Closing the Gap From Within

With the Jays in desperate need of a closer, and the consistency of the Blue Jays ownership saying that they won't waste money on something the team doesn't need, the question needs to be asked if there are any suitable candidates on the Jays roster. There are a few options that could fill the role, but I am just going to look at Joel Carreno today.
Last August a starting pitcher for the Las Vegas 51's was called up to pitch in the bullpen for the Toronto Blue Jays. Joel Carreno was put into the pen, and never looked back.His stats after he was called up were ridiculous, yet he got no attention from anybody. Joel had a WHIP of .957, and a ERA of 1.15. His greatest stat from last year in my mind was his ERA+. An average ERA+ is 100, Carreno's 2011 Major League ERA+ was 378,a silly number. There are only two problems that make his stats faulty. The first is that he only pitched in 11 games, with 15.2 innings pitched, and the second is that he didn't pitch in high leverage situations. His aLI, which measures how high a leverage of a situation he pitches in was only .3, with a normal leverage situation being 1.0. So given that he didnt pitch in high leverage situations very much, is he a good fit for the Toronto Blue Jays closing roll in 2012 and beyond?

Carreno is a great middle reliever and spot starter, but would he be able to face the pressure of pitching in the ninth inning?I still think that Casey Janssen is the best player fit for the job who is currently with the Blue Jays, but the possibility remains that AA signs a closer, or pulls off a trade for one.

Comments are appreciated below, or on twitter where you could find and follow me on @Bluejaysplus.

Blue Jays Off Season Transactions:Part 1

The first week of the off-season has come and gone, and the Jays have made some important moves regarding their front office, and their players. Here is a list of all the transactions that have happened since the Blue Jays season ended.

10/04/11-10/30/11
- Dewayne Wise,Rommie Lewis, Chris Woodward,Shawn Camp,Frank Francisco,Kelly Johnson, and Jose Molina filed for free agency
10/21/11
- Blue Jays claim RHP Jesse Chavez off of waivers from the Kansas City Royals
10/31/11
-Blue Jays pick up Edwin Encarnacion's team option, his salary for the 2012 season will be $3.5 million
- Blue Jays decline Jon Rauch's option, making him a free agent
11/02/11
- Blue Jays outright Adam Loewen, and Jesse Carlson to AAA Las Vegas 51's, making them minor league free agents
11/03/11
- Blue Jays sign 16-year-old Venezuelan RHP Jesus Tinoco
11/04/11
- Blue Jays hire former Tampa Bay Devil Rays GM, Chuck Lamar as special assistant to amateur scouting
- Blue Jays trade cash to the Oakland A`s for Canadian RHP Trystan Magnuson

Predictions for the 2012 Blue Jays Season

Last year I thought the Jays would sign Paul Konerko to man first base. Instead, the Blue Jays Front Office decided to move Adam Lind to first, a position in which he thrived at defensively . In his first year playing the position in the MLB, he only committed 4 errors, with the 4th best range factor among 1st baseman at 9.32. This year I think the Jays will sign Yu Darvish to be there #2 starting pitcher, behind All-Star Ricky Romero. The big rostor debate that will only be decided come spring training, if all three players are still with the club is who is going to be the starting left fielder. Travis Snider, Eric Thames, and Adam Loewen can all play the position, and they all have nothing left to prove in the minor leagues. I believe that Eric Thames will get the job as the starting left fielder, with Snider and Loewen both going back to Las Vegas in AAA.Another big question mark that will be decided this winter, or in the spring will be who is manning first base come April 5th next season. Adam Lind had great power numbers this year, considering he missed a month of the season due to injury, but he did not get on base over .300 percent of the time. With David Cooper, you will likely get a .300 average, 10-20 home runs, a great on base percentage, and a whole lot of doubles. Basically, a younger version of the good years that Lyle Overbay had. Also the Blue Jays need to address the hole at second base. I would like to see that hole plugged by the trade market in Brandon Phillips. Finally, the bullpen that the Blue Jays will put together will likely resemble this years, some home grown talent, and some free agent signings. Without further ado, my prediction of what the 2012 Blue Jays 25 man roster will look like.

Starting 9
C JP Arencibia
1B Adam Lind
2B Brandon Phillips
3B Brett Lawrie
SS Yunel Escobar
LF Eric Thames
CF Colby Rasmus
RF Jose Bautista
DH Edwin Encarnacion

Bench
Utility John Mcdonald
Catcher Brian Jeroloman
Outfielder Rajai Davis
First Baseman David Cooper

Pitching Rotation
1 Ricky Romero
2 Yu Darvish
3 Brandon Morrow
4 Henderson Alvarez
5 Dustin McGowan

Bullpen
CL Ryan Madson
SU Casey Janssen
SU Chad Beck
RP Jesse Litsch
RP Joel Carreno
RP Carlos Villanueva
MRP Luis Perez

Feel free to comment with your opinion either in the comment section below, or on twitter. You could find me on twitter by searching up @Bluejaysplus.

The Blue Jay Killer

Everybody can blame the Jays not contending for the playoffs on any stat they want, but I'm in the mood to blame it on the "Blown Save". The Blue Jays had 25 blown saves this season, in only 58 opportunities, that's 43%, a sad number. Imagine being a manager and thinking, there is almost a 1 in 2 chance that my team's lead is not safe.If the Jays only had 15 blown saves this season, and they won the 10 games that they didn't blow the save in, they're tied with the Tampa Bay Rays for the AL Wild Card, and who knows what could have happened. I'm not saying that the alternate reality would have the Jays in the playoffs, but they would be so much closer then 10 games out if they didn't blow as many saves as they did.Now lets take a look at the blown save number for the 8 playoff teams,and the Red Sox, because they deserved to be in the playoffs for 4 months of the seasson

NYY: 16 BS
TB: 12 BS
DET: 10 BS
TEX: 19 BS
PHI: 8 BS
MIL: 19 BS
STL: 26 BS
ARI: 13 BS
BOS: 16 BS

Of those 9 teams, only one, the NL Champion Cardinals have more blown saves than the Jays. It comes to prove one thing, Blown Saves will kill you, or get you into the World Series.

Feel free to leave your comments below, or tweet me them on @bluejaysplus

Game 162: Blue Jays 3 White Sox 2, Time for a Recap

The last game of the season has been played, and the Blue Jays season is officially over. The young and energetic team pulled off a come from behind win to beat the White Sox, and to finish the seasona t .500, going 81-81. The team's record this season defines there season, average. There were the good moments, like the production they got from three key rookies, and the bad ones, like the inconsistent starters, and the consistintley horrible bullpen. Henderson Alvarez, Eric Thames, and JP Arencibia highlighted the season by showing off there talents at such young ages, and made Canadians hopeful that the Jays have a strong young nucleus that will compete for a championship in coming years. But to go along with all the amazing rookies, there was the one bad one. SP Kyle Drabek pitched a wonderful first game of the season when he improved the Jays to 2-0 on April 2nd, but after that is was like he was just throwing balls at the catcher, and was hoping they would land somewhere in the strike zone. Drabek walked 55 batters this season in just 78.2 innings pitched, and had a WHIP of 1.805. The only good thing about Kyle Drabek's season was that his WHIP and his ERA were much better than those of Roy Halladay when he was still young.

Before the season AA signed Jose Bautista to a 5 year contract extension, base on the fact that he had one great season. Most fans and writers said that the Jays just blew 65 million dollars because Bautista's season was a fluke, and that he would never be able to come close to the season he had. Jose didnt put up the same numbers he put up last year, he put up better. He had a .304 batting average, he was walked 131 times, hit 43 home runs, had an OPS of 1.060, an OPS+ of 184, and a WAR of 8.6. Once again, AA came out on top of a deal, cand proved the whole world wrong.

What would a season recap be without mentioning the return of pitcher Dustin McGowan. McGowan last pitched on July 7th 2008, before having two surgeries on his shoulder, and one on his knee. McGowan came back to the majors this month, and was firing the ball to home plate. Dustin will likely contend for a spot in the Blue Jays 2012 rotation, but could end up in the bullpen if other pitchers have better spring training's then him.

In December of last off-season AA made a move that nobody saw coming. He traded Jays ace Shaun Marcum to the Brewers for Canadian prospect Brett Lawrie. Lawrie was on the eve of his call up to the bigs after ripping apart AAA on May 31st when he was hit by a pitch and broke his hand. Brett would finally be called up to the Jays in August, and he was terrific. He hit 9 home runs, drove in 25 rbi's and had a war of 2.8 in just 43 games. Lawrie single handedly increased Blue Jays attendance, and will be one of the jays best player in years to come.

Ricky Romero came into the season as the Jays 3rd opening day starter in as many years, and not alot of people expected him to play as good as he did. Romero was an all-star, had an ERA of 2.92 and a WHIP of 1.138 in his unbelievable season. Romero will likely finish in the top 10 vote getters for the 2011 AL Cy Young award.

2011 was witness to a lot of memories for the Jays, from being no-hit by Justin Verlander, to welcoming Roy Halladay back with a home run off of the bat by Jose Bautista, it was truly an exciting season. The Blue Jays look to start a playoff run next year, and will have a new logo next season as well, so it is good-bye to the scripted Jays Logo, and hello to a mystery logo still not revealed by the club, although there was a picture leaked.My next post, which should be up soon will be about the one stat that caused the Jays to not be playoff contenders this season.

Feel free to leave comments on here, or by tweeting me on @bluejaysplus

Week in Review- Vancouver Canadians (A)

Week of August 15th-21st

2nd Half Record: 10-17 4th and last place in the West division of the Northwest league, 8.0 games back

Overall Record: 34-31

Statistical Summary: The same player just keeps on producing for the Canadians, and he doesn’t look like he is going to let up in the near future. Jonathan Berti, the 559th overall pick in the 2011 rule 4 draft, or first-year player draft is ripping up the Northwest league, and he is doing it in every facet of the game. Berti is batting .310, while driving in 20 and stealing 20 bases in 206 plate appearances this season. To go along with his remarkable offence is his marvellous defence. Berti has 5.02 RF/G (putouts+ assists /GP) this season, to compare that to a Gold Glover’s numbers, Robinson Cano had a RF/G of 4.89 last season when he won a gold glove. With Aaron Hill being traded today, and Kelly Johnson struggling, Berti might be with the Jays in the near future, not next year, but maybe in 2013 or mid 2014.

Games Summary: The Vancouver Canadians’ elimination number is down to 4 games after they went 4-3 this past week, and fell 1 more game out of the division race to eight games back. The Canadians took two out of three from the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes, outscoring them by only 1 run, 13-12. The Canadians’ playoff hopes are over, but it’s a good time to be a fan of the Canadians as they always play exciting ball.

Player of the Week: Jonathan Jones,OF: 10-31, .322 AVG, 3 RBI’s, 2 BB’s, 2 SB’s

Pitcher of the Week: Phillip Brua, #6, P: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 0 BB, 1.00 WHIP, 0.00 ERA, 3 GP

Oddity: On Saturday night Vancouver Canadians’ pitcher, Alex Pepe, threw 1 no hit inning, but gave up 3 earned runs. Pepe walked 4, threw 2 wild pitches, and made an error when he completed this oddity.

"I'll Be Back"

The Toronto Blue Jays have traded 2B Aaron Hill and INF John McDonald to the Arizona Diamondbacks for 2B Kelly Johnson,who is a free agent after this season.Jays Gm AA said that Johnny Mac approached him asking to be traded into a contending team, so he can witness the postseason, and bring back that experience next season in Toronto. Johnson is having an off-year this season batting only .211 with 49 home runs in 114 games this season for the D-backs. McDonald is a superb defender who is the city of Toronto's favorite sports player, and is batting .250 in 168 at bats this season for the Jays. Hill has had two straight disappointing seasons since winning the silver slugger for second basemen in 2009. He is batting .225 with an OPS of .585 in the final year of his contract. To fill the extra spot on the roster Brian Jeroloman has been called up from AAA Las Vegas, and will not be a starter.

Week in Review- Vancouver Canadians (A)

Week of August 8th-14th

2nd Half Record: 7-14 4th and last place in the West Division, 7.0 games back of first

Overall Record: 31-28

Statistical Summary: The definition of a bad week to start “week in reviews” for any team was displayed this week by the Canadians. The C’s went 1-6 while only scoring 20 runs compared to their opponents 43, more than double the Canadians’ output. The pitchers combined ERA this week was 6.86, an amazing ERA, for a 5 year old, not for pitchers that are supposed to be future Major League Ballplayers.

Games Summary: On Sunday night the C’s won by a score of 7-3 to complete their 8 game road trip which took place in two cities, a three game set in Everett versus the Aquasox, and a five gamer in Yakima against the Bears. With that road stand in which they went 1-7 in over, the C’s dropped their overall road record to 12-18, compared to their 20-10 home record. If The Canadians want to make one final playoffs push then they need to do a better job winning games on the road, and there pitching and defense needs to improve, as those two things are the key components of winning and the C’s have been struggling with that.

Player of the Week- Nicholas Baligod #12 OF: 8-25, .320 AVG, 3 R, 1 2B, 5 BB, .433 OBP

Pitchers of the Week- Blake Mcfarland #26 RHP: 2 GS, 10 IP, 1-1, 11 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 0 HR, 1.30 WHIP, 4.50 ERA

Called Up: Noah Syndergard was called up to the Canadians from the Bluefield Blue Jays 3 weeks ago and has continued to pitch well so far in A ball. Syndergard has a 2.77 ERA in 3 starts so far with the Canadians, and will look to lower that tomorrow in Vancouver versus the Everett Aquasox.

Who is the Jays Catcher of the Future?

One thing that doesn’t bother general managers is having too much depth. But when a team has three prospects that all play the same position, and all have different qualities, it becomes a tough decision on who to keep, and who to trade away. For the Jays, the problem is having three top notch catching prospects.

The first prospect is J.P Arencibia, who is tied for the lead in home runs in the MLB with 18 by a catcher with Mike Napoli and Brian McCann, but has an abysmal .214 average. The second is Travis d’Arnaud, who is amazing at everything offensively, but he is a below average fielder, throwing out only almost a quarter of the runners that try to steal a base off of him for his career. The last catching prospect, who is currently playing for the Dunedin Blue Jays is A.J Jimenez. Jimenez is a well above average defender, throwing out 41% of base runners in his career, and has a very solid average of .302 this year.

Arencibia is in the MLB now, d’Arnaud will likely be the starter in AAA next season, and Jimenez will likely be the starter in AA next season, so this issue doesn’t need to be addressed until at least 2013 because that is when there will be two players ready for the MLB. Now let’s compare the players 2011 stats to see if the problem occurred now, who should get the Jays starting job at catcher.

J.P Arencibia: 88 GP, 313 AB, 343 PA, 23% CS% (Defensive)
.214 AVG, .280 OBP, .447 SLG, .727 OPS
13 2B, 3 3B, 18 HR, 52 RBI, 26 BB, 98 K

Travis d’Arnaud: 92 GP, 333 AB, 375 PA, 27% CS% (Defensive)
.324 AVG, .394 OBP, .550 SLG, .943 OPS
30 2B, 0 3B, 15 HR, 58 RBI, 30 BB, 74 K

A.J Jimenez: 86 GP, 321 AB, 354 PA, 42% CS% (Defensive)
.302 AVG, .349 OBP, .402 SLG, .751 OPS
21 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 36 RBI, 23 BB, 52 K

If I was faced with this problem I would likely have d’Arnaud as my starting catcher, because he gets on base the most out of all three, and that is what I care about the most. As my backup I would want Arencibia because he has the most power, and he would be able to generate offense when he comes in to a game as a pinch hitter, and still produce when he gets the start as DH or C when d’Arnaud. But remember that all three players are young and there is really no way to predict what they are going to do in the future. I see Jimenez getting traded next year at the trading deadline to fill whatever gap they need to fill in order to contend.

Comments are welcomed on who you would want as your starting catcher and backup catcher if you had to choose between the three.

Follow me on twitter @bluejaysplus.

Alvarez Officially Called Up, Will Start Wednesday

The Jays have made the move to call up RHP Henderson Alvarez from AAA Las Vegas to make the start Wednesday night vs. the Oakland A's.Going back down to AAA is Wil Ledezma, who has 9.00 ERA with a 2.33 WHIP in 3.0 innings pitched this year with the Jays. Ledezma has a 4.63 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP this season in 46.2 innings pitched for the 51's. Alvarez is the second 21 year old prospect to be called up by the Jays in the past week, the first is the one and only 3B Brett Lawrie.

Henderson Alvarez to be Called up to Make Start on Friday?

Rumors have been circulating today that 21 year old pitching prospect Henderson Alvarez is going to be called up to be the Jays new 5th starter after Carlos Villanueva was placed on the 15-day DL. It has been posted by a newspaper in Venezuela, and the rumours have been floating around the twitter atmosphere the entire afternoon.Alvarez is 8-4 this season in AA New Hampshire, with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP.Alvarez has touched 100 MPH a couple of times this season on the radar gun. Although Alvarez has a very fast fastball, he doesn't sacrifice control because of it, as he only has walked 17 this season in 88.0 innings pitched.

Update: Jays beat reporter Gregor Chisholm has confirmed that Alvarez will be called up to make Friday's start in place of Carlos Villanueva

Week in Review- Dunedin Blue Jays (A+)

August 1st to 7th

Record: 3-3

2nd Half Record: 22-21 T-2nd place, 2.0 games back of first

Overall Record: 61-52

Statistical Summary:
In the three wins that the Jays had this week, they outscored their opponents 29-5, yes a margin of 24 runs. But the best news from the week isn’t how amazing their offence performed, scoring 47 runs during the 6 games that they played, it was the pitchers only allowing 5 runs in the Jays 3 wins, an era of 1.85. If it was three weeks ago, the number wouldn’t surprise me because the Jays lost there two best pitchers, Deck McGuire and Chad Jenkins when they were called up to New Hampshire, but instead of having 4 aces, they only have 2 now. Although they lost two great pitchers, the “Baby Jays” still have Nestor Molina, and Drew Hutchison to help them make one last push for the playoffs in August.

Games Summary:
The Jays split 6 games this week going 3-3, but two of those losses came with walk-off victories for their opponents, so overall you have to say it was a good week because if a little bit more luck was on the Jays’ side, then we are looking at a 5-1 week, and the Jays would have been a lot closer to the playoffs.

Player of the Week:
Brian Van Kirk: 8-23 (.347) 6 R’s,1 2B,2 HR’s,10 RBI’s,3 BB’s

Pitcher of the Week:
Ryan Tepera: 7 I.P, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER,1 BB, 7K, HR 0.00 ERA, 0.71 WHIP

Rehab News:
RHP Dustin McGowan pitched his final game in Dunedin on Friday night, and he was terrific. McGowan threw 3 shutout innings, giving up 2 hits. The 29 year old pitcher is recovering from multiple surgeries to his shoulder, and will be making his next rehab start in New Hampshire this week. The flamethrower McGowan is regaining his velocity, which seemed to be returning as he struck out 4 while only walking 1 in what might be one of his final starts before coming back to Toronto. McGowan hasn’t pitched in the MLB since 2008.

Anthony Gose:Future 5 Tool Player?

Last year, when the Toronto Blue Jays traded first-baseman, Brett Wallace, to the Houston Astros for outfielder, Anthony Gose, many wondered what the Blue Jays received. While Gose was described as a solid outfielder with a high-quality arm, excellent range, and ridiculous speed, many questioned if he could hit for average and if he could hit for power.
In his first full season in Toronto’s system he has answered the power question, by increasing his home run total for the third straight year; in fact, this season he has already hit 11 home runs, the latest coming last night. To go along with his 11 homers he has also hit 17 doubles and 6 triples for the New Hampshire Fisher Cats. Unfortunately, his average, however, has remained around the .250 mark, comparable to the rest of his career in the minor leagues.
Making up for his inconsistency at the plate, is his consistency in the field. His fielding has been phenomenal in 2011, committing only 2 errors in 258 chances, giving him a .992 fielding percentage. 9-time gold glove award winner Torii Hunter has a .993 career fielding percentage, only one thousandth of a percent better than the 20 year old prospect.
While Anthony Gose takes a lot of walks (55 so far), he strikes out more than double that amount by doing so 113 times, which is almost 25% of his plate appearances. When Gose doesn’t strike out and he puts the ball in play, he is batting .335, nearly 80 points higher than his regular average. This average is much higher due to his incredible speed, as he is able to beat out plenty of grounders, and reach base via infield hits.
Another stat that makes him such a useful player is his on base percentage which currently stands at .355. What makes him an even bigger threat is that when he does get on base, his speed becomes one of his greatest assets. Gose has already surpassed all expectations by stealing 50 bases in 65 attempts this season. To make this even more impressive, he has stolen 50 bases, yet has only had the opportunity to steal152 times, thus indicating that he is stealing a base almost a third of the time.
While his speed is a huge advantage for Gose, the young player still needs to focus on when to run and when not to. Members from the Blue Jays’ organization have announced that if he does not improve his base running IQ, he will not be in the majors anytime soon. That being said, if he does improve in that category then there is no doubt that he will be able to lead the league in the future in stolen bases. In fact, he is currently on pace to lead his league in stolen bases for the third straight year.
If Gose does improve his wild swinging ways, and continues his growth in power numbers, and works on learning the right opportunity to steal, then there is no question that by the time he makes it to the Majors, people will be mentioning 5-tools next to Anthony Gose’s name.

Lawrie gets Called up, Snider Demoted

The long awaited arrival of the 13th best prospect in the MLB has come,but it comes at a price. Brett Lawrie, the third baseman from Langley,British Columbia who was ripping up AAA when he was on the eve of his call-up on May 31st before he was hit by a pitch on his hand and broke it, was batting .353 with a 1.076 ops in AAA Las Vegas. Too make room on the 25 man roster Travis Snider was sent back down to Vegas, not to work on his swing, but because he was not producing. Jays GM Alex Anthopoulous said that because Edwin Encarnacion is starting to heat up, it was between Snider and OF Eric Thames to be sent down, but Snider was chosen.He also said it could have gone either way. Lawrie will make his MLB debut on Friday night in Baltimore. The pitcher he will face is righty Tommy Hunter, who is 1-1 with a 3.31 era in 16.1 innings this season with Texas and Baltimore.

RHP Carlos Villanueva was placed on the 15 day DL today with a right forearm strain. Villanueva is 6-3 with a 4.24 era in 26 games, 13 starts for the Jays this season. Luis Perez was recalled from AAA to take his place.Perez is 1-2 with a 3.57 era in 24 games with the Jays this year.

When Alex Wants, Alex Gets

Since last off-season Alex Anthopoulos had been targeting CF Colby Rasmus from the St. Louis Cardinals. He tried in the off-season, he tried in June, but both times he failed. Today, on July 27th he finally got what he wanted. But in order to do that he had to pull off a trade with the Chicago White Sox first. AA traded Jason Frasor and Zach Stewart to the White Sox for Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahen. AA then flipped Jackson,Mark Zep,Corey Patterson, Octavio Dotel and 3 players to be named later or cash considerations for Colby Rasmus, Brian Tallet, Trevor Miller, and P.J Walters. The Cardinals wanted Rasmus off there team because he wasn't listening to there coaches, but if I were him, I wouldn't want to listen to their coaches either. They don't have good coaches too develop a young player like Rasmus, so in my opinion Rasmus was right to be listening to his father instead of the Cardinals coaches.
Rasmus is going to be a 5-tool player in the near future, and that is why the Jays are the clear winner of this three way trade. The Jays gave up relievers that wouldn't be on this team next year, and got the only player in the 12 player deal that has a good future. AA got rid of a horrible outfielder,and has pulled off another trade in which he is the winner.

With this trade finally giving the Jays a CF after Vernon Wells was traded in January, the lineup for 2012 and beyond comes into picture now. Maybe a few tweaks will come in 2013 with the arrivals of speedster Anthony Gose, Catcher Travis D'arnaud and defensive wizard Adeiny Hech. Aaron Hill also might not be in the lineup in 2012, but my guess is that he signs a new contract in the off-season after AA doesn't pick up his options. This is how i see the lineup being in 2012, and if the Jays have decent pitching next season, I see them making the playoffs 100%.

C-J.P Arencibia
1B-Adam Lind
2B-Aaron Hill
3B-Brett Lawrie
SS-Yunel Escobar
LF-Travis Snider
CF-Colby Rasmus
RF-Jose Bautista
DH-Eric Thames

Ricky Romero threw 8.1 beautiful shutout innings as the Jays beat the Orioles 3-0 to even the series at 1. The rubber match goes tomorrow at 7:07 PM, Carlos Villanueva takes the mound when Colby Rasmus makes his Blue Jays debut.