Offseason Musts and Possibilities

      What is going to put the Blue Jays over the top in 2013? What will make them a perennial contender, hopefully starting next year? It’s not a matter of one missing piece, or one upgrade. It’s a few upgrades and several acquisitions, and an upgrade is not strictly a performance upgrade. I feel the Blue Jays are lacking a true veteran that brings leadership to the table along with steady performance. So let’s take a look at the roster and what needs to be upgraded:

Red	Strong need for upgrade.
Violet	Possible need for upgrade.
Blue	Small-No need for upgrade.

C: Arencibia

1B: Lind

2B: Hechavarria

3B: Lawrie

Bench: Mathis Bench: Cooper Bench: McCoy Bench: Sierra

SS: Escobar              

LF: Davis                  

CF: Rasmus

RF: Bautista

DH: Encarnacion

LRP: Cecil MRP: Lincoln MRP: Delabar MRP: Loup SUP: Santos SUP: Oliver CP: Janssen

1SP: Morrow

2SP: Romero

3SP: Alvarez

4SP: Happ

5SP: Jenkins

            Let’s address the offense first. As you can see, the foundation is there for a solid offense. But there are major gaps at first base, second base, and left field. All of which could be dealt with easily this off-season. Now, let’s start with the players that are in violet, and could possibly be upgraded. These are the players that AA and the Blue Jays could live with next year, players that play their positions to a major league average or slightly better. Basically, the reasoning behind having Arencibia and Escobar defined in this section is because of the players they have behind them; Travis D’arnaud and Adeiny Hechavarria. At this point (most likely) one of each pairing will be traded.

My solution:

C: Trade JPA. Promote Travis D’arnaud

1B: Trade with the Minnesota Twins. Justin Morneau OR Joe Mauer.

2B: Sign Marco Scutaro.

SS: Trade Escobar. Play Hechavarria at SS.

LF: Use Escobar to acquire an outfielder.  

Bench: Acquire Alexi Casilla in the previous trade with the Twins. 

Bench: Send Sierra to Buffalo (AAA). Davis removed from lineup and placed on bench. 

            Now, on to the pitching staff. The Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff has two very different dynamics: A brilliant and youthful bullpen and an injury riddled, underachieving, and depleted starting rotation with no depth. Let us look on the bright side first. The bullpen has one minor problem and that is a lack of a long man to chew innings when a starter cannot go past fifteen outs, but if all goes right and Toronto acquires 2-3 MLB caliber pitchers this offseason that problem is solved by simply moving Chad Jenkins to the pen from the rotation. But where Toronto finds those 2-3 pitchers is the real issue that has arose. After Romero and Alvarez’s dreadful seasons, no one knows how they’ll respond next year. So that uncertainty alone will pressure AA into phone calls looking for starters. Unless Alvarez can develop a league average third pitch his success will comes as far as the bullpen, in my eyes. Happ on the other hand, I don’t mind. If you have a solid 1-4, I don’t think anyone would be terribly disappointed with Happ as the fifth starter in the rotation.

My solution:

SP: Sign Anibal Sanchez

SP: Sign Shaun Marcum OR Brandon McCarthy

SP: Acquire pitcher from Red Sox in exchange for John Farrell. 

SP: Give Romero the 4^th rotation spot until he proves he doesn’t deserve it.

LRP: Send Cecil down for starting depth in Buffalo. Move Jenkins into role.

Blue Jays Batting Order Woes

Picture via -Yahoo Sports 

So far in 2012, there is much to like about the Toronto Blue Jays.  They are a game out of 1st place in the AL East .  It looks like they should finish ahead of Baltimore and should finish ahead of Boston too (especially if the train wreck in Boston keeps giving us things to talk about opposed to their play on the field).  I am on the fence with Eric Thames (just won’t tell that to his face with those biceps starring me down), but he has struggled because he does not have a place in the batting order.  Imagine coming to work every day and finding out your doing a different job with different responsibilities every day.  It’s hard to focus and do good at one particular job. 

One of my complaints is the daily flux in the batting order.  So far in the 17 games the Blue Jays have played, there have been 22 different batting order combinations.  I would like to see that number even out more as the season plays out.  Here is the breakdown in the batting order so far and then I will present what I think is the best batting order, unless any trades or call ups happen.

So far Yunel Escobar, Kelly Johnson and Jose Bautista have not changed in their place in the batting order.  In the 17 games, Yunel Escobar has batted 1^st every game, Johnson 2^nd and Jose Bautista 3^rd.  The one ‘problem’ thus far has been the 14 walks that have been issued to Jose Bautista, and who the cleanup hitter is from night to night.  Bautista has only been knocked in 5 times other than his homeruns (that’s 36% of the time he's been walked – that needs to be higher).

Adam Lind (.211 5-1-6) - has batted 4^th (10 games), 5^th (3 games) and 7^th (2 games).  His best spot in the order so far stats wise is when he batted 4^th – he's batting .282 and has all of his 6 RBI’s in that spot.  He's batting 1 for 18 in the other two spots.

Edwin Encarnacion (.286 9-4-13) – has batted 4^th (7 games), 5^th (9 games), and 6^th (once).  The main idea behind the flip flop with Edwin and Lind is the right-left pitching matchups, but let’s look at the stats.  Edwin is batting .214 with 3 RBI’s in the 4 slot.  But is batting .297 with 7 RBI’s from the 5^th spot.  The one game be batted 6^th he went 3-5 with a 3 run HR.

Brett Lawrie (.294 9-2-11) – has batted 5^th (2 games), 6^th (9 games) and 7^th (6 games).  I know that Farrell wanted Brett to hit up into the order and earn his spot, so it’s tough to gauge now, but let’s again see what the numbers say.  He has 7 hits in 6 games with 2 RBI’s batting 7^th.  He has a .500 avg. batting 5^th with 3 RBI’s and has 6 RBI’s batting 6^th (but also 10 strikeouts).

Eric Thames (.273 6-1-2) – has been moved around and I would say jerked around the most of any of the regular Blue Jays.  He has batted; 5^th (once), 6^th (5 games), 7^th (6 games), 8^th (2 games) and 9^th (1 game).  I feel sorry for the guy, who is trying to prove his place on the team.  Based on his batting average, he has had the most success batting 6^th (.333 2 runs).  Batting 8^th he is batting .400 in games.  Batting 7^th he is hitting .211 with 3 strikeouts.

J.P. Arencibia (.200 4-1-9) – has batted in two spots in the batting order – 8^th (6 games) and 9^th (7 games).  Hitting in the 8 spot he has had 12 strikeouts but his homerun from that spot.  He is however, batting .292 in the 9^th spot with 4 RBI’s.

Colby Rasmus (.242 8-3-9) – Colby has looked great some games hitting home runs with his eyes closed (or its seemed that way), and been ice cold the next day.  He has batted 5^th (once), 7^th (3 games), 8^th (8 games) and 9^th (5 games).  He like Thames has been moved around the most, and it’s shown on the stats sheet.   Batting 5^th, 7^th and 9^th he has a .094 batting average, with 2 RBI’s.  While batting 8^th is hitting .400 and has 7 RBI’s. 

In an ideal world, there would be one batting order that Jays fans could expect to see (withstanding any pitching matchups – personal or the left-right affect).  The numbers don’t lie.  It’s not hard to see what players are excelling at one area in the batting order.  The mentality of batting 3^rd and batting 7^th is night and day.  There are responsibilities and expectations with each spot in the batting order. 

So what is the ideal batting order?  I will use the stats that the Blue Jays players have provided me when they excelled in one spot and their stats in that spot, for the optimal lineup.

1.       Yunel Escobar – SS – Right (.231 with 7 RBI’s)

2.       Kelly Johnson – 2B – Left (.246 with 13 runs)

3.       Jose Bautista – RF – Right (.200 with 9 RBI)

4.       Adam Lind – 1B – Left (.282 with 6 RBI)

5.       Brett Lawrie – 3B – Right (.500 with 3 RBI’s)

6.       Edwin Encarnacion – DH – Right (.600 with 3 RBI’s)

7.       Eric Thames – LF – Left (.211 with 2 runs)

8.       Colby Rasmus – CF – Left (.400 and 7 RBI’s)

9.       J.P. Arencibia – C – Right (.292 and 4 RBI’s)

I would like to see Colby switched with Edwin, but I think Colby has to show more consistency as a batter to be moved up.  I do think he can handle it and will get back to his 2010 numbers where he hit 23 HR and had 85 Runs while stealing 12 bases with St. Louis.  This kid is only 25 and having him batting 6^th I think is where he should end up.  in order to get the other Blue Jay who is struggling offensively, Eric Thames, he needs to find a place in the order.  Having him bat in 5 different places in the batting order in just 15 games is a little much – that’s a new spot in the order every 3 games.  His spot should be at #7.  He has done better at other spots, but that’s the only one left when placing others at their best spot.

If you want some consistency out of the Blue Jays, the batting order needs to be more solidified.  I am glad to see the first inning always the same with Escobar, Johnson setting the plate for Jose.  But like most managers have done, I would just walk Jose every time.  Because the batting order after him has been different every game.  

Comment below with your opinion on what you think the Jays batting order should look like.

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