to 100 games, and could easily win 100-105 games.  They will once again benefit from playing the Royals, Indians and Twins and White Sox in 2012.  They will make the playoffs in 2012 and look to make the next step and make it to the World Series this year.  That won’t be too difficult with this team. 

The Final Count: 99-63 – 1^st in AL Central

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Note: There was an error when calculating how many wins the staff thought the Twins, Royals, White Sox, and Indians would have. Turns out, the entire AL Central's wins total except for the Tigers was messed up. Full corrections will be posted on March 31st in our full MLB Standings preview.

Offense vs Defense - Fielder vs Darvish

Offense vs Defense - Fielder vs Darvish

It’s one of the oldest debates in professional team sports, especially baseball - Offense vs defense. Which is more important? Do you win by not letting your opponent score any runs, or do you win by beating your opponent into the ground? The problem is, is that without context, both are right. So let’s add in some context. What should the Blue Jays add to their team to help them contend in 2012 and beyond, or more specifically, who? This offseason the Blue Jays have been linked to just about everyone, and most of all to Yu Darvish and Prince Fielder. A perfect offense vs defense situation.

The Blue Jays finished 2011 with a .500 record at 81-81, good for fourth in the AL East and ten games out of the Wild Card. So how can we jump into contention? Many believe the Prince Fielder will provide a huge spark to the Blue Jays, by bringing in a very big bat to help boost their offensive numbers, not only on his own, but also by providing some much needed protection to Bautista, and bringing what would likely be the most feared 3-4 spot in any lineup in the MLBs in 2012. However, is offense really the best option? Afterall, many detractors say that the Blue Jays finished 6^th in the MLB in runs scored, behind the Yankees and the Red Sox, but quite far ahead of the Phillies and the Rays, who both made the postseason. But beyond that, the Jays also finished the season as a team with the 10^th worst average (.249) and the 12^thworst OBP (.317). These are very obvious concerns that need addressing, and Prince Fielder would go a very long way in helping those concerns being erased. So there is no doubt that the overall offense needs to be improved. However, those clamoring for Prince haven’t realized all of the upgrades the Jays have made to their line-up since opening day last year. We can all look forward to full seasons from Brett Lawrie, Kelly Johnson and Colby Rasmus, and hopefully a bounce back year from Adam Lind, and maybe for once, everyone can stay healthy. All of those additions will do wonders to provide a very big boost to the Jays overall offensive numbers, so maybe Fielder isn’t the catalyst he appears to be to so many. But what about the pitching side of things?

The Jays had one of, if not, the youngest pitching staff in the majors last year, and showed tremendous potential, but finished the season with the 6^th worst ERA (4.32), 8^th worst WHIP (1.35), tied for the 5^th most walks allowed (540), and allowed more HRs than any AL team save the Orioles. A lot of this can be tied to the young staff, and a lot of changes made to the rotation throughout the year and a lot of different pitchers were given a lot of time in the rotation as the Jays took a look at what they had, but there is no doubt we have more room to improve with our pitching staff than we do with our lineup. Sure a lot of starts were given to the likes of Kyle Drabek and Jo-Jo Reyes at the start of the season, and much like the Jays line-up, the rotation has no doubt improved since opening day last season, even before the possible addition of Yu Darvish. Without him, we have a possible opening day rotation that would most likely go Romero, Morrow, Alvarez, Cecil, McGowan. That includes a lot of question marks of course, and is still a very young rotation, but it loaded with potential. You only need to look at Romero’s season last year to show how the Blue Jays pitchers are growing and what they can become. Again, with bounce back seasons from Morrow and Cecil, and if McGowan can recapture his 2008 form, the Jays will have a very solid rotation once more. But does the addition of Darvish provide a greater boost to the Jays than Fielder?

Consider the bigger picture. The case for Fielder is a strong one. Prince Fielder is a very big and fearsome bat, and there is little doubt he can handle the pressure of the AL East and is a proven talent. However, in signing Fielder to a contract, the Jays would need to surrender one of their extremely valuable draft picks, and sign him to contract that, at this point, is likely longer than they’d want to. Not to mention that first base and DH are currently filled and either Adam Lind or Edwin Encarncion would likely have to be traded, in a move that would limit the value of either asset and thus limit the return. So in order for the Jays to grab Fielder, they would have to surrender a draft pick, give up at least one big league talent, and commit to a very large amount of money. Yet the cost of adding Yu Darvish is significantly less, and provides a much bigger impact when you look at the ramifications. Adding Darvish does not cost any draft picks, and will not force a major league talent out of the club. If Darvish does join the Jays, he will join the rotation and most likely Brett Cecil will join the bullpen, but Henderson Alvarez could also be pushed to the bullpen as well. He is an “unproven” MLB level talent, but the amount of risk for this to blow-up is significantly reduced. The worst case scenario for adding either Darvish or Fielder is the always the risk of injury. No matter how much either cost, if both end their careers early due to injury, the cost of Darvish will only be money, where the cost for Fielder could be future All-Stars as well.

So what is the best path? Do the Jays contend in the tough AL East by hoping to improve their potent line-up to go head-to-head with offensive juggernauts like the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox, or do they boost their rotation with more top-tier pitching talents and shut down their bats before they become an issue? I suppose it’s a personal preference in the end, but I also think it wouldn’t be unlike Anthopoulos to do both. Only time will tell now.

What are your thoughts? Offense vs Defense? I’d love to hear them, so add some comments below or feel free to follow me on Twitter (@Bam_86) and let me know that way! Big thanks to @BlueJaysBatBoy and @BlueJays_Giants for the twitter debate that inspired this article!

Yu Know Who!

Yu Know Who!

So the Winter Meetings are over and done. The Angels and Marlins made headlines like never before, and baseball as a whole is on track to spend close to $1.3 Billion this offseason. However, while many expected that this was the offseason the Blue Jays would break out and spend big on a free agent, and that really hasn’t been the case. Not yet at least. While the Blue Jays did managed to make a great trade to obtain their new closer, who should become a core player of the Blue Jays, they haven’t really been players for some names that many fans would’ve liked to have seen become Blue Jays – Prince Fielder for example. You can check out www.JaysfanswantFielder.com to see how badly some fans want a big name. These fans feel that in order to win, you need to spend, and everybody knows that the Rogers own the Blue Jays, and could quite possibly be the richest owners in baseball, so why not spend? Anthopoulos has said that the money is there if he needs it, but has also gone on to say that he does have specific “payroll parameters” to work within. Sounds contradictory, but in reality, it isn’t.

While the Jays have been making great strides forward since Alex Anthopoulos came on board, they still have so much room to improve, which is amazing when you consider how much they have improved since this time last year. Brett Lawrie is now everyone’s favorite new Blue Jay, we can look forward to a full season of Colby Rasmus in centerfield, and we have Kelly Johnson back to solidify the middle infield. No doubt that without the flux these positions went through last year, a solid presence will immediately benefit this team. But fans want the Jays to spend and the Jays have said payroll will rise as attendance rises. A real chicken and egg stagnate. So now with Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes, CJ Wilson, and Mark Buehrle signed on with their new teams, and the with market for Prince Fielder essentially being reset, that could very likely explode at any time, and then the Jays will truly be out of the Fielder chase. So that means there are no big free agents left for the Blue Jays to sign, right? Yu gotta be kidding me.

Enter Yu Darvish, who was posted today from the NPB, the Japanese version of the MLB. In the NPB he owns a career record of 93-38 (a .710 winning percentage), 18 shutouts, and an ERA of 1.99 and a WHIP of 0.98 over 7 professional seasons. In 2011, his ERA was 0.83 compared to a league average of 2.95. In short, he is a phenomenal young pitcher on the rise. Many people like to compare him to Daisuke Matsuzaka (Dice-K) from the Boston Red Sox, but a scouting report from May 2011 has this to say.

Darvish’s most contemporary Japanese comparison has been Boston Red Sox starter, Dice-K. The comparisons between the two pitchers should stop after “country of origin.” Dice-K’s tumultuous major league career is not an indication of the kind of potential Yu Darvish possesses. Major league teams knew exactly how good Dice-K could be. His talent was not on the rise when he made the jump to the major leagues. He was a legend in Japan during high school, and had a solid professional career. By the he switched to the majors, he was a crafty veteran with a well-documented scouting report.

High words of praise, which likely reflect their workloads, and not necessarily their careers as they were both be 26 when they made their MLB debuts. Still others go on to state that a comparison to the original Japanese legend, Hideo Nomo, would be more apt. In my own view, Yu Darvish is a young, controllable player, in a high impact position, with an incredibly high ceiling, and I get the sense he has only touched his potential. Also known as Alex Anthopoulos’s ideal acquisition.

For the Blue Jays, this represents a rare opportunity. They have the chance to acquire a front-of-the-rotation starter, with low miles on his arm, who has had a history of success (even against MLB players), who can be controlled for the next four, five, even six years, and they won’t have to give up any draft picks or any valuable prospects to make it happen – only money. A lot of money. Which begs the question – Will the Blue Jays really put forth a serious bid to obtain Yu Darvish. Thanks to the current system in place, MLB teams have to bid for the rights to simply negotiate with the Japanese players, and then get to sign a contract from there. Dice-K’s winning bid from the Red Sox was more than $51 million dollars, and then signed a contract that was also worth more than $51 million, bringing the total cost of acquiring Dice-K to almost $103 million, and Yu Darvish is expected to top that. We all know that the Blue Jays have the money to make a serious run for Darvish, but there are so many questions beyond that. Is the money available? Do the Blue Jays view Darvish as being worthy of such a large investment? Will they be contending soon enough to make such a large investment worthwhile?

For his recent openness, Anthopoulos has been characteristically vague. When asked how Darvish compared to Dice-K, he replied: “I wouldn’t get into specifics about how good I think a player is going to be or isn’t going to be. Maybe after players are signed and things like that I would be a lot more (open) to commenting about abilities and things like that. But there’s no doubt it he’s a very talented player.” For those unaware, Anthopoulos made a trip to Japan earlier this year to scout Darvish, and it’s hard to imagine he didn’t love what he saw in him. He has every quality Anthopoulos covets, unlike the free agents available in the US, and as previously stated, unlike free agents in the US, can be obtained without losing precious picks or players.

So what are the Blue Jays to do? Well, I am no GM and I may be a little trigger happy, but I can’t see any reason why the Blue Jays shouldn’t make every effort to make Yu Darvish a Blue Jay. The Blue Jays have been big spenders in the international free agent market the last couple years, spending $10 million to obtain Adeiny Hechavarria, and were short on obtaining Aroldis Chapman despite offering $23 million, not to mention all of the spending the Blue Jays have done on the draft in recent years, which thanks to the new CBA will be severely cut down. So the chances of the Blue Jays finding an international free agent of this quality again, likely won’t be happening soon, which is why the time is right, and the time is now. I will say it again. The Blue Jays should make every effort to obtain Yu Darvish. Forget Prince Fielder, forget trades, forget everything. For the next four (business) days, the Blue Jays efforts should be spent making sure that their bid is the winning bid.

If you aren’t sure, just YouTube "Yu Darvish." I'm sure you'll get plenty of results.

Or should I say "YuTube?" Yu decide.

Yu can follow Brandon on Twitter @Bam_86

Reading Between the Lines

Reading Between the Lines

During this week’s baseball meetings in Dallas, Toronto Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos has been more open than usual and while he hasn’t said anything specific, he has managed to say a lot. Contrary to previous reports and beliefs, the Blue Jays do have specific parameters to operate in financially – meaning there really is a budget. He also has made it known that nothing will be leaked from his office, and that if a team is publically attached to player, they probably aren’t in reality. And if you’re hearing a deal is done, be ready to welcome a new player to the Blue Jays (Welcome back Mr. Santos!). But you can hear all of that anywhere, what you might not pick up on, is everything that was said between the lines and how Anthopoulos AKA Mr. Stealth has become a master of using the media just as the media has been using him.

A lot has been said about the relationship between the media and the Toronto Blue Jays, and most of it has centered around the Blue Jays being used as a “go-to team” for rumour mongering, as the team’s policy of not commenting on potential trades or free-agent signings makes them the easy throw-in to any discussion. However, have the Blue Jays been using the media for their own gain as well? There have been some musings, although quiet, that leading up to the days the trade between the Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox was finalized that Nestor Molina’s profile was being bolstered. A day before the trade was announced, several people on twitter commented on how they hadn’t heard much about Nestor Molina all year, and now all of a sudden, he is everywhere they looked, bragging up his skills, abilities, and potential. This is rather convenient if you are attempting to sell that player for the biggest return, which is, arguably, what the Jays got in Santos – a young, controllable, high-ceiling impact player. Now I don’t know if this is tied to Anthopoulos at all, and I seriously doubt it would have impacted Chicago White Sox GM Kenny Williams decision in any serious way, but the coincidence is intriguing. The biggest effect the added Nestor Molina content probably had is giving White Sox fans easy access to a profile of what exactly was good enough to trade away their closer, who was credited with having the best out pitch in baseball in 2011, a very nasty slider, which is built up by his 4-seam fastball that sits around 95 mph - A tough pill to swallow, especially when your team’s GM follows it up with a confirmation that they are now in a rebuilding mode.

Further to Anthopoulos’s uncharacteristic openness, he shared that he felt the team would not be a player in the Prince Fielder chase because they would not go past a five-year commitment to him. This says a number of things, and I’m surprised this hasn’t been expanded upon yet (although maybe it has, I just haven’t seen it yet). Initially it appears as if Anthopoulos is going against his policy and saying that they are not interested in Fielder, which is how some have taken it, but what most see, and what I also see, is that Anthopoulos is saying that if Fielder’s market does become depressed enough that Fielder would be interested in a five-year deal, then the Blue Jays would be in. GREAT! Except that no, no it’s not. What most seem to be missing is that the reason the market for Fielder is slow right now, is for two reasons. 1. Albert Pujols is still available and 2. Fielder’s price and demands are still VERY high. So if it were to get to the point where Fielder is considering five-year deals, his market will explode, especially if Pujols is officially off the market, and at that rate, I can’t see the Brewers not stepping back in and matching/beating offers. I’m sorry Blue Jays fans, but Prince Fielder will not be a Blue Jay come opening day.

You can follow Brandon on Twitter @Bam_86. Hope you all enjoy the new banner!